저자: TomLee · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 후 조정은 좋은 뉴스 선반영 때문이며, 시장이 대형 기술주에서 중소형주로 로테이션 중이라고 봄. 연준 금리인하 기대로 경기민감주·중소형주 수혜 전망. 크레이그 존슨은 시장 확대(broadening)를 강조하며 중형주·금융주에 긍정적. 한편 AI 기대치가 실적을 앞서가고 있어 엔비디아 자체는 기업으로 탁월하지만 투자자는 신중해야 한다는 반론도 제시됨. 애널리스트들은 엔비디아 목표가 상향(138달러, 200달러)을 제시하며 일시적 하락을 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
major stock indices faced a turbulent trading session on Thursday with the Dow S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closing down however the real drama played out in individual stocks like Nvidia Tesla Faraday future and others that saw eye popping swings a key Semiconductor Company Inked a strategic Taiwan supply chain partnership cementing its dominance in an emerging technology space an electric vehicle maker battled external winds despite developments on key industry issues meanwhile a more speculative electric vehicle firm defied gravity skyrocketing over 100% in a single day wild trading fueled by social media Buzz according to One technical analyst this volatility highlights the market broadening Beyond Mega cap tech stocks a shifting composition opens opportunities in medium-sized companies as well one beaten down AI leader seems poised for a rebound given its nextg processors upcoming earnings beat and bullish analyst ratings temporary weakness could offer an entry point in short today's roller coaster action provided lessons on technological innovation social media's impact and evolving Market breadth stay tuned as we dig deeper into the drivers behind these dramatic swings Tom um great to see you long time no speak first and foremost what's what's your mark your reaction to how the market is processed and video's numbers it uh of course fell initially in the pre-market yesterday morning it was doing all right and then it did did close more meaningfully down by the end of the session yesterday well I I think Nvidia is one of these stocks that has become part of like a stock market lore almost everyone has a position and I don't think the results and the earnings changed anyone's Minds about Ai and the central Ro it's playing in in both Global productivity but also nvidia's role but it I think the selloff tells you that a lot of good news was priced in I think that's why uh the stock fell it didn't take the broader Market down I think that was kind of a a positive uh outcome and I think it just shows you that there's room for a lot of rotation and and I think that it's revealing that small caps is one of the groups benefiting from that rotation let's talk about that rotation Tom and the extent to which there's still a long way to go if you're looking at the valuations of some of those sectors that haven't done so well in recent months uh and Years or or whether things have bounced enough across the board that you start to get a little bit concerned about valuations for the entire Market not just the nvidias of this world um well valuations are definitely something our clients are asking us about because uh you know the equity markets have been rising for several years but the idea of a rotation I I think is grounded on a couple of things one is that the fed's rate path is lower and that benefits cyclical stocks and small caps and we know there's also a lot of cash on the sidelines and investors drisk uh because of you know the the Yen crisis and and just general concerns about the summer major US indices experienced notable declines on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0 .4% to 4072785786 to 17619 35 among the stocks capturing the attention of retail Traders and investors Nvidia Corporation Trump media and Technology Group cor Faraday future intelligent Electric Inc Cava Group Inc and Tesla Inc each had newsworthy performances these companies key players in their respective Industries are driving significant conversations amid their unique developments the dramatic moves in these stocks present potential opportunities for investors especially as the market broadens beyond the traditional major Players let's delve into the key events and figures that defined the trading day but before we go through ioday's video where we reveal the star of this week I was Craig Johnson Piper Sandler Chief Market technician uh Craig good morning good morning thanks for having me on you know Craig I guess we're showing the chart here the S&P 500 along with uh what is that the 200 day average and we had the correction that culminated a few weeks ago I guess big picture if you don't want to overthink it you say well it's an uptrend it's been an uptrend it didn't really violate anything on the downside we've had rotation of of leadership and maybe the Market's broadened out what's not to like with the FED going to cut rates is there anything that you would bring up to say uh that we should be I guess overthinking it beyond that you know Michael as you look at this Market you don't want to overthink this Market but there is something we do need to take into consideration is the makeup of this Market we need to to be thinking about large cap versus small cap versus midcap in this market right now and you come back and you look at what Nvidia did last night amazing results on the fundamental side but Michael as you know stocks are made up of two things you got your fundamentals and you got your technicals two parts of it and right now you come back and you look at a lot of these mag s stocks they're not making the same new highs like we've seen before you can actually find some better-looking stocks in this midcap world uh that look a lot more constructive and I think that's sort of the change is happening this is a market that's broadening out that doesn't have to be led by just the Meg 7 the star of the show this week has undeniably been Nvidia Corporation nvda despite a fall of 3.70% to close at 12374 nvidia's collaboration with Taiwanese rail kit supplier nanen International Co for its gb200 artificial intelligence servers marks a significant entry into nvidia's supply chain this partnership underscores nvidia's leadership position in the AI sector as it continues to innovate with its Blackwell processors according to the Wall Street Journal these processors are nearly double the size of their predecessors packing 2.6 times more transistors Craig Johnson Chief Market technician at Piper Sandler highlighted on cnbc's squawkbox that the market is broadening its Horizons Johnson underscored the impressive quarterly earnings results from Nvidia stressing that we should not overanalyze but understand the Market's evolving composition he points out that you can find strong investment opportunities in the midcap world too suggesting a shift away from the usual Magnificent Seven stocks like Nvidia and Tesla and speaking of Tesla TSLA the company's shares fell by 5.65% to close at 21066 despite the drop Tesla's ongoing developments including tax tackling industry specific issues and the delays in the roll out of full self-driving technology for the Cyber truck keep it in the headlines a quirky quip among Market enthusiasts goes investing in Tesla is like riding one of its roller coaster test drives thrilling but not for the faint-hearted but that's not all of it so let's keep rolling if it broadens out and this has been I think something that's so many have been pining for for so long it makes stock picking easier people are not comfortable being hypercon traded in a few names but can the broader indexes manage to hold up if you do actually have that that transfer if I think back to the early 2000s when you had a similarly concentrated Market uh that did broaden out well it broadened out in the context of the S&P 500 going down by almost half over the course of a couple of years even as small caps outperformed I think you absolutely can see this happen again I understand the math of the mag 7 how large they are in terms of the uh uh in terms of the market caps but what if we just see these companies just sort of consolidate sideways why do they have to go down I mean they're great companies they just need a break take a breather and then below the surface uh we can find some of these things like Semtech and some of these other uh good-look semiconductor companies pick up the performance that are making new highs right now and within uh let's say smaller stocks or just outside the Magnificent 7 are we talking about defensive areas you're talking about economically cical because there has been a little bit of a tone shift in the last few weeks you know Michael with the FED looking to cut which seems like a certainty at this point in time we do know from going back in history that financials should definitely outperform and if we go through and start looking at some of the regional Banks or you start looking at companies uh such as CBOE or ice or some of these others they all look pretty constructive they all look like they're setting themselves up to take another leg higher and that's part of the broadening process that we could see so it can be those interest sensitive names it can be some of the smid capap techs and certainly we could also see some of the Industrials with a you know reshoring trade continuing to to play out in contrast Faraday future intelligent Electric Inc ffi saw an astonishing rise of 123.
196% to close at $84 the stock has been trending across social media platforms like stock twits and Yahoo finance this surge comes despite an NTSB investigation into a Tesla semi showing the unpredictable nature of the market and the power of social media in affecting stock prices meanwhile Trump media and Technology Group Corp experienced a volatile day with a 6.20% drop to close at 22.7 the Stock's volatility is tied closely to the political landscape particularly with the momentum of the 2024 presidential campaign it serves as a reminder of how external factors can dramat atically influenced stock performance lastly Cava Group Inc had a milder day with shares slightly Falling by 0.87% to close at $11.98 post earnings reports revealed a 7% beat against the analyst consensus estimate showing a 35.5% increase from the same period last year despite the slight decline the strong earnings performance suggests robust underlying Business Health but before going through it what do you think of open AI do you trust Sam malman not a bit you know I I I saw the prior segment where you were talking about Nvidia and to me Nvidia the company is it deserves to be in whatever Hall of Fame we have for the technology industry because you know you're talking about a company that's business is primarily Hardware they have a ton of software now but it's primarily hardware and they've gotten themselves to 75% gross margins on the back of generative Ai and a whole bunch of other really important Trends in Silicon Valley and I like to distinguish as you know David uh between stocks and companies because right now the issue that Nvidia faces which I think is going to be the issue faced by everyone in uh generative AI is that the promise of AI has gotten way out in front of the results and as dearra just pointed out you know Sam Alman would like to raise money at100 billion valuation off of3 to4 billion do worth of Revenue and that may be fine investors may be totally comfortable with that but that the somebody somewhere along the way needs to ask the question of how long do we wait for Enterprise applications to show productivity and value to customers because at the moment co-pilot seems to have some difficulties in that regard I think it's there's a big promise at companies like Salesforce that they still have to deliver and there are a lot of questions and from an investor point of view I think caution is increasingly going to be the the the watch word here because it doesn't matter how good the chips are in Invidia if you're talk about replacing a trillion dollars worth of cloud services compute over the next few years I mean the S&P 500 the companies are mostly run by Finance people I mean the chances they're going to write off a trillion dollars worth of of capital investment just so they can buy nvidia's new Chips I think that's that may be wishful thinking looking ahead Nvidia offers a compelling case for investment analysts have rated the company positively following its second quarter earnings beat with significant optimism for its future wed Bush analyst Matt Bryson reiterated an outperform rating setting a price target of $138 nvidia's projected third quarter revenues of $32.5 billion and robust Data Center Performance support this Outlook Rosen blat analyst Hans mosesman remains bullish on Nvidia with a price target of $200 he noted nvidia's strong earnings beat driven by generative Ai and networking momentum despite slightly lower growth margins due to Blackwell startup ramp his analysis underscores the company's GPU road map is driven by accelerated Computing and the potential of generative AI with third quarter revenue and EPS projections of $32.5 billion in 73 cents and significant Aid driven infrastructure growth Nvidia is posited for strong future performance the Stock's temporary dip appears to be a buying opportunity given the company's leadership position in a AI development and substantial growth potential as we wrap up the current position of Nvidia sits at a Crossroads of innovation and Market Evolution investors willing to ride the wave of technological advancements may find Nvidia A fitting choice for their portfolios what are your thoughts on this Dynamic Market landscape and nvidia's potential
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