저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 과거 강세장 과열 신호를 근거로 약세 견해를 밝혔지만 실제로는 100% 투자 상태를 유지하며, 2018년은 변동성이 클 것이라고 전망. 시장 상황 진단: 과거 6개월 전부터 중소형주 과열(파티)이 끝나야 한다고 주장했으나 현금 비중은 늘리지 않았다고 설명. 현금 보유 철학: 30년 투자 경력 동안 현금을 거의 보유하지 않았으며 현금은 '적'이라는 입장을 유지. 유동성이 낮은 종목을 주로 보유해 시장과 기업 성과가 호전되기 전까지는 엑시트가 어렵다고 설명. 과열 신호: 부동산 붐 말기처럼 중개인→투자자→개발자→신이 되는 단계가 증주 시장에서도 나타나고, 서브브로커→투자자→컨설턴트→펀드매니저 순으로 과열이 진행된다고 언급. 다만 이것이 추가 하락을 의미하지는 않으며 과열(유포리아)이 식어야 한다는 취지. 레버리지 관련: 장기 투자 관점(10~20년)에서는 차입 투자도 괜찮다고 하나, 주식·시장 단기 매매 관점이라면 차입은 부적절하다고 설명. 현재 시장이 아주 싸지 않다고 판단해 레버리지는 쓰지 않겠다고 밝힘. 개별 종목: 아토(Atul), 사라센터리(Sarah Senary) 등 과거 공격적으로 매수해 회사 지분 5~10%를 보유한 사례 언급. 현재 보유 종목을 유지할 것이며 시장이 결국 오를 것으로 보는 입장. 카르나타카 은행: 한때 비중을 줄였으나(약 40~50%) 여전히 1% 이상 보유. 은행업은 NPA 문제로 신뢰 위기지만 가장 저렴한 민간은행 중 하나로 보고 신임 경영진을 신뢰한다고 밝힘. 단기 이슈는 곧 해결될 것으로 전망. 리스크: 트럼프 관련 변수, 미·중 무역전쟁, 인도·중국 관계 등 2018년 변동성 요인 언급. 건강·스트레스 관리의 중요성도 강조.
다듬은 글
a big picture segment and today we have a very special guest vij kadia managing director of Kia Securities he's very popular with you know investors because you know personally he's also been a great investor both in terms of identifying multibagger ideas and also identifying some themes so J fantastic to have you back and thank you for joining us thank you now I was scanning through your Twitter account um over the weekend and you've been you've been quite bearish for about 5 six months now your tweets have been indicating that there's a party in the midcap space which had started in the month of November de December and Jan and the party had to end so if your view was beish how come you've not raised cash because as per my understanding is that you're fully invested in this market so you've been talking bearish but you've not done something which is in syn with your thoughts exactly your action has not been in sync with your thoughts you know Nik the thing is this that I remember one dialogue of old Hindi movies where the gangster tells the hero yeah something like that so my investment in Market actually does not the exit does not depend on my own thing on wish okay so because I am investing mostly investing in all illiquid stocks so until unless the performance of my company and the performance of the market is not excited I cannot get an exit so this is the first thing and uh secondly in my entire career of say 30 years into investing I do not remember any single day when I was actually in cash even if I sell some shares today I cannot hold the cash in my bank maybe not more than 5 days 10 days or maybe a month so I am okay I I happy about it because I you can say that cash is enemy for me and it reflects in my spending habits also suppose if I have 5,000 rupees in my pocket I go for shopping so that 5,000 rupees will be spent no but suffice to say that uh you're by making that or having that sort of stance you're not putting incremental cash in in the markets at these levels because you're bearish but you're fully invested still fully invested I do not have cash only to feed that's it I do not have Hand Shop okay but you know given that the uh the magnitude of the Fall has only gotten accelerated in the last two months that's February as well as March how is it that 6 months back you actually saw those signs and indicators that were reading that there is a correction in the coming no because it's a very set pattern of investing you know what happens I will give you one example whenever the Boom in real estate comes and it is about to be over that time what happens the Clark who is working with the real estate agent actually he becomes agent and the real estate agent they become investors and the investors become developers and once they become developer that that means they are God then the God who is sitting up actually doesn't he doesn't feel he doesn't like that story that he has become God only so that you uh downturn starts same thing happening in the stock market also sub broker becomes investor investors become consultant consultant become fund managers and fund managers becomes God then you know what happens so all these signs we there in the market it does not mean that market is going to fall further from me I'm not saying that because I the one thing which I did not like in the market was the Euphoria so I what I felt that the Euphoria should die down doesn't doesn't mean that stock will go down 20% or 30% it depend on stock to stock but the sentiment had become so excited that people have really become blind if you talk to uh somebody about that market is going to fall in Twitter they will actually come biting you so all these things actually I I realize maybe this this is the time that market should uh go down although I was invested 100% at that point of time even this point of time also I am invested 100% if you had option to let's say create a leverage position and invest right now do you think this Market is looking attractive again you're fully invested but I'm sure you got capability to raise cash borrow cash and you know deploy back into the market are you smelling and uh spotting that kind of an opportunity where you want to go all in uh you see it depends on what is your approach to the market if you are investing in a business or you are investing in the market or you are investing in the stocks if you are investing in the business then I don't mind which is which is my Approach then I don't mind uh borrow the money and invest into a stock uh provided my Horizon is for 10 or 15 years or 20 years which I every day which I am talking about the long-term investing but if my Approach is to invest in the stocks or the market then actually I think I need to ask my astrologer or my technical chart is where success rate is 10% or 20% the Reon the reason I ask you this question is because we have a common friend raak junjun Wala and what Rak Juna often has claimed on on public platforms is that when he spots an opportunity he he bets on that stock or that idea disproportionately in your case when you identified Atul AO or for that matter when you identified you know Sarah senary you aggressive bought into those stocks you were owning 5 6 10% equity in the company so after the recent fall in the mid and small cap space are you convinced that the stocks which you own you are happy to double them leverage them you may be fully invested but that does not stop you from deploying additional cash by borrowing capital or you know booking profits in some stock which you think you you know run run your Target on no that might happen I can book my profit any day that I myself I don't know and so far borrowing is concerned I don't think that market is so cheap what you are talking about raes actually made this statement maybe in 2013 yes when stocks were very cheap now Market is coming to that level uh at a reasonable level when I bought whatever stocks you are naming like atoto and all those shares they were available dirt cheap at p ratio five for example so I don't think this Market is so cheap so I'm happy with whatever I holding if I stay put if I keep on holding to those stocks I'm happy with that but some of your profits have come down obviously from the top which doesn't worry you at all you believe that it's a market it will eventually go up and it'll the losses will be made up for see very investing you know that this things go together okay so profit is coming down my age is also coming down so what can I do about it nobody can do about it and this is what one should always understand in this market that's said you are uh investing if you are into invest uh investing is a stressful business okay blood pressure and diabetes they are early uh visitors uh you know to an investors so the moment you come out from all those things that it doesn't worry you all these shocks and downswing in the market should not worry you at all because otherwise there is no point of your of your success if you if you are not having a good health if you are not happy if you are not having peace then what is the purpose of your million Millions but Mr K I think we still need to come back to the point that you know you are sounding a bit cautious about the markets going ahead and for your uh you know hundreds and hundreds thousands of followers out there you know they'd be saying what is what are the signs that you are seeing to make that call uh and in Li of that stance how are you you know managing your portfolio no as I said this Market is not very cheap and I expect this 2018 to be very volatile okay why because of various factors maybe because Trump and dump and maybe trade War maybe Indo China relation and so many so many things are there so that does not mean that I will sell my shares and go to Rajasthan that does not mean that okay I am staying put I will hold my shares but at this point of time I'm not comfortable in borrowing money and investing into the market no leverage no leverage you know we've got mahabaleswar Ms the MD and CEO at Karnataka Bank also on the line with us Mr baleswar thanks so much for taking the time out and speaking with us today we've got renan investa vij kadia here first in the studio so I'm going to first go across to vij and find out why Karnataka Bank you sold your why did you bought Karnataka bank and why have you sold uh your position in Karnataka Bank by about 40 50% okay I you said youve not sold anything but in Karnataka Bank as per the BAC data you've sold 30 40 lakh shes I not 34 don't remember but I am I'm still holding more than 1% so glasses half full glasses why is it that you like the story because because of the environment you so I realize that uh as we all know that banking Bank the word has become a dirty word okay I think uh there is an identity crisis into the banking sector yeah well put yeah yeah there is yeah there is you know so I thought ke every quarter and quarter the this problem of NPA is not getting solved and since the stock was liquid and I had opportunity somewhere else so I sold some of my shares with with an expectation that uh if the stock price will go down or even if it doesn't go down I will buy again but right now I don't know when when will I buy or I will not buy but whatever I holding I I think I will hold on to uh those shares and why did I buy because of course it was one of the cheapest banking stock in in India in private so far private bank is concerned and I have full faith in this management even the new management is doing wonders you can see whatever the if you have gone through the press release which came yesterday so they have done exceedingly well so maybe they have some hiccups some short-term issues which should be solved very soon
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