저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 4월 저점에서의 투매(capitulation) 이후인 4월 7일에 새로운 강세장이 시작되었다고 주장하며, 2026년에는 사업 여건이 개선되면서 S&P 500 목표치를 6,600으로 제시합니다. 그는 근원 인플레이션이 하락 추세에 있다고 보는데, 주거비와 자동차보험료가 상승 요인으로서 힘을 잃고 있기 때문이라고 설명합니다. 실질금리가 긴축적인 수준인 만큼 연준의 금리 인하가 예상된다고 보며, 장기물 금리는 아직 우려할 수준이 아니라고 평가합니다. 비트코인에 대해서는 낙관적인 입장으로, 수요가 공급을 웃돌고 있으며 단기적으로는 15만~25만 달러, 장기적으로는 금 시가총액과 비교했을 때 200만~250만 달러 이상의 가치를 가질 수 있다고 전망합니다.
다듬은 글
you know, when at the April lows, we thought we could make a a move back to 5,500, right? 5,900 on the S&P. That's right. But our our fullear target was 6,600. So, I I think that that's still a reasonable expectation. You never changed that. We haven't changed it. Never did. . Tom Lee breaks down datadriven strategies, market trends, and macro insights.
Let's dive in and learn how to invest smarter. Now that I've looked at 2026, I think businesses are in better shape now than they were in February. So, I think making 6600 actually seems more achievable today than it did in February. You think a bull market started April 7th or a new bull market April 7th in everything that cuz the NASDAQ already uh if you just use 20% to measure what is an actual bull market that's people think we need a broader indicate or a you know a broader reason to call something a bull but but at this point we think the S&P is also in a bull market.
Yeah I think that the waterfall decline into the April lows was such a reset of sentiment. you you know people talked about Armageddon and we saw some of the most rapid deleveraging of hedge funds ever and a collapse in investor sentiment and a huge change of positioning. So those are I think things that look like what happens in a bare market and the ISM has never broken above 50 in a sustained way.
Market tops usually need an ISM to stay above 50 for a period of time. So, I think we're at the start of a bull market and as I look at 2026, I think housing could actually be a big big lever to pull next year. What do you think of the recent inflation data? And is it is it real? Is it lasting? Is it going to turn around and head back up because of tariffs?
Were you surprised at those numbers on the last couple of Friday and then a couple uh weeks before then? Well, as you know, the inflation for the last month actually has defied expectations because a lot of people said these shortages would cause a spike and instead core inflation actually has been trending lower.
But to me, inflation was really a story about housing and auto insurance. Those were powering inflation for the last two years. I mean, combined that's 75% of the rise in inflation. Housing is actually now subtracting from inflation month over month. And I think in some ways in on a real-time basis that tells me I I don't think core inflation's actually going to be turning up even if goods prices go up.
You don't know I I kind of agree with Waller's comments. You do agree with Waller's com. Yeah. So you're anticipating cuts, several cuts this year. Well, I think that if core inflation behaves then we are in a a really tight real rate environment, right? Four and a half% monetary policy and two and a half percent or 2% core inflation.
I mean, that's there's a need to actually reduce interest rates. The SEC is stirring the crypto world again, this time with a surprising move that could reshape Bitcoin ETF and staking regulations. The agency has opened a public comment period on a proposed rule change for the Wisdom Tree Bitcoin Fund that would allow inind redemptions, letting investors receive actual Bitcoin instead of cash.
While seemingly technical, this change could make Bitcoin ETF more efficient and tax friendly and better aligned with how commodity ETF like those tracking gold already operate. If approved, Wisdom Trees Fund could become the first US Bitcoin ETF to offer this long requested feature. At the same time, the SEC has ignited controversy over new guidance suggesting some cryptostaking services may not be securities.
This softer stance has triggered backlash from legal experts and even internal disscent. Commissioner Caroline Krenshaw warned that the shift breaks from legal precedent and adds confusion. While former SEC enforcement chief John Reed Stark accused the agency of abandoning its duty. With opposing voices growing louder and internal disagreement intensifying, the SEC faces mounting pressure to clarify its crypto policy.
As public input pours in over the next 21 days, the stakes are high. These decisions could define the future of digital asset regulation in the US. Do you uh Tom at this point think that that interest rates because it doesn't matter what whether we reduce or not would the long end go up if they reduce the short end because of 37 trillion or or this bill that's the big beautiful bill.
Are are there worrisome things on the horizon other than inflation current inflation? Uh well, yeah, the there the US is on an unsustainable sort of path for deficits, but Japan's actually had higher rates and and and their interest rates have been behaving for a long time. I mean, not recently. So, I I think the long end is essentially unpredictable.
When when investors worry about it rising too dramatically, then I think that's when the bond market can have some influence on both the Fed and and the Treasury. But I I I think at these levels, it's not that alarming. So, what's what's Bitcoin uh what is it moving with? Just risk assets at this point.
It got back to an all-time high, which which you were forecasting as well, but now I think what are we 104 this morning, so it's pulled back. Yeah, I think it's consolidating. It makes sense. You know, Bitcoin is responding to global liquidity, which is moving up and I think anticipating a dovish Fed next year.
So, that's a tailwind for Bitcoin. But, you know, Bitwise has a great stat. you know, 95% of all Bitcoin's been mined, but 95% of the world doesn't own Bitcoin. So, I I just think that there's still a huge demand versus supply imbalance, meaning there's a lot more potential buyers of Bitcoin over the next 10 years.
And so, I think there's a lot of upside into your end in into your like 150 target. Yeah. 150, maybe 200, even 250 this year. What 150 to to 200 to even 250. And what what's your you don't have a terminal price on that, do you? Well, it's um I think at a minimum it should have the same network value as gold.
And if you look at above ground gold, it's probably 23 trillion. So that would be, you know, 1.2 million for Bitcoin. But I think Bitcoin is more valuable than gold. So, you know, gold, I mean, Bitcoin could be 2 million, you know, 3 million long term. I mean, even higher. Okay. Thank you. Uh and and we're talking years obviously, but 95% mind.
I don't think the last one is is mine till what 2150 or something. Yeah. It's getting harder and harder. Yeah. I mean depending on how what decimal you want to use, it's probably like you know 20 2040 or something. But yeah. Yeah. But it's Yeah. If you're cutting if you're having something forever, it'll always So what's your terminal value then?
That's what we just Yeah. I mean the final final. He said two and a half million. Two and a half million at the end. Yeah. Or maybe I mean maybe higher or maybe higher. I didn't appreciate at that point. Yeah. I mean it could you know I guess I does that happen at the end after it's all when it's all mined when it's all mined.
Yeah. And there'll be network fees generally or does that happen pre before it's mined? It's like as if Birkshire did a buyback and there was only one share left. What would Birkshire's share price be? The Norwegian block exchange NBX just made headlines with a bold move buying Bitcoin for its treasury.
On June 2, the Oslo based crypto platform announced it had purchased six Bitcoin worth around 633, $700 at the time and plans to increase that total to 10 BTC by the end of the month. The market responded instantly. NBS shares surged by over 138% closing the day at 033 0.38 marking one of the company's strongest trading days since its January 2022 peak.
NBX isn't stopping there. The firm said it's actively raising more capital to expand its Bitcoin holdings and plans to use the cryptocurrency as collateral to issue USDM as stable coin operating on the Cardano blockchain. The Bitcoin will also generate yield and help improve operational efficiency, positioning the company as a digital asset bank.
This bold move echoes other Norwegian companies like Acre ASA, which holds over 1,100 BTC, and brokerage firm K33, which raised $6.2 million to do the same. Even Norway's massive $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund, has indirect Bitcoin exposure. As Bitcoin continues to become part of global financial infrastructure, NBX's strategy reflects a growing trend among companies using crypto to fuel growth and attract forward-thinking investors. .
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