저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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미·중 무역 불확실성은 지속되며, 미국 경제 자체보다 세계 경제 둔화가 미국 성장의 제약 요인이라는 진단. 단기적으로는 시장 전망이 긍정적이지만, 중장기적으로는 불확실성이 커지므로 투자는 유지하되 quality(우량주) 중심으로 가져가고 현금 여력을 남기라는 조언. 미국 경제: 소비와 고용이 견조해 경기침체 우려는 과장, 실업·임금 상승이 소비를 떠받친다. 금요일 발표 고용 예상치 18.7만명. 탄핵 이슈는 상원에서 큰 결과가 없을 것으로 봤고, 정치 이슈는 투자자들이 무시하는 경향이라고 설명. 글로벌 경기: 중국 PMI는 예상보다 좋았지만 전체 세계 경기 바닥 통과에는 회의적. 중국·유럽의 역풍이 크다고 봄. 유럽: 유럽 중앙은행은 이미 충분히 했고 중앙은행 정책은 역효과 단계에 접어들었다고 평가. 라가르드 신임 총재는 소통 능력은 뛰어나나 실질 성장 개선은 구조개혁과 독일·네덜란드의 재정 확대에 달려 있다고 봄. 유럽 주식으로의 이동 유혹은 있으나 현 시점에서는 미국 유지 권고. 미국 vs 해외: 미국이 해외를 압도적으로 앞서 왔으므로 지금은 미국 고수, 현금 확보 후 해외 저가주 매수 기회를 노리라는 전략. 주가·변동성: 주가 상승과 낮은 변동성·낮은 상관관계가 올해 성과를 만들었고, 중앙은행 지원이 지속되는 한 이 흐름이 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 다만 세계 성장 바닥 확인에는 낙관적이지 않음. 리스크: 정책 실수나 백악관과 의회의 대립으로 인한 정부 셧다운이 소비 강세를 꺾을 수 있는 요인.
다듬은 글
joining us right now is a Leon's chief economic adviser Mohamed el-erian Mohamed it's always a pleasure thanks so much for being here Thank You Maria a lot on the docket this morning we've been talking about at all first off you're reacting to these reinstatement of steel and aluminum tariffs look at highlights this tug of war that markets are having to navigate on the one hand trade uncertainty isn't going away and it's not going away for a good reason which is the rest of the world isn't doing as well as the US so that means tendencies to a stronger dollar that means tendencies to less competitive us and the White House says wait a minute what about trade on the other hand we had good short-term news the numbers out of China were better than expected so look for this this tug of war to continue and the big hope is that policies will deliver in the rest of the world I think it's important to stress it's about the rest of the world yeah well you had good news on the Chinese economy you write for the for the Purchasing Managers Index but you also had really good news in the US look at the shopping weekend that we just came off of record numbers in terms of online cyber and then today of course is cyber monday it is the first trading day of December the major indices ending the month of November with their the largest monthly gain since June the Nasdaq actually recorded its best November since 2009 so tell me about that would you put new money to work given all of these uncertainties and where we are in terms of the evaluations look short-term I think the outlook for the market is positive longer term you have mounting uncertainty so what I would do right now is I would stay invested but go up in quality the key thing is that the US consumer remains strong the labor market remains strong and all this talk of recession and you know I thought that was ridiculous talk yes it's not gonna happen the US consumer is in a really good place and the US consumer is the main driver of this economy do you worry about capital expenditures the fact that companies have once again started sitting on cash because of the uncertainty around trade I do now I will say Cornerstone macro and Nancy Lazaro a quote a lot things that we're bottoming out on capex what do you think so I think we on the US the major problem is not the u.s.
the major problem is the world and remember us companies serve not only the US market but the rest of the world and it's the drag from the rest of the world I think the main issue is to stress to Europe in particular they need to get their act together and they can policy-wise I don't think it's going to happen so it's it's something they can do but it's gonna take some time what do you want to see out of Europe christine lagarde now the new president of the ECB what can she do to move the needle on economic growth in the eurozone so she as head of the ECB can do very little the ECB I think has already done too much central banks are far away are starting to be counterproductive what she needs to do is stress the policy handoff and she's in a really good place you know her well she has an ability to communicate in a way that very few others have and it's up to Europe to deliver more structural reforms for growth complete the architecture of the eurozone and for Germany and the Netherlands a little bit more fiscal action so do you think that the u.s.
gets caught up in this weakness across the world I mean you know we're not living in a vacuum how coupled are we so it holds us back we would be doing more than 2% growth if it wasn't for the rest of the world but it doesn't trip us up completely so I'm looking at a 1 and a half to 2 percent growth if the rest of the world gets his act together we can do better what does Wall Street think or investors think of the whole impeachment situation are they afraid that President Trump or do they expect president Trump will be pushed out of office so I think the expectation is that when if and when it gets to the Senate nothing happens there but more importantly investors have been conditioned to put aside political issues over and over again the white trade has been to fade political issues why most important because central banks have been supportive now there's hope that the global economy is turning around I am less optimistic than most people are that we've seen the bottoming out of global growth I think that the headwinds to China and Europe are significant but as far as the markets are concerned as long as central banks are supportive we can continue this what has been an amazing journey and it's not just higher stock prices it's also very low volatility and correlations that help you've made money this year whether you've been in fixed income risk-free asset or whether you've been in whiskey everything everything's gone up living the dream I called it we've got the jobs number living the dream I like that but the jobs number coming out this Friday 187 thousand new jobs expected to have been as the economy in the last month you've got a market at record highs is there anything on the horizon that you think takes away from the consumer strength I mean what would take away from the consumer strength is a big policy mistake a disagreement on the hill with the White House that shuts down the government that'd be an example of that otherwise the labor markets are going to continue to produce two things new jobs and wage growth and as long as that happened the US consumer will continue to drive this economy okay and so you would put money to work in the US do you also want to put money to work in Europe even though the slow growth story there in terms of the economy No so people are yeah people are very tempted to fade the US and go into international markets why because the US has outperformed the rest of the world in an eye-popping fashion I don't think we've seen numbers like that I'm saying it's too early stick with the US for now go up in quality and have some cash available because there will be opportunities especially in the rest of the world to pick up cheap stocks and good prices all right we believe it same I haven't always great to talk with you thank you Mike so much Mohamed el-erian joining us there
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