Tom Lee: "This Stock is Bigger Than AI & Crypto Combined!"

요약 보기

Tom Lee는 엔비디아가 실적 부진을 보여도 AI 투자 논리는 유효하며, AI는 아직 초기(1~2회차 이닝) 단계라고 주장한다. AI 직접 수혜 공개기업이 적어 자금이 몰리는 버블 위험은 인정하나, 향후 IPO 증가로 분산될 것으로 본다. 그는 금융(JP모건·골드만삭스)이 AI 효율화와 블록체인 도입으로 2차 수혜를 받아 향후 12~24개월 상승을 주도할 것으로 보고, 경제에서 금융이 절반을 차지하지만 지수 비중은 그에 못 미치므로 재평가(멀티플 확대)가 필요하다고 주장한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. It takes us to our talk of the tape, the next leg of this record setting rally. It's clear where our headliner stands on that topic. He's bullish as you know he is. Funst strats Tom Lee joins us now post 9. Good to see you. Great to see you Scott. Um so Nvidia looms large. Does that make or break whether your bullishness comes to fruition moving forward?

02. Um I mean I know investors are really anxious and Nvidia has not performed well the last few times it's reported but the story arc there remains that that is one of the most important companies in the world in the middle of the biggest structural change in the world economy. So I I think Nvidia still is a great story.

03. It really wouldn't change our thesis if the stock reacted poorly. Tom Lee wastes no time in framing the importance of Nvidia, not just as a stock, but as a pillar in what he calls the largest structural transformation of the global economy. Even with the volatility surrounding earnings reports and anxious investors, Lee believes the narrative surrounding Nvidia remains central.

04. To him, the company is less about quarterly fluctuations and more about its role in shaping the long-term trajectory of artificial intelligence and technological advancement. This sets the stage for a broader conversation, one that stretches beyond hype cycles into the foundations of future market growth.

05. You feel like there's become a little more AI anxiety as we rode at the top. you you know from Sam Alman at OpenAI saying that you know investors are a little overeager about AI you know Meta's reorganized again they've stopped their hiring there was another report today that suggested some of these um genia models uh gen uh AI models are are failing you think there's anxiety in this market about this trade

06. well I think everyone's trying to get situational awareness like is this inning one or two or late innings because we know there's been a lot of value creation and a lot of capital that's flowed in and we know that Silicon Valley has seen a boom of companies with $100 million annual run rates like in record time around AI and a lot of people want to ring the bell at the top but to me it still feels really early because there's so such a limited number of stocks that public investors can buy that represent a direct play on AI

07. here Lee acknowledges the unease in the market headline lines warn of AI fatigue, failed models, and restructured companies. But he insists this is still the beginning. The scarcity of publicly investable companies tied directly to AI creates both risk and opportunity. Investors may worry about bubbles, but Lee argues the true growth story is just starting, fueled by both capital and demand.

08. For him, this isn't the late innings of a trend, but the first or second inning of a game that will last decades. I know, but but that could lead to bubble-like activity. Right. When your pool of investable opportunities remain so small, all of this money rushes to a select few and then they have to live up to all of that hype and give a great return on these hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested.

09. That's not a risk. Well, it is a risk. I guess that's really the next stage of what we have to see is how does the market accept now adding to the roster of direct AI plays, you know, beyond just Figment. And I think, you know, if we look at the next 12 months, there'll be a bevy of IPOs, some really big companies that are later stage, but if they're bought and they produce good growth and their stocks perform well, I would still say that still means we're early innings.

10. It's still your favorite trade. I think it's the most important trade. Lee admits the bubble risk is real, but quickly points to the solution. More entrance into the public market. With upcoming IPOs and new names joining the AI roster, the weight of investor money won't rest on a handful of companies forever.

11. This diversification, he argues, would validate the early innings of AI's economic story. For Lee, AI isn't just hype. It's the trade of this era, a driving force that overshadows most other sectors. But is it I think there's bigger upside in the owning financials right now. Uh because financials are benefiting from AI.

12. Okay. So they're the second order beneficiaries plus they're getting the green light to build on the blockchain which could really make JP Morgan and Goldman's business models so much more profitable and change their multiples, expand them. So, I think yes, I'm still bullish on AI, but I actually think the financials are really one of the legs that drive us the next 12 to 24 months.

13. Here comes the pivot. While most investors are fixated on Nvidia and pure AI plays, Lee points toward an overlooked sector, financials. Banks like JP Morgan and Goldman aren't just traditional institutions anymore. They're being transformed by AI efficiencies and blockchain adoption. Lee suggests that these secondord beneficiaries might even offer bigger upside in the near term making them an underappreciated leg of the rally over the next 2 years.

14. It does because it helps it provides the the liquidity to sort of liqufy housing and corporate lending and bring spreads down. But I think financial sector has produced visible earnings growth for a long time through these cycles and they are trading like cyclical stocks. They probably JP Morgan and Goldman should maybe have tech multiples and so I think there's upside for

15. Lee doesn't stop at pointing out potential growth. He calls for a rerating of financials entirely. If companies like JP Morgan and Goldman are harnessing the same transformative forces as big tech, then why shouldn't they be valued like tech firms? The idea challenges traditional market thinking and reframes financials as technologydriven engines of profitability.

16. Yes. And because you know at the end of the day when you look at GDP for every unit of economic activity there's one unit of financial. So financials are half the economy but they're not half the index. Now I'm not saying they're going to get to half the index but they really should rerate. I mean, I think what we're even this quarter, right, the numbers from JP Morgan Goldman and the financials and look at the bullish IPO, these are all good signs to me that you want to be overweight financial.

17. Tom Lee ends with a striking comparison. Financials make up half the economy, but nowhere near half the index. To him, that imbalance is opportunity. Strong quarterly numbers and marketleading IPOs reinforce his view that financials aren't just along for the ride. They are central to the next leg of market growth.

18. So while Nvidia and AI continue to grab headlines as the face of technological change, Tom Lee makes a bold case that financials may be the real engine behind future gains. By blending AI and blockchain into their operations, banks could transform from cyclical plays into growth powerhouses. If Lee is right, we could be on the cusp of a market realignment where traditional institutions trade at multiples usually reserved for Silicon Valley giants.

19. This shift would not only reshape the financial sector, but also redefine how investors view the balance of power between technology and banking. in the world economy. It suggests that the story of the next decade may not be one of tech versus finance, but of tech infused finance becoming the market's strongest driver.

20. These are all good signs to me that you want to be overweight financial. Do you think Tom Lee is right that financials could actually be bigger than AI and crypto combined?