원문 보기
Hello friends Value investor 29% per year on average for 13 years this was the return of one of the greatest investors in history Peter Lynch who fortunately has always been very generous in terms of advice for us small investors on how to do stock picking In fact Lynch is convinced that even retail investors if they invest following some simple principles can have very interesting returns from the stock market and in this video I will share with you the 10 best rules of Peter Lynch for us small investors in shares the number one rule to have good returns with shares is that you have to turn over many rocks which is a metaphor to say that good opportunities must be looked for carefully they do not ring the doorbell Peter Lynch is convinced that the market is inefficient Otherwise he would not have beaten it for so many years but for the majority of the time for 999% of the time it is efficient meaning the shares are well priced so to find that 1% of shares badly priced by the market you have to search very deeply says Linch it is a game where whoever turns over more rocks That is whoever searches more wins Because if we manage to Finding a good investment idea for every 10 companies analyzed is clear.
If I analyze 100, the chances are that I will find 10 good investment opportunities. Peter Lynch used to analyze hundreds and hundreds of companies every year. Clearly, the fact that he was a full-time investor and that he had collaborators helped him a lot in analyzing such a large number of companies is certainly an advantage that he and other professional investors have over us retail investors.
However, we retail investors can also form a group and share our investment theses and analyze companies together. This not only increases the number of companies analyzed but also the quality because we can have comparisons and different points of view. I created the Value Investor circle, our Community on Discord, precisely for this reason.
In just over a year, we have analyzed hundreds of companies. So, it could be useful for you to join our Community in exchange for a small support to the channel via Patreon. I'll leave you the link in the description and let's go straight to Lynch's second rule: never invest in an idea that you can't illustrate with a crayon.
That is, every time we want to buy a company, we must be able to explain why we want to buy it in maximum 30 seconds. 2 minutes and if we are really aware of what we are buying and where the opportunity lies Then we should be able to explain it in such a simple way that even a middle school child can understand it the test is if we are not able to explain in 2 minutes to a middle school child why We are buying this company Then it is not a good investment for us because it means that we do not have clear enough ideas about the company and the investment opportunity says Lynch a thesis of only 500 words is enough to explain why a company is a good opportunity if we succeed it means that we have understood the business well and not We are buying just because the price has fallen by 50% from the highs or because the multiples are very low Lynch's third rule says owning stocks is like having children do not have more than you can handle Most of us are not full-time investors like professionals So our time is limited since for 7 or 9 hours a day we are busy with work so we have to carefully measure the number of shares in our portfolio because we cannot follow many Lynch says a non-professional stock picker probably has the time to follow 5 to 12 companies I think patience is the key in this case case says Linch Imagine you inherit $100,000 or euros in our case and decide to create a portfolio how quickly will you create it if you build it in a year let's assume 10 positions it means you have found 10 great investment ideas in just one year that's a lot says Lye Chances are some of these ideas aren't that great this brings us back to the topic of turning over many rocks says Linch you will be surprised to find better ideas when you continue to turn over rocks You don't have to rush to build this portfolio you are not a fund manager so to build a good portfolio you need quantity of companies analyzed because the best 10 ideas out of 100 companies analyzed will probably be better than the 10 best ideas out of only 30 companies analyzed But it also takes a lot of patience because it's not easy to analyze hundreds of companies and not buy anything waiting for the big opportunity of the idea that makes us fall off our chair and that we are able to explain in 2 minutes to a child Lynch's fourth rule says that everyone has the right to buy.
Intellectual capacity to make money with stocks but not everyone has the stomach and this is the same thing that Warren Buffett has repeated throughout his life. That is, in investing to be successful you don't need a high IQ, you don't need to be a genius, you need temperament, you need the ability to know how to govern yourself and remain rational and not make emotional decisions if we feel pissed off or like a loser if one day one of our stocks drops by 5% and we feel euphoric and geniuses if it rises by 5% it means that we are reasoning with our stomach and not with our brain and if we panic When we see our portfolio drop then it could be dangerous for us to peak stocks because this emotionality can lead us to make bad decisions and make us lose a lot of money.
Fifth rule: the best stock to own could be the one we already have in the portfolio every time we decide to add a new position to the portfolio we must ask ourselves if it is a better stock than the ones we already have in the portfolio because the goal is to improve the quality of our portfolio not to add positions just for the sake of it because if we easily add new positions it is likely that the overall quality will be lower.
of our portfolio may decrease and consequently the potential returns. Not to mention that the more we diversify, the more we tend to have returns towards the market average and without considering that too many companies are difficult to manage as mentioned and therefore if something is changing in a company or in the market in which it operates we could notice it too late.
Then it is difficult. Not to buy new shares when you have a lot of cash available but if we have a lot of liquidity available and we cannot find anything better than what we already have in the portfolio, what do we do? We add new positions just because we have a lot of liquidity in this case patience really plays a crucial role.
Therefore, Lynch's sixth rule in business is that competition is never as healthy as total domination. In short, as Peter Till also said, competition is for losers. An important thing to understand is that we do not necessarily have to try to invest in the sector of the moment, the fast-growing sector.
Because often in these emerging and therefore not yet consolidated sectors there is a lot of competition, they are very changeable and competition is bad for our business and our returns. Lynch says he considers a high-performance company in a bad sector, that is, a dominant company in a stagnant sector in this case.
What happens when There is a downturn in the industry and some of the competitors are in trouble. It happens that the high-performing company, the dominant company, can acquire the other low-cost ones, or the low-performing ones go bankrupt and therefore the dominant company becomes even more dominant.
So the inci says: Don't look for the flashy and hot stocks of the moment. Look for excellent companies in boring sectors. Lynch's seventh rule: The biggest losses come from companies with poor balance sheets. Here I don't think there's any need for explanations. If we see a company with rapidly decreasing sales, compressing margins, losing money, increasing debt, shrinking cash flow, etc., the chances of losing money are high.
Obviously, if we buy it at a price much lower than its intrinsic value, we could also make some money if we sell at the right time. But that doesn't mean that the risk of losing money is not high. Lynch's eighth rule says: If you have the stomach to invest in stocks, but you don't have the time or the desire to do your homework, that is, to study the companies, invest in equity mutual funds.
It was in the early 90s, but when Lynch said this, I am today. I would say we invest in ETFs if we don't feel like studying or don't have the time. That is, in indices that replicate the market trend, given that most mutual funds don't beat these indices. What Lynch says seems obvious to me. No, if we don't feel like reading annual reports, analyzing company balance sheets, reading quarterly reports, etc.
It doesn't make sense to invest in stocks, that is, those who ask me. For example, in the comments: What do you think of this stock? Unfortunately, I don't have the time to study it. I should answer. So, don't do stock picking. The doctor didn't tell you to do it. This is an activity that requires time, and if we don't have the time or we don't have the passion because on the weekend we prefer aperitifs or watching football instead of analyzing companies, there's nothing wrong with that, but we should invest in ETFs in this case or in any case some other instrument that requires less work.
The ninth rule is that time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies, and this is what Warren and Charlie also say, if we have a superior-quality company. Then the ideal time horizon is forever, and in this case, patience is truly the key to everything. because Linch says a 100 bagger was first a 10 bagger and a ten bagger was first a 2x and the difficult part is having these companies in your portfolio that see their price multiply and not sell them and also Linch is telling us that we can buy a company that has already made a 5-10 for example because this does not exclude that it can reach 20x or more that is we could also buy Walmart 10 years after the listing when it was already a multibagger and see the price continue to multiply because the past of the companies does not matter but the future tenth rule scattle butut scattle butat scattle Bat That is we must investigate investigate investigate thoroughly into the companies and we have already talked in previous videos about Phil Fisher's scuttle Bat method that is to study the companies Endo information not only from the official reports of the companies So if we can we visit the stores of these companies that we analyze we use the product and we do everything possible to obtain more information on a company than we can obtain by simply looking at the official reports Because we can only understand many things in this way Like What is the Real quality We can only understand the product by testing it if the product is actually on the shelf and if it sells What is the real selling price Or what do customers who have tried the product think etc.
etc. So guys Let me know in the comments Which of these 10 rules is the most important in your opinion A like to the video if you liked it and see you next time Bye from Davide
Comments 0