저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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관세는 재고 선적 후 지연 반영되어 곧 물가 급등을 유발하며, 수입 인플레이션이 미국 내로 돌아와 경기침체·스태그플레이션이 올 것이라 주장. 달러 약세와 해외 국채 매도로 미 국채는 하락(금리 상승), 금은 달러 대체 흐름으로 계속 상승할 것이라 전망. 은은 금/은 비율 과도하므로 금보다 더 오를 것으로 봄. 공화당은 중간선거에서 패배할 것이라 예측.
다듬은 글
the tariffs hit right away, right? But the tariffs aren't paid until the goods are imported. And if you look, if you noticed, our trade deficits in the US for the past few months have been off the charts. And so what I think is that a lot of companies saw the tariffs coming and they ordered some inventory.
So they have to work that inventory off first. So those those products can be sold without the tariffs. Now, I think they will raise prices somewhat because they realize that this is their last chance to make money because once they run out of those goods, you know, they have to pay the tariff on the new goods and their customers probably will be priced out of the market, a lot of them.
So, you'll start to see some initial increases in prices, but it won't fully hit until they run out of stuff. And, you know, there's going to be a mad dash. I mean, some people are going to rush to the stores and, you know, they're going to buy new uh sneakers, for example. you know, maybe they'll buy three or four pairs, uh, knowing that, you know, they're going to run, they're going to wear out, they'll want to get another pair, they're going to wear out because all those sneakers are going to get so much more expensive.
So, some of these companies, you know, could see a rush of sales, you know, now until they get use up what they got. Um, and then then their business is going to dry up, you know, substantially. We're going to be reversing a process that, you know, has on the surface been benevolent, but it really wasn't if you understood it.
But now it's going to be uh very sinister. See, what's been happening is we create inflation, printing money, we export it to the rest of the world, and they ship us the stuff that they make. So, we have goods to buy and the money goes abroad and so that keeps prices down and and we get more stuff. Then the foreigners take the dollars they earned and buy our bonds, buy our stocks.
That gives us lower interest rates and a higher stock market. So we get wealthier on paper. We get to borrow cheap and we get all kinds of consumer goods we didn't produce and they're low cost. Right? What's going to happen now is all that inflation is now going to move from Wall Street back to Main Street.
We're not going to have as big trade deficits anymore. So we're not going to be able to export as much of our inflation. It's going to stay here. uh we're going to have more money chasing fewer goods. So a big increase in prices. Foreigners are not going to buy as much US stocks and bonds. So we get a lower stock market and a higher interest rate.
So that's the reverse of what we've been enjoying, right? And so it's going to be the worst, you know, thing for Americans because they're going to be getting poorer uh financially as their cost of living is skyrocketing. Uh and America, many Americans are going to lose their jobs. So, we're going to go through the worst economy uh in modern memory.
Now, I don't think anybody alive today has seen an economy that's going to be as bad as this one. Now, it may get better eventually. You know, maybe we get the benefits of AI and and stuff like that, but in the short run, things are going to get very, very bad. And that's for the Republicans because, you know, Trump just blew them up.
I mean, the Democrats were in disarray. uh you know, the party was really in shambles and this is going to galvanize them because Trump is going to be the villain that did this. Uh they're going to be able to say he inherited a great economy, which he didn't, but then he destroyed it. And uh the Republicans are going to be out of Congress uh in in the midterms.
I mean, the Democrats are going to get the House and the Senate. Let's cut the fluff. Tariffs hit right away, but you don't feel it right away. There's a lag, and we're in that lag right now. Companies knew the tariffs were coming, so what did they do? They front-loaded inventory. They stocked up on sneakers, electronics, furniture, anything and everything before the new taxes kicked in.
That's why you've seen trade deficits explode in recent months. The numbers are off the charts. We imported record amounts of goods, not because the economy was booming, but because the people running the supply chains are smarter than the politicians imposing the tariffs. They said, "Let's get this stuff in now while it's still legal robbery and not actual theft." But here's the punch line.
Once that inventory runs out, it's game over. The shelves won't be empty, but what's on them will come with price tags that make your eyes water. And if you think inflation has already peaked, buckle up because that was just the appetizer. The main course is about to be served and it's going to taste like cardboard dipped in gasoline.
Now, of course, some consumers will see what's coming and panic by. You'll see people rushing to the store to buy extra sneakers, maybe three or four pairs, not because they want to start a collection, but because they know they're not going to be able to afford new ones in six months. That's what inflation does.
It changes behavior. It pulls forward demand. It distorts reality. It makes hoarding look rational and saving look insane. Retailers will get a sugar high from that initial rush. Wall Street will misread it. They'll say, "See, consumer spending is strong." But what they won't understand is that it's not strength.
It's desperation. Because when those shelves are restocked, everything is going to be priced under the new regime. And that regime is one where the US is no longer exporting inflation. It's absorbing it. For decades, we got away with printing dollars and shipping them overseas in exchange for cheap goods.
That's over. We used to export inflation and import deflation. Now, we're going to import inflation and export political dysfunction. And if you think I'm exaggerating, look at the trade data. Look at the treasury market. Look at the gold price. This is the end of an era. For years, the inflation we created didn't show up in main street prices.
It showed up in asset prices, stocks, bonds, real estate. Why? Because foreigners took those printed dollars and recycled them into our markets. They bought treasuries, bought equities, even bought condos in Manhattan. That's what kept rates low and the stock market high. But now the flow is reversing.
Foreigners are no longer recycling those dollars. They're dumping treasuries. They're avoiding US stocks and they're buying gold. And when that capital flow reverses, all of that inflation we used to offload onto the rest of the world comes home. You want to know why rents are surging? Why insurance costs are up double digits?
Why food prices keep rising even though the Fed says inflation is falling? It's because the system is breaking down. The supply chain isn't the only thing that's fractured. The confidence chain is too. Meanwhile, politicians are patting themselves on the back for slowing inflation. But what they're really doing is driving a stake through the heart of the American consumer?
Because the solution they're offering is more government, more regulation, more taxes, more tariffs. Let me ask you something. When has taxing people more ever made them richer? When has restricting trade ever made goods cheaper? Tariffs are a tax on the consumer. Full stop. Anyone who tells you different is either lying or running for office.
Now, I know what some of you are thinking. Peter, aren't we protecting American industry? No, we're not. We're protecting inefficient industries that can't compete globally. And in doing so, we're punishing every single American who relies on affordable goods and services to survive. You want to build a strong manufacturing base?
Great. Start by slashing regulations, lowering corporate taxes, and fixing our energy policy. Not by punishing Americans for buying what they need. But this isn't just about economics. It's about politics. And this is where it gets ugly. Trump launched the tariff war thinking he was going to outnegotiate the world.
That he was going to bring jobs back, boost the economy, and crush China. What he actually did was plant the seeds for a devastating stagflationary crisis, and hand the Democrats a political weapon wrapped in populist rage. The Republicans had a chance. The Democrats were a mess. They had no message, no leadership, no base unity.
But now Trump just gave them a villain. Someone they can blame when the economy goes off a cliff. And make no mistake, it will go off a cliff. Because once the inflation shows up in force, the Fed will be powerless to stop it. Rate hikes won't work. QT won't work. And the people will want someone to blame.
The narrative will be simple. Trump inherited a strong economy and destroyed it. It doesn't matter whether it's true. It only matters that it feels true to the average voter struggling to buy groceries, pay rent, or fill up the gas tank. By the time the midterms roll around, Republicans will be bleeding seats.
The House gone, the Senate flipped. And this won't just be an electoral setback. It'll be a total policy collapse. Because what comes next is not fiscal discipline or economic reform. It's MMT, UBI, green new boondoggles, and more government control over every aspect of your life. You think the last few years were bad.
You haven't seen anything yet. And all of this stems from one root problem. We have been living beyond our means for decades. And the bill has finally come due. We built an economy on consumption without production, on debt without discipline, on politics without principle. And now the foundations are crumbling.
And we're arguing about who gets to rearrange the furniture. It's pathetic. But I'm not just here to rant. I'm here to wake you up because what's coming is going to make 2008 look like a warm-up act. I mean, gold is above 3,100. Uh, you know, we're right near record highs. We set the record high last night.
Um, but gold's going up. It's going to keep going up. Uh, this is ddollarization. It's just the central banks that have been driving it up. Uh, we haven't even gotten the real investor demand yet. That's coming. Uh, retail investors uh in the US are going to be buying gold, but they're going to be buying it at much higher prices.
uh they're going to be buying silver too at much higher prices. Uh you know this is a ddollarization. The dollar is going to go down. I mean today the dollar is down uh by over 2% uh against other fiat currencies. It's one of the biggest moves down in one day in the dollar that I can remember. Uh one of the biggest ever.
Um and this is just the beginning. You know, so many people were predicting that the tariffs would cause the dollar to go up and they thought that would take the sting out of the tariffs because, you know, yes, we'd have to pay the tariffs, but we'd get to buy the foreign goods cheaper with our higher dollar.
Well, instead, the dollar is falling, and that's going to augment uh the the the damage done by the tariffs. So, not only are Americans going to have to pay tariffs on what they import, but what we import is going to cost us more because of the weak dollar. So, you know, it's a double whammy. Well, gold is just noise.
It's just a bunch of trading going on today. The shakeout. Bonds, bonds are rising today. Um, but I think that's temporary. I think bonds are going to fall because inflation is going to erode away their value and a reduction of demand due to a weak dollar is going to lead to lower bond prices. And of course, as the US economy goes deeper into recession and we get larger budget deficits, that increases the supply of bonds to sell and we have fewer demand for those bonds.
Meanwhile, what no one's talking about is over the next four years, uh, about 26 trillion of the 36 trillion national debt matures. So, all that debt has to be rolled over. Who's going to buy that? So, bonds are going down. The only thing that's going to stop that is the Fed going back to QE. But even that'll be temporary because that will create even more inflation which is the worst thing for bonds.
I think the dollar has been the source of you know our artificial economy. Uh we've been able to live beyond our means because we can export dollars to pay for goods. I think that's the process that's going to be reversed and Trump accelerated it with the tariffs. I mean I think there's no question about that's what gold's telling you.
I mean, what are central banks doing when they're buying gold at $3,000 and and not buying treasuries? They're saying that we'd rather own this metal than get 4.5% yield on US Treasury. So, uh they don't trust the treasuries because they don't trust the dollars. So, they want to own gold. And this is a process that is still early and has a long way to go to play out.
You can't price in risk that you don't perceive. That is the problem. The markets don't see how much risk there is. So, let's keep going. We've laid out the groundwork. Tariffs are going to crush the consumer. Inflation is going to come roaring back with a vengeance. And politicians from both parties are too busy pointing fingers to admit that they lit the fuse.
But what's coming next? That's what should really keep you up at night. The American economy isn't just headed into a downturn. It's headed into a structural collapse. The model is broken. We've been pretending that we could consume without producing, borrow without saving, and print without consequences.
And for a while it seemed to work because we exported our problems. We shipped our inflation abroad by running massive trade deficits. We gave the rest of the world our dollars and they gave us their goods. It was a great deal for us. We got TVs, cars, iPhones, sneakers, all while sending IUs. But now it's reversing.
Now the rest of the world is saying no thanks. They don't want our dollars. They don't want our debt. They want real stuff like commodities, real estate, gold, not promises. This is the fatal wound. When the US can no longer export inflation, it has to live with it. And the economy we've built isn't designed to do that.
It can't. We've gutted our industrial base. We've crushed small business with regulation. We've flooded the country with easy money and easy credit, and that's about to blow up in our faces. Now, what happens when inflation stays elevated and the Fed can't raise rates high enough to stop it? That's when confidence evaporates.
That's when foreign buyers finally say, "We're done." They dump treasuries, they dump dollars, and they move to hard assets. And here's where it gets interesting, because this collapse isn't going to be global. Not this time. Let me be clear. I do not believe the world is heading into a synchronized global recession.
In fact, many countries are going to do just fine, maybe even better than fine. Why? Because their factories still work. Their trade relationships are shifting. Their demand is increasingly domestic or regional. You think Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, India, they're all going down with the US economy.
Number fewer goods to Americans, sure, but they're also going to sell more to each other. They're going to build new trade routes, new currency arrangements, new pricing mechanisms, and while America burns, the world will adjust. It's already happening. BRICS is talking about launching a new trade settlement system backed by gold or commodities.
Saudi Arabia is accepting yuan for oil. Iran is using barter for fuel. Countries are building crossber payment systems outside of SW if the dollar is losing its monopoly. Now imagine what happens when the dollar truly loses its reserve status. That's the ball game. That's when the US can't fund its deficits.
That's when rates spike. That's when the Fed is forced back into QE. Only this time, the inflation it creates can't be exported. You get a collapse in the bond market. You get a currency crisis. You get stagflation on steroids. And you get political chaos. Now, let's talk about treasuries because nobody in the mainstream media seems to understand what's coming here.
Everyone's still pretending like US debt is the safest asset in the world. The gold standard of collateral, the risk-free rate. Risk-free. Give me a break. There's nothing safe about lending money to a government that's running $2 trillion deficits in peace time in a growing economy while spending $1 trillion a year on interest alone.
There's nothing safe about rolling over $26 trillion in debt in 4 years with no foreign buyers left. There's nothing risk-free about being paid back in devalued currency. This is the same delusion we saw in 2007. Remember subprime? Remember how everyone said it was contained, that there was no risk, that the market had priced it in?
And remember how those bonds were trading above par until they weren't? Treasuries are the new subprime. That's not hyperbole. That's math. And just like in 2008, nobody sees the risk because it's not in the models because it's unthinkable. But just like 2008, it's coming. And when the market finally wakes up, bond prices are going to crash, yields are going to spike, and the Fed will be cornered.
They'll have to choose between defending the bond market and saving the currency. And guess what? They'll choose the bond market. They'll print. They'll bail. They'll flood the system with liquidity and destroy what little purchasing power the dollar has left. And what will gold be doing while all this happens?
Going vertical. The central banks already know. They've been buying gold at record pace. Not ETFs, not futures. Real physical bullion at $3,000. at $3,200 at any price because they understand that when the dollar falls, gold doesn't just rise, it reclaims its throne. Because gold isn't a commodity. It's not an investment.
It's money. The only money that doesn't depend on someone else's liability. The only money you can't print, you can't default on, and you can't sanction. You want a real safe haven? You want a real hedge? You want real wealth insurance? Buy gold, hold it, store it securely, and ignore the noise. And while you're at it, don't forget silver.
Silver is the most mispriced asset in the world right now. The gold silver ratio is still above 80 to1 and that is completely unsustainable. Historically, it should be 15 to1. Even in recent modern cycles, it's reverted to 30 to1 or 40 to11. That tells me one thing. Silver is going to outperform gold in the next leg of this crisis.
It's not just poor man's gold. It's smart man's gold because it's a monetary metal and an industrial metal. It benefits from monetary collapse and industrial demand. And in a world trying to electrify everything and decarbonize industry, silver demand is going to explode. So, while the Wall Street bros are still chasing tech stocks and the Reddit crowd is playing hot potato with meme coins, the smart money is quietly hoarding the metals that have stood the test of time.
And you should, too. Now, look, I get it. This is all heavy. Nobody wants to hear that the greatest financial empire in history is falling apart. That the dollar is dying, that the American middle class is being sacrificed to save Wall Street and Washington. But this isn't doom and gloom for the sake of it.
It's reality. And the sooner you confront it, the sooner you can protect yourself because the collapse is already in motion. The tariffs are just the trigger. The deeper disease is systemic debt, delusion, and the destruction of honest money. And if you want to survive what's coming, you need to stop listening to the people who cause the problem and start preparing like your future depends on it, because it does.
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