저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 금과 은을 보유 중이며 현재 은이 역사적으로 저평가되어 은을 선호한다고 말한다. 금은 지난 18개월간 약 100% 상승했고 은도 큰 폭 올랐다. 은은 현재 약 30달러/온스로 사상 최고 50달러 대비 조정 중이며, 조정이 끝나기를 기다리는 중이라 추가 매수 시점은 모른다고 한다. 암호화폐는 투자수단으로는 좋지만 소멸한 코인이 많고, 실질 화폐가 되면 정부가 규제할 것이라고 본다. 중앙은행의 금 매입과 달러 이탈 흐름을 언급하며 금 3,000달러 전망(BofA)과 금은비율 기반 은 목표 71달러를 소개한다.
다듬은 글
Well, I own gold and silver. I would prefer to buy silver instead of gold right now because it's historically cheaper. But Jimmy, I'm an old farmer. You know, all these politicians and academics say, "Ah, forget gold. Forget gold. It's, it's obsolete." Maybe, but we old peasants like to have some gold in the cupboard or under the bed when things go wrong.
And so, I suppose there are enough old peasants like me who will continue to buy gold and silver just in case. Well, I'm a little surprised that gold has risen almost 100% in the last 18 months. I don't consider that to be languishing. For those with money, it has risen more than 100% in the last 18 months.
Yes, and compared to Tesla, compared to Bitcoin, of course it has n't gone up that much, but I hardly consider 100% as languishing in 18 months. I'll never be as good a trader as Paul Tudor Jones or Roy Neuberger, and if they find great investment vehicles, so be it. Do it . Do it. Don't listen to me .
Uh, but you're asking me about it. I was just suggesting that if Bitcoin and the others are successful as money, they will be declared illegal. But if they only continue as investment vehicles, as long as people can make money trading something, history would indicate that they will continue trading it.
Most of the things that people have operated constantly and permanently have, in the long run, had some economic use. I mean, the Mississippi bubble, three or four hundred years ago, at least theoretically there were lands in the South Seas that you could speculate on. The tulip bubble, at least theoretically you could take the bulbs, plant them and have tulips.
Large investment vehicles eventually disappeared if that was all they were, but perhaps Bitcoin and crypto will continue forever as investment vehicles. As I said, if they become successful as money, I suspect that governments, and governments are already starting to ban them. And Jimmy, all governments are working on crypto money, digital money.
I said that in China, you can't take a taxi with cash. They don't , they don't... I tried to buy an ice cream in Beijing. The woman couldn't; she had never seen cash before. He was about 19 years old. In the end, he gave me the ice cream because he didn't know what to do with the money. I mean, now I have, I even have money on my phone, but it's government money.
It's not crypto money. Well, Jim, maybe the next time we talk, in about 6 months or so, you'll have a digital wallet with some Bitcoin in it. Well, I have a digital wallet in the sense that I have money on my phone. Solar energy, it seems, is becoming increasingly important. You know, you need money and a lot of other things.
So, silver is simply cheaper. But, if this were to reverse, if gold were to fall by 45% and silver by 10%, I would say buy gold. Buy both, but spend more money. So, silver is trading at around $30 an ounce. The all-time high is $50 an ounce. Are you a silver buyer at these levels? No, I'm waiting for this correction to pass.
You know, many are simply liquidating their gold and silver. But I wish I could time it like Roy Neuberger did. I will buy more gold and silver at some point. I just do n't know when. Perhaps the Indians are selling their gold and buying Bitcoin. Perhaps they are doing it. And if so, hurray, hurray, hurray!
Except that India has declared Bitcoin illegal . So, you know, they're brave Indians. You know, I'll never be as good a trader as Paul Tudor Jones or Roy Neuberger, but I have a perspective worth considering. If you are an expert at trading instruments and making profits, then of course, continue. But here's something to think about.
If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies succeed as money, they could face serious regulatory challenges. Governments are not keen on losing their monopoly on money. History shows that any successful alternative currency is usually banned . Bitcoin as an investment instrument is thriving because people are making money with it.
But consider this. Most of the things that have been traded for long periods had some intrinsic economic value. The Mississippi bubble, the tulip bubble, both had theoretical, albeit highly speculative, economic uses. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may remain great investment vehicles, but their future as real money is uncertain, especially with governments around the world beginning to restrict them.
In China, for example, you can no longer even use physical money for a taxi ride or to buy an ice cream. Everything is digital, but it's government-controlled digital money , not cryptocurrency. This is a significant distinction. Governments around the world are developing their own digital currencies, and these will likely dominate the financial landscape, not decentralized cryptocurrencies.
Let's change the subject to a more traditional but timeless asset: silver. Solar energy, for example, is becoming increasingly important, and silver is needed for various applications in this industry. Currently, silver is trading at around $30 an ounce , with an all-time high of $50. Although I expect a correction before buying more, it is essential to recognize the potential of silver, especially in the context of technological advancements and industrial demand.
Volatility in the cryptocurrency market also deserves attention. Thousands of cryptocurrencies have appeared and disappeared, many fading into oblivion. Bitcoin has faced numerous challenges, including theft and regulatory hurdles. If it is ever widely accepted as a currency, governments are likely to intervene.
They have the power, the weapons, and the tanks. The money will be digital, but it will be digital money controlled by the government. For those investing in cryptocurrencies, remember that while they offer exciting trading opportunities , they also carry significant risks. Governments do not want to lose control over money and are already taking steps to regulate cryptocurrencies.
India, for example, has made Bitcoin illegal. If you're in a country where the internet is cut off, like Myanmar, or during a blackout in Texas, what happens to your digital wealth? This brings us back to the usual safe havens : gold and silver. I own both , and although I currently prefer silver due to its historically lower price , gold remains a critical part of any sound investment strategy.
Critics argue that gold is obsolete, but old farmers like us like to have some gold saved up for when things go wrong. And let's not forget that gold prices have almost doubled in the last 18 months and silver has seen even more substantial gains. I have never bought or sold cryptocurrencies and, well, the truth is that many have disappeared and reached zero; As you know, there were thousands at one time and new ones are always appearing every month.
I have never bet on any of them, either long-term or short-term . Cryptocurrencies have been a huge success. Um, my opinion is that, as an investment vehicle, it's great for those who know what they're doing and are trading with them. Uh, but as I say, many have disappeared and many, many Bitcoins have vanished.
I don't know where they go, but someone steals them or something . Um, but if Bitcoin becomes successful as a currency, my opinion is that governments will ban it as such, because governments don't want to lose their monopoly or control. Again, throughout history, governments do not like others controlling the money.
And they will make it illegal. Now, the cryptocurrency guys are saying, "Ah, we're smarter than the government." Of course they are. But the government has the weapons. The government has the tanks. The money will be on the computer, Jimmy. Hey, you can't take a taxi in China with cash . You can't buy an ice cream.
The Chinese are way ahead of the rest of us, but all countries are now working on digital money, and it will be there, but it will be government money. It won't be your money or mine. And I would also remind them that some countries have already banned cryptocurrencies, such as India. Well , if you're sitting there with all your money in cryptocurrency and the internet is down, you're in trouble.
So, there are also flaws in cryptocurrencies. Not just government actions. In Myanmar, they shut down the internet. They shut down the internet. What do you do if all your money is on your phone and your computer is closed? The power went out in Texas . What do you do if you're in Texas and there's no electricity and all your money is cryptocurrency?
I mean, maybe you have an answer. I don't know. I would n't have...I don't know. If I needed to go to the store to buy some bread and the electricity had gone out, I wouldn't have any money. So, I guess that's a good argument in favor of gold and hiding it under the bed. Well, I own gold and silver.
I would prefer to buy silver rather than gold right now because it's historically cheaper. But Jimmy, I'm an old farmer. You know, all these politicians and academics say, " Forget the gold." "Forget the gold." "It's obsolete." Maybe, but we old peasants like to have some gold in the cupboard or under the bed when things go wrong.
And so , I suppose there are enough old peasants like me who will continue buying gold and silver just in case. Well, I'm a little surprised that gold has risen almost 100% in the last 18 months. I don't consider that to be languishing. Furthermore, silver has risen by more than 100% in the last 18 months.
Yes, and compared to Tesla, compared to Bitcoin, of course it has n't gone up that much, but I hardly consider 100% to be languishing in 18 months. But the answer to your question is that, of course, there are many other things that are more attractive and exciting right now for many people. And I say, what was that about last week?
GameStop, or whatever that thing was called, where they had the short sale. It's much more exciting than boring old gold. Turning to the broader implications of these trends, let us consider the strategic moves of nations. Countries like China and India are not just buying gold. They are accumulating it and repatriating it, strategically positioning themselves in a volatile global economy.
Gold provides financial independence and security immune to external pressures and sanctions. This is a significant advantage in an era where economic sanctions are commonly used as political tools. Russia, for example, has steadily increased its gold reserves over the past decade, reducing its dependence on the US dollar.
This strategy is part of a broader trend towards a multipolar world where economic power is more equitably distributed among various regions. As countries diversify their reserves and seek alternatives to the dollar, the global financial system is undergoing a profound transformation with far-reaching implications for international trade, investment, and economic stability.
Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin, highlights the shift towards raw materials. Central banks are buying more gold than they disclose, indicating a broader strategy to secure their financial futures. Understanding the full scope of these purchases and their implications for global markets is crucial.
A recent Bank of America report forecasts that gold will reach $3,000 per ounce in the next 12 to 18 months. This projection aligns with the trend of countries moving away from the dollar towards more stable tangible assets. The gold-silver ratio, averaging around 42.1 over the past century, suggests that silver could also see significant gains, potentially reaching $71 per ounce if gold reaches $ 3,000.
Let's delve deeper into the historical context of gold and silver. These metals have been considered stores of value, mediums of exchange, and hedges against economic uncertainty for centuries. During times of economic turmoil, investors turn to these metals as safe havens. Current global financial challenges, including high levels of debt, geopolitical tensions, and potential changes to the global reserve currency system, are driving renewed interest in gold and silver.
In the 1970s, we saw significant inflation and economic instability. Gold prices soared as investors sought to protect their wealth . Today, similar dynamics are at play. The global economy faces unprecedented challenges, making the case for precious metals even more compelling. Furthermore, the rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology introduces new complexities into the financial system.
While these innovations offer exciting possibilities, they also carry risks. As digital assets gain prominence, the importance of tangible, time-tested assets like gold and silver becomes even more pronounced. They provide a stable foundation in an increasingly digital and volatile financial landscape.
For investors, current trends offer both opportunities and challenges. The growing demand for gold and silver presents an opportunity to obtain substantial returns. However, the changing geopolitical landscape and economic uncertainties require careful navigation and strategic planning. Diversifying portfolios to include a mix of tangible, digital, and traditional investments can help mitigate risks and take advantage of the evolving financial system.
Staying informed about global economic trends and geopolitical developments is crucial. Investors should monitor central bank policies, international trade agreements, and technological developments that could affect their investments. By remaining proactive and adaptable, investors can position themselves for success in the new financial landscape.
Bringing it home is a wake-up call for Americans. For Americans and their allies, this change should serve as a wake-up call. The traditional reliance on US Treasury bonds and the dollar is being questioned. The strategic moves by countries to accumulate and repatriate gold indicate a loss of confidence in the current financial system.
This is a call to reassess our own financial strategies and consider the broader implications of these global trends. In conclusion, the value of gold and silver is not just about their market prices. It is about the underlying trust and stability they represent in an increasingly uncertain financial world.
As nations move away from the dollar and towards commodities, the true value of these precious metals will become more apparent. It is a time for reflection and re-evaluation for both individuals and nations. For the United States and its allies, the key lesson is trust. Trust in our financial systems, trust in our government, and trust in the global community.
The actions of nations that accumulate and repatriate gold reflect a loss of this confidence . It is essential to rebuild and restore this trust, not only through words, but through actions. Transparency, fiscal responsibility, and strategic planning are crucial in this effort. As we navigate this changing financial landscape , let us prioritize rebuilding the trust that underpins our economic stability and global standing.
Looking to the future, it is clear that the world is undergoing significant changes. The shift towards commodities such as gold and silver is a response to growing uncertainties in the global financial system. For investors, this presents both opportunities and challenges. By staying informed and adaptable, we can navigate these changes successfully and secure our financial futures.
In summary, while the excitement surrounding cryptocurrencies and other digital assets is palpable, it is crucial to remember the enduring value of tangible assets such as gold and silver. These metals have stood the test of time, offering stability and security in a constantly changing world. As we move forward, let's adopt a balanced approach to investing, one that recognizes the value of both traditional and modern assets and positions us to thrive in the new financial landscape.
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