저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 금리 상승과 실질금리 하락 가능성을 근거로 금이 유리하다고 주장하며, 모기지금리 9%, 2026년 1분기 도달 가능성을 언급. 부동산과 비트코인 결합 상품은 위험이 합쳐질 뿐이라 비판. 미시간대 소비자심리 역대 최저 등을 근거로 경기 우려 제기. Cardone은 부동산 할인 구간에서 매입 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
I would choose gold. I would just buy gold. Only 2000. You said gold would be 2500. It would take 12 years. The stakes will be significantly higher. This is not the peak yet, and it will create a lot of problems in the real estate market and in the economy in general, especially in the US economy, which was really built on real estate, because we had a bull market in bonds for 40 years, right?
I don't think we have higher real rates. In fact, I believe inflation is rising faster than rates. So I think it's pretty positive for gold if mortgage rates hit 9%, and I think we could get there by the first quarter of next year. If the Fed buys Treasury bonds, mortgage rates will still rise. You know, they have to buy mortgage-backed securities.
They should buy corporate debt. They need to start, because anything the Fed doesn't buy will continue to become more expensive as inflation rises. 50% of all loans in this country, 50% of all loans have a rate below 4%. Some people will lose their jobs. We know what people do when their mortgage exceeds the value of their home.
They give away the keys. Now look, look. My opinion is that Bitcoin and gold have absolutely nothing in common, and adding Bitcoin to a real estate portfolio is like saying, “I’m going to add Bitcoin to my stock portfolio.” I will add it to my bond portfolio. Would you add gold to your real estate portfolio ?
No, because that...I would choose gold. I would just buy gold. Why should I lose my gold? Because you don't understand that I am creating a new financial product. Grant, you said you were going to buy more bitcoins with the cash flow from your real estate. Why not distribute this cash flow among investors, since they will have to pay taxes on it even if they don't receive it?
If you make income, your shareholders pay taxes, right? The first five or six years it will be...it will be... Because you cover it with depreciation. So, not only do they buy Bitcoin and get cash flow, they also have depreciation. How many people do you know who get depreciation along with their Bitcoin purchases?
Well, yes, but they'll still get it if they just buy real estate. Okay, let them keep them separate, but again you don't understand that I'm building a hybrid. I'm creating a new product that will revolutionize real estate, change the way you're used to working. will revolutionize real estate? This assumes, this assumes, this assumes that Bitcoin…what will it do?
This implies that Bitcoin is what? He will grow a lot. This implies that… yes, yes, but that’s not the case . This assumes that real estate will continue to move like this . Yes, the only thing is that this is what Bitcoin will do . And you assume that he won't do anything, but then again, bro, in 2000 you said that gold would be 2500 and how much would it cost?
This will take 12 years. Well, you know, gold has been on the sidelines for a long time . Bitcoin is currently in a sideways trend. You look older than me. No offense, but I don't know. I, I don't, I don't dye, I don't dye my hair. Okay. But I might, I might be older than you. I'm not sure how old you are, Grant.
Peter, every landlord needs money. A few more years, a few more years with Bitcoin, and you're going to start turning gray, because, you know, especially after these midterm elections, when the Republicans suffer a crushing defeat, it's going to be a very hostile environment on Capitol Hill for cryptocurrency and Bitcoin.
And the main reason for that big Bitcoin rally is Trump. Ahem? What? Everyone knows you have Trump syndrome. No, no, I don't have Trump supporters... these are people who blindly support Trump. They, they are the crazy ones. I am rational. I, I, you know, we got... Earlier today, I don't know if you saw, but the University of Michigan released its consumer confidence index, and the current conditions index is the lowest in the history of the survey since 1951.
So, Americans are more worried about their finances now than they were during the Korean War, the Vietnam War, you know, the multiple recessions, the Great Recession, the financial crisis, the dot-com bust, well, you know, COVID-19. I mean, despite everything that's happened in the last 70 years, people are more worried now.
So you know, it's a fiction that we have such an economic boom. You've been selling fear your whole life. I sell reality. dude. You are a dummer. Well, you, you, you're just selling greed, trying to get people to buy your Bitcoin and real estate hybrid. I, I, I inspire people to create wealth for themselves by developing a new financial product, okay?
Okay, and you hope to get 50% of the profit from their Bitcoin. I understand, but you know what? Bitcoin will fall, so you're not even going to let's talk about growth. I would like to know what you both think about what to do in the face of rising interest rates. Let's start with Grant. This directly affects real estate.
How else would you allocate your real estate portfolio for, you know, a 7% mortgage compared to much lower rates a year or two ago? Yeah, well, it's a very, very challenging time for real estate, guys. I can tell you right now that this is not what a guy like me wants. I mean, we've lost about $80 million in the value of our real estate in the last three to four weeks, just in a very short period of time because of these rates.
Um, we've been very active in buying large institutional assets, and we'll continue to do that because when rates go up, prices go down. Our admission is very cheap now, but it's very scary to buy now. It's very, it's like a cash flow squeeze, David, as you know. Um, but our cost of these assets, I buy institutional assets in great places.
We believe that in 3-5 years we will look back and our entry level will have proven its effectiveness as an investment, even despite the pressure on cash flow. Okay, Peter, uh, rising interest rates, gold doesn't like higher real rates either. So, are you doing anything differently? Well, first of all, I don't think we have higher real rates.
I actually think inflation is rising faster than rates, and I think that will continue. I think nominal rates will continue to rise, but not as much as inflation. So I actually think it's quite positive for gold. Although investors perceive this as an obstacle, it is actually a wind in the sails. But commenting on real estate, I'm not exactly sure, you know, about the composition of Grant's portfolios, but I really think the rates are going to go significantly higher from here.
This is not the peak yet, and it will create a lot of problems in the real estate market and in the economy in general, especially in the US economy, which was really built on real estate, because we were in a bull market for 40 years , right ? What happens when a real estate mogul and one of Bitcoin's fiercest critics sit down at the table to debate the future of investing?
You will hear a lot of arguments, a few personal jokes, and one question that is important for anyone investing in a new financial product. Do two investments become safer when combined, or do the risks simply become less noticeable? This is precisely the point at issue in Peter Schiff's discussion with real estate investor Grant Cardone.
Cardon promotes a strategy that combines profitable real estate with the purchase of Bitcoin. His idea is to use cash flow from real estate to build a stake in cryptocurrency, combining two very different markets into one investment structure. For supporters, it sounds like the best of both worlds. For Schiff, this sounds like selling two bets in one package.
Schiff asks a deceptively simple question. If real estate generates cash flow, why not let investors decide for themselves what to do with it? They could buy Bitcoin separately, hold gold, or save the money for something else. Including Bitcoin in a real estate fund does not automatically improve the real estate itself.
A tenant won't pay rent faster just because the landlord has crypto, and a leaky roof won't fix itself when Bitcoin goes up. The cardboard is reflected. He argues that investors can benefit from the tax features of real estate, including depreciation, while gaining access to Bitcoin. Schiff denies that depreciation comes from the real estate investment itself.
Investors do not need to add a position in cryptocurrency to reap these real estate benefits. A more complex structure must justify its added effect after taking into account fees, taxes, and risks. And this is where the conversation gets interesting. Cardon questions Schiff's long history of bullish gold forecasts, noting that some targets have been years in the making.
The exchange of opinions even turns into jokes about who looks older. But behind these jokes lies a serious problem. Being right about the long-term direction of an asset is not enough if you are wrong about timing, costs, or the ability to withstand losses. Schiff says this hybrid depends largely on confidence in the growth of Bitcoin's value.
Cardon sees cryptocurrency as an opportunity for significant profits. Neither perspective can guarantee future profits. Bitcoin has experienced sharp rises and deep falls, while real estate values can fall and financing costs can rise . When combined, investors face both types of risk, even if the marketing makes the combination sound revolutionary.
This is why the word " diversification" deserves closer attention. Owning two different assets can reduce risk when their prices behave differently. But diversification is not magic. If both assets become difficult to sell during a crisis , or if investors use too much leverage, losses can only increase.
The documents may say "hybrid," but your portfolio may just say "aye." Schiff also questions the idea that political support guarantees Bitcoin's future. He argues that the enthusiasm surrounding Donald Trump has helped fuel the cryptocurrency's growth, and predicts a more difficult political climate after the midterm elections.
This is a political and market forecast, not a certainty. Regulation, investor demand, liquidity, and global sentiment can change in ways that no one can control. Schiff then turns the conversation back to ordinary Americans. He points to the exceptionally weak figures from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey and argues that high-profile investment narratives do not tell the whole truth when households are worried about their finances.
You can celebrate the creation of a smart new fund on stage, but families still have to pay mortgages, insurance, and grocery bills. And this brings us to a question that the debate cannot avoid. What happens to real estate investments when borrowing costs continue to rise ? Cardone sees real estate at a discount and an opportunity to buy.
Schiff sees a much greater threat to housing, the economy, and perhaps even to the assumptions on which the entire strategy is based . From 1981 to 2021, bond yields fell. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell from 16% to 60 basis points . A massive bull market. The rate on a 30- year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 18% to 2 and 5/8 percent by 2021.
So, what's been happening over these 40 years is that falling mortgage rates have helped real estate prices go up, right? They work in opposite directions. And what happened was that American homeowners got this endless gift, a lifeline, whereby every few years they could refinance their mortgages, get cash, and at the same time lower their future payments.
So that was great. They could pay off their credit card debt, renovate their house, do whatever they wanted. They had a wealth effect because they continued to get richer while property prices continued to rise. We are now in the opposite situation , where real estate prices are not actually rising, and they may, in fact, fall significantly.
But mortgage rates will continue to rise. Did n't you recently say they could drop 50% or something? Well, no. I said that if mortgage rates reach 9%, and I think we may reach that in the first quarter of next year, then for a house to be worth the same with a 9% mortgage as it would be with a 3% mortgage, the price of the house would have to be cut in half so that the monthly payments would remain the same.
But something else is happening: insurance has become significantly more expensive, maintenance has increased significantly, and utilities have also increased significantly. Everything related to home ownership is becoming more expensive, but the lifeline has been cut. No more cash-out refinancing, no refinancing , no way to reduce your monthly payments.
And we are entering a new reality in America that we have never been in before. We we we we started with low interest rates and low and and low debt. It was wonderful. Then we had low interest rates, I mean, low debt and high interest rates. This was acceptable. We're almost done. I'm almost done. We had low debt and high interest rates.
Then we went into a period of high debt and low interest rates, and that was it, we could afford it. Yes, we had a lot of debt, but it was cheap, so we could service it. We have now entered an era of high debt and high interest rates. And of course, this is higher debt than ever before, and who knows how high these rates will go, but they will go well above the fives or sixes where , you know, we're at right now .
Okay, Greg, go ahead. How high, Peter? How high, Peter, before they can't grow any higher? Because there is a limit beyond which they can no longer rise. Well, well, there is no limit beyond which they cannot rise. But it happens that they reach such a height that everything collapses. But that in itself doesn't lower the stakes.
There may come a critical moment when the Fed steps in and says, "You know what? We can't let rates go any higher." And then they will start the printing presses and start buying up all the debt. But then we will get uncontrolled or hyperinflation. So it's not, you know, then it all doesn't matter anymore.
And then, of course, the only debt that stops growing is the one that the government buys. So if the government, if the Fed buys Treasury bonds, then mortgage rates will still go up. You know, they're going to have to buy mortgage-backed securities. They will have to buy corporate debt. They need to start because anything the Fed doesn't buy will continue to rise as inflation rises.
So, if inflation is 10% or 15% per year, I will not borrow money at a lower interest rate. Yes, but then again, it sounds like the end of the world. I didn't say it was the end of the world. I just said the stakes would be much higher. I know, but you always do, man. And the reality is that things are always getting better in this country.
Well, it might get better , but at first everything will only get worse. Look, I'm optimistic about AI. I think there are many reasons for optimism, but we will have to...we will have to pay for it . Everything returns to normal . Grant Cardon sees a difficult situation in the real estate market and believes that this could be a buying opportunity.
Peter Schiff looks at the same market and sees a red flag. This is what makes their discussion so interesting. Both agree that high interest rates are hurting property values , but one believes today's discounts could yield big returns, while the other believes investors may be underestimating how much worse financing conditions could become.
Cardon admits that the pressure is already being felt. In an interview, he says that approximately $80 million was wiped off the value of his real estate holdings in just a few weeks due to rising rates. However, he remains an active buyer, looking for high-quality properties in promising locations.
His logic is simple. When financing becomes more expensive, sellers may have to settle for lower prices. For investors with patient capital, this could create opportunities. But Schiff raised a question that every real estate buyer should ask . What if interest rates don't go down? Imagine you buy an apartment building with a 20% discount, expecting to refinance cheaply in 2 years.
But the stakes remain high . Your mortgage is more expensive, operating costs are rising, and rental income isn't growing as fast as you hoped. Congratulations, you have purchased a "good deal" . Unfortunately, the monthly payment did not know about this. Schiff believes the United States has benefited for decades from falling bond yields, which helped support higher real estate prices and cheaper borrowing.
Now he expects that trend to change. In his opinion, rates are rising significantly, creating problems for real estate and the economy, which is closely linked to the housing sector. He even suggests that mortgage rates could approach 9% in the upcoming phase of policy tightening. This is just Schiff's prediction , not a guaranteed outcome.
The difference between 7% and 9% may seem small until you factor in the mortgage. On a $400,000 30-year loan, the monthly payment, including interest, is about $2,661 at 7%, compared to $3,218 at 9%. That's about $557 in additional expenses each month before paying property taxes or insurance. For a family whose budget is already limited, this is by no means a small thing.
This is a major change in the cost of home ownership. And with rising insurance and maintenance costs, the pressure could grow even faster. There is another difficulty. Millions of current homeowners have mortgages locked in at significantly lower interest rates. Moving means potentially giving up cheap financing and taking out a much more expensive loan.
Economists call this the mortgage " freeze" effect. This can prevent people from selling their homes, limit the supply of available properties and create a sense that the market has stalled, even as buyers seek better deals. High interest rates don't just push prices in one direction. They are changing who can even afford to move.
Cardon acknowledges that cash flow is shrinking, but he is convinced that buying quality real estate at the right price will pay for itself in 3–5 years . Schiff does not share this confidence. He fears that higher rates could put pressure on asset valuations and make leveraged investments particularly vulnerable.
Both options are possible. Cheaper real estate is only profitable when its profitability and financing terms remain reasonable. Then the discussion shifts back to gold. Does n't gold usually lose value when interest rates rise? Schiff says the key is the real interest rate measure: nominal yield minus inflation.
If lending rates rise from 7 to 8% and inflation accelerates even faster, real purchasing power may even fall. Schiff believes that this opportunity could increase the appeal of gold , despite the popular belief that high yields are a negative factor for precious metals. But it is worth separating his theses from a universal rule.
The price of gold can fall even during times of high inflation. Shares of mining companies carry business risks, and physical gold requires storage and resale costs. Similarly , Bitcoin can rise rapidly during periods of available liquidity and fall when investors are risk averse. None of these assets are an automatic lifeline in a difficult economic situation.
So, here is the choice that investors face. Cardon is betting that patient buyers can take advantage of today's weakness in the real estate market to accumulate capital , perhaps along with Bitcoin. Schiff believes that this entire strategy could be jeopardized by higher rates and prolonged inflation.
And he prefers gold as a long-term hedge against loss of purchasing power. The smartest question is not who wins an on-camera argument. And whether your finances will hold up if the person you agree with turns out to be wrong. Because in a market built on borrowed funds, the most costly mistake can be to assume that the era of " cheap money" is about to return.
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