저자: EdYardeni,MattAon · 외국인
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Fed가 12/18 0.25%p 인하를 단행했으나 경제가 강해 과도한 인하라는 시각. 금리 인하 후 시장은 매파적 신호로 급락. Yardeni는 미국 증시 10~15% 조정 가능성과 연말 세금 이슈·관세·정부 셧다운 리스크를 언급. Aon은 실적 성장 펀더멘털은 유효하며 조정은 저가 매수 기회, 특히 인도 등 분산투자 매력을 강조. 미국 정치 리스크(머스크-의회 갈등) 언급.
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well the big story is the sharp Wall Street selloff in uh in reaction to the hawkish fomc cut so let's listen into what Fed chair Jerome pwell had to say about the Outlook going ahead today was a was a closer call um but we decided it was the right call because we thought it was uh the best decision to Foster uh achievement of both of our goals maximum employment and price stability we see the risks as two-sided moving too slowly and needlessly undermine economic activity in the labor market or move too quickly and needlessly undermine our progress on inflation so we're trying to steer between those two you know we've done a lot to support economic activity by cutting 100 basis points and um that's a good thing I I think it I support the decision and and I think it was the right decision to make I think from now we are in a place where the risks really are in Balan and we need to see a progress on inflation and that's that's how we're thinking about so it is kind of a new thing we moved pretty quickly to get to here and I think going forward obviously we're going to be moving slower which is consistent with the with the SCP well uh there's a lot to talk about isn't it and Mr pow has given us a lot to talk about Ed yadani is with us he's president of yadani research Matt Aon Chief Market strategist at Raymond James investment is also now with us gentlemen good morning great to have you with us here uh so you know I was saying this Ed earlier actually the conditions remain largely same September economy was looking strong we got a cut here economy largely all data lately has been strong and we got a uh we got we got a sort of very constrained kind of a cut with the denter and then pulling back in 20025 ETC your thoughts Ed what we saw in the market reaction then well no no this really surprises me um I I thought before the September 18th cut that uh they they wouldn't cut or they wouldn't cut by more than 25 basis points I felt the economy was uh resilient was showing a lot of strength and they really hadn't quite accomplished their mission they weren't quite at 2% but they just wouldn't listen to me and they went on and cut it by 50 basis points and then about another 25 basis points in November and yet again today and so they are down 100 basis points but the economy is demonstrating that uh they may be stimulating an economy that's already quite strong and what we've gotten out of that is a melt up in the stock market and now with the FED uh changing its mind and saying you know what maybe we need to slow down here maybe we need to pause for a while the markets had uh a real significant sell-off here but this is a healthy development because I think the market uh I didn't want to see a melt up occurring in here and I don't mind a bit of a correction but uh Ed cor how much of a correction here on the S&P say for example we lost about 3% last night uh this this right yeah well it's it's a it's pretty powerful to the to it was pretty powerful to the upside and it could be pretty powerful to the downside um you know there's still people who have huge capital gains from the bull market that started in October of 2022 and U many of them probably would like to sell but if they sold now they'll have to pay taxes on those gains so I think a lot of people were waiting until January to sell so we could still have some of that ahead of us then of course uh we got the potential for tariffs uh on the day one that Trump enters the White House we have the potential for a government shutdown because uh they once again Congress can't agree on what kind of budget they should have so I I would say that this could last a few weeks into into January and it could be as much as as 10% maybe 15% 10 to 15% correction for uh equities on the car uh Matt hi morning so come in first on the FED projection what you made of it uh the kind of Market reaction that we've had with you know markets nose diving and do you anticipate a correction and one more when could the First Rate cut come we're talking about two but are we in for at least a prolonged pause say for the first six months hey good morning Rema always good to see all of you and I think what we got from the FED today really wasn't all that surprising at the end of the day we we knew with pretty much much certainty that they were going to cut rates today whether they should or shouldn't is a different story but I think what maybe the markets got a little bit spooked up was a confirmation by the FED that inflationary pressures are building and that that the change in the summary of economic projections and the change of the dots is is leaning on the more Hawker side but when I look at the selloff and and I look at what the FED implications are with the totality to to the underlying Market thesis which is earnings growth the fact that we have Broad earnings growth that really for the past two quarters or so has been translating into increased price breath you know the past week or two outstanding those Trends are still there economic growth is still there the reason that that the FED is pulling back a little bit is because growth is still very strong and we're potentially worried about a combination of more progrowth policies intersecting with the uncertainty of what tariffs could look like and so to to me I think these sorts of pullbacks could be good buying opportuni for for the market is as you all know I've been optimistic for a long time and while I might not be willing to step in right now because I just think there's a lack of bids we're heading into the end of the year where you're the S&P 500 was up almost 28% heading into today so I just think a lot of investors don't want to step in and potentially give up gains if they're on the wrong side of the trade but there'll come a point where the market looks very very oversold and the long-term fundamentals of many many companies is going to repel the market higher again so so I would tell investors as I have been use downside opportunistically because nothing that fed has said changes my opinion and whether we get two cuts next year three Cuts next year probably March is is going to be maybe the time where we look for another cut that's still supportive rates are still coming down maybe a little bit more slowly than we originally projected all right got that Matt thanks for that uh well uh good morning gentlemen and welcome to the show Ed you know the last time we ched you said you're not too optimistic about the cuts and you don't expect to see a melt up towards the end of the year boy oh boy you were bang on on that but what's the way ahead from year on the US markets you're saying maybe it corrects 10 to around 15% odd what about uh the Indian markets you know we have had a good run we have pull back a little bit as well uh you know in the recent past but what kind of a correction do you see in the Indian market and where does India now come in the Emerging Market Basket we've got a stronger dollar now we've got a Fed that somewhat less doish uh I'm not sure I would call it hawkish at this point uh but that takes some of the excitement out of Emerging Markets generally and of course the emerging markets that have done the best are the ones where there are profits and profits to be taken in the event of some uh disappointments about uh the outlook for for interest rates particularly in the United States so I think India is prone to the same kind of correction that we're likely to have in the United States but I agree this these are still bull markets I don't see a recession occurring anytime soon and without a recession I think the most so we get is a correction of 10 15% uh Matt just to put numbers to that view you said uh things can get very oversold but what will be very oversold you want to sort of uh put as Ed Ed did you want to put some numbers to it how how much can this go yeah you know I don't even know if we have to hit 10 or 15% down honestly that sort of pullback in the US market I I've been telling clients isn't off the table for 2025 my expectation is that we have a good Market with increased volatility but even a selloff of call it 8% or so I think would be par for this uncertainty we have but it would be healthy to get more long-term investors back into the market um and that's not there's nothing wrong with that sort of a sell-off in the context of a broader long-term bull market so there's definitely room to go and I think India in particular is less prone to that sort of a selloff because you've just gone through a 10% plus pullback and I think you're seeing strong domestic demand the FI demand I think is down because it's it's in sympathy with what's happening in the US and I think your reticence to take on additional risk heading into the end of the year but again the fundamentals look very very strong across a number of companies and those high quality assets like we've talked about before some of my favorite names the auto space the financial space some of those have held up better than the rest of the market so again sticking with quality is another really important way to navigate some of this volatility and you can pick up these high quality assets at a discount during the sell-offs that's a good thing for long-term investors no absolutely uh Ed just one other thing uh new development right which is this uh the the US government shutdown uh which is which now looks likely on Friday because now there is a stop Gap bill but it's not been voted on it doesn't look like it'll be voted on uh Trump and I think uh post the New York close they came out and said that they want the bill to be passed I mean to be debated now and they also want to spending increase uh right I mean uh and and uh you had Mr musk on X uh sort of you know very loudly expressing his views about how people who say yes to this bill should should be voted out how should we read this uh Ed well I I think you put it in the list of things that can go wrong in the short term that might continue to feed this correction I mean that that news that you just mentioned came out today uh in addition to what the Fed was doing so I think the markets are con rightly concerned about uh some confusing signals from monetary policy and fiscal policy and I think uh there was sort of a widespread consensus that uh a lot of things are about to change but they'll unbalance will change in a positive way but it's it's it's never quite that easy it can be quite sloppy and I think it's going to be sloppy for the next several weeks uh until things kind of all settle down and we see what makes it through Congress and what doesn't is it is it a is it a is it the first signs of a bit of a struggle between uh you know Mr musk and his views on I mean he's promised to cut $2 trillion in federal spending and what the rep what what uh the incoming president and Republicans would want to do would want to see happen I mean there's a disagreement there right I mean with with this well look um you know musk is not in the government he's an adviser he's a become a there a bit of a what what would we call a bromance uh between musk and and Trump and maybe there's going to be some stresses and strains along the way but at the end of the day musk is I think going to recognize that the president of the United States is the one who calls the shots but I think he's uh right to point out that uh at some point here we have to end this uh Christmas tree approach to uh dealing with h fiscal policy we just can't keep putting more and more presence under the tree and so I I don't really don't have a problem at all with musk expressing his opinion but at the end of the day people like uh uh representative Johnson who uh is going to head up the Republicans in the house is uh you know has to get the government to work and that may require some compromising it's not going to be a perfect situation for anybody we're in for some uncertainty for sure Matt just a quick word on the Indian markets you spoke about how India is relatively much better placed but um will the FIS continue to remain reticent about investing in India with the dollar Index now at a 2-year high and Crossing 108 yeah you know REM it's a good question it's certainly a headwind to the FI store with respect to India but I think this knee-jerk reaction with the dollar higher I'm not sure how much further that's going to continue or how long that's going to continue so whether or not it moves a little bit higher markets trade a little bit lower in the very very short term again it just creates more of an opportunity but when you come back to whether or not that changes the underlying fundamental growth story The Big secular growth Tailwinds that are driving the investment case for India it doesn't and I think when us investors look for ways to diversify their portfolios especially as these known unknowns I've been talking about with respect to policy moving forward early earlier in the year come to bear I think finding some of those countries where where the growth is a little bit less related to just politics in the US I think that becomes a very important asset and diversifier especially when you look at other places like Europe other parts of Asia you know you look at the issues that are happening in Korea right now Taiwan being enti L driven by semiconductors I think India looks like a very very attractive way to diversify away some of your risk and concentration risk that you have in the US so so I think they will eventually return especially because I think the Chinese story just continues to disappoint and that money I think eventually slowly keeps moving back to India Matt Mr yini thank you very much for joining in for
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