저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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미국 채권시장(10년물 4.6%대)과 강달러가 주식시장의 부담으로 작용하며 최근 금리 인하에도 장기금리가 100bp 상승해 채권 자경단이 연준과 엇갈리고 있다고 진단. 시장 기대 금리인하 횟수가 줄어든 점, 상승장이 소수 종목으로 좁혀지고 시장 심리가 과열된 점을 근거로 향후 몇 주간 10~15% 조정 가능성을 제시. 조정 시 매수 기회로 보며 장기 보유 포지션은 유지 권고. 경기침체 가능성은 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
uh but uh we have a market to trade and much larger issues to discuss joining us is Ed yardeni president at yini research uh good evening to you Ed it's really kind of you uh to take time out on uh Sunday evening for you especially when the country is in Holiday mood uh well do you think that this us exceptionalism continues I mean why would people come and put money in any em markets when uh you're getting 4.62 on the US ten year and the dollar continues strong I I think the Bond Market uh is becoming a problem for the stock market we've had an amazing bull market here and in India and some other places as well and I think uh we're going to have u a little bit of indigestion volatility uh crosscurrents rip tides whatever you want to call it I think we're going to have some some trouble in the next several weeks going into the new year and I think at the top of the list certainly has to be the fact that the FED has lowered the federal funds rate by 100 basis points since September 18th and over that same period the bond yield has gone up 100 basis points so my friends the Bond vigilantes are basically disagreeing with what the monetary policy makers are doing and that could become increasingly an issue for the stock market see peing uh the bond yields at 4.6 and the dollar Index at 108 is is is that that even on the cards according to you well I I I think that uh these developments are not surprising to me uh because I did think that uh the economy is more resilient and was stronger than fed officials believed back in September and October when they started to lower rates and announced that they would be beginning it was just to be be beginning of a process of lowering interest rates the markets now have gone from expecting six to seven rate Cuts over the next 12 months thinking maybe it's only going to be one or two and I'm not convinced that we really need any more rate Cuts 100 Bas points is is enough and I remember the last conversation you said that after the you know the banner year that us equities have had you're forecasting a 10 to 15% uh correction but before we get to that in India uh just wanted a quick word on this entire H1B Visa Feud which is erupted online uh how does it impact because Indian it comp compies do depend on H1B Visa so your thoughts I mean trump it makes a lot of sense to me uh if uh if Highly Educated uh experienced workers want to come to the United States we should be encouraging that and so that makes a lot of sense it's uh it it would be good if we could attract some of India's uh great talents but it wouldn't be good for India so you know we're we're definitely seeing a change here with this administ ation to focusing on what's in America's best interest and I think that the president and Elon Musk certainly are right about the fact that uh we have a shortage of skilled workers of Highly Educated workers and if uh students come here to study and uh get good grades and graduate uh I think they should be given the option of uh staying in the United States and working here increasingly though uh you know we live in a global world and there's no particular particular reason why American America's high-tech companies can't hire talent in India and that talent to stay in India and as a matter of fact as we know that's in fact exactly what's happening so I don't really have a problem with the way things are right now uh but uh I don't have a problem with H1B either Ed you know just the words that Trump has used I have many H1B visas on my properties I've been a believer in H1B and I've used it many times it's a great program now he had made uh educational qualifications and the pay filter higher in his previous term and it was it's widely expected uh by The Immigrant population that he may do that further now allow immigration but raise the bar of both education and salaries do you think with this quote uh we can uh believe that he won't be so aggressive well I think uh what the quote States is uh is pretty you know Mak makes sense from his his perspective though I suppose that when he said that on his properties they hired a lot of people with h-1bs he wasn't talking about rocket scientists which is what Elon Musk is talking about and again I think this could actually create uh in addition to all the trade tensions that are out there now we may create the tensions by threatening brain drains from countries that need to keep their brains uh again India has some really great colleges universities a great talented educated people um and I don't know that we really want to start getting into a a conflict with between the United States and India over attracting Talent um again technology companies have no problems at all hiring people in India to work for for them in India and that's should I think that's the way it should mostly continue to be okay just took make words getting back to that 10 to 15% correction that you anticipate uh what would be the key drivers for that one fewer Fed rate Cuts going into this year what else well I I think what else is the Market's had a huge move uh we have seen that the uh move of late has become more concentrated the breadth of the of the rally has narrowed significantly uh there are too many bulls around the sentiment is too bullish from a cont Ian perspective that's actually bearish we don't want to see so many people so excited about the upside potential of the market that because at some point you run out of buyers and it doesn't take much to cause that market to go down when you have a lot of new investors jumping in at the top and certainly if they're jumping into stocks like uh uh micro strategy or Nvidia or even Tesla they're not buying it anywhere near the uh the bottom they're buying it right at the top and that makes them vulnerable to realizing that they got the top and makes them vulnerable for selling we also have a lot of people who have huge capital gains that probably do want to diversify they want to rebalance their portfolios away from uh having too much exposure in some companies and why not take some profits they didn't want to do that at the end of this the year of 2024 because they would have to pay taxes on the capital gains so I think a lot of them are postponing balancing until the beginning of the year and so I think that may also be a factor uh finally Ed what would you be doing with your with say an extra Kitty that comes to you uh would you still be putting our valuations in the US good and you would still be putting it over there uh where would India figure if at all in your pecking order well I I think if we get a uh 10 to 15% correction in the US we probably get something like that in India as well and India of course has the challenge of a strong stronger dollar as the challenge of the FED not easing and uh the bond yield being uh even more attractive here uh so I would say you know if uh if you get a correction that will be a buying opportunity on the other hand if you've got some positions that you've had for a long time and the stocks have done very well I I see nothing wrong with just kind of you know grinning and bearing some correction here but I wouldn't uh be selling longterm positions I I think we're not looking at a bare Market bare markets usually are caused by recessions and there's no reason to expect a recession in the United States or India for that matter anytime soon one final question then what about Trump's inauguration on the 20th of June do you expect that to sorry 20th of Jan do you expect that to throw some curve balls because he is expected to sign 25 executive orders on day one itself yeah absolutely and I think there'll be a lot of confusion about uh how they're going to get implemented Ed I think there will be a lot of controversy about them creating more uncertainty and oh by the way while while we're mentioning other factors that could create volatility uh treasury secretary Janet Yen mentioned that uh sometime around January 14 the treasury may run into the debt ceiling the debt ceiling has not been enforce since 2023 but that just by coincidence it's going to become enforced again uh in on Thursday of this of this week so that's another issue okay okay these speed bumps don't do away uh but I guess they've tackled they were tackled last time with the last minute rap roach M so let's hope that it'll happen this time as well uh Ed yard it's a pleasure having with you we've had we've learned a lot from you all through 2024 and we hope to do that in 25 here is wishing you a gorgeous 2025 thank you
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