저자: 미상 · 외국인
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9월 발표 예정인 JOLTS·ADP·GDP·PCE·고용보고서·CPI·FOMC 등 주요 이벤트를 짚으며, 잭슨홀 이후 금리 상승과 장단기 금리차 역전 심화를 설명. 연준이 추가 금리인상을 한 번 더 할 가능성을 언급하며, 경기 둔화와 변동성에 대비해 현금 5~15% 보유를 개인 의견으로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone welcome back we got to cover some important catalysts and I recommend you write these down because they're going to be stock market shakers over the next week we'll also talk about some of the implications of what happened in the bond market after Jackson Hole and let me just say it's not what I expected the bond market would react as so let's hit the numbers here first uh we're going to have jolt's data coming out on Tuesday mark your calendar for Tuesday morning we're looking for 9.45 million any softening here in the job openings and labor turnover survey uh is actually going to get us closer to the end of the hiking cycle remember Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole made it clear that even though we don't want to see unemployment rise we do want to see the pressure on jobs and wages continue to slow so that way wages could go up at a stable level but not overheat the economy and so we are on the track of slowing down less job reports as in less higher ring and less job openings but it's not decelerating as quickly as we expected and that reiterates the need for well in Jerome's view higher for longer so really what you want here is you want this number to come in soft you want to see that 945 come in under to be a positive Catalyst although last month's jobs data came in stronger than we expected a lot we basically almost felt like we had a blowout especially in those ADP numbers speaking of which on Wednesday we'll get our ADP numbers the ADP numbers are expected to come in at 198 198 000 jobs added last time we had a blowout at 324 000 that comes out at 5 15 a.m California time on Wednesday then we'll be looking at GDP annualized which comes out next week as well the annualized figure for GDP we're looking for is 2.4 obviously well away from recession Germany just had its last quarter GDP come in flat just yesterday morning and helping helping them maybe uh say hey look this recession is really shallow because they've already had a few quarters of negative GDP anywho focusing on America here we'll get our GDP annualized obviously we're not close to a recession at the very moment in fact yesterday I was going through some of the real fed now uh sort of current estimates for GDP and I mean we know they're sitting at 5.9 percent in terms of what GDP might actually be right now it seems a little ridiculous I went through what some of the drivers of that were and the drivers probably the biggest driver that really drove that number up the most was the day we incorporated the retail sales data we actually had a pop off in the real GDP chart and that's because it's one of the factors in it so this is so weird because you have Capital One and Target and Home Depot and Amex talking about a Slowdown in expenditures for people both discretionary and non-discretionary a firm is talking about more travel and entertainment spend so maybe people are spending more over there but a lot of companies reporting above slowdown in June and July a firm doesn't seem to see it uh where the retail sale numbers for June uh in July don't seem to imply it so we're kind of scratching our heads right now going so is the consumer out of money or is the consumer not out of money it's really bizarre but either way we'll get our GDP figures uh next week then we're going to get pce the fed's preferred inflation gauge on Thursday we're looking for 0.2 core month over month and 0.2 headline month over month Friday we'll actually get the real jobs report real I mean I'm going to put a little asterisk on that because we know they revise this crap all the time the first six months for example of this year they subtracted another 300 000 jobs so it's kind of like the numbers come in hot the FED hikes more and then all of a sudden the numbers get revised down and it's sort of like obviously some people on the you know anti-biden side are like they're rigging the numbers because nobody talks about the revisions people just talk about the headline and he wants to cheer by nomics other people on the left say no this is normal there are always revisions and when you're in uncertain times the revisions are larger and uh when you're in a decelerating economy of course those revisions are going to Trend to the downside uh wow we are going in for a big Bank angle here look at that for a moment can you get a focus on that yeah you can kind of see it it looks kind of cool big old turn uh anywho okay so uh that's um those are the catalysts coming up next week after that obviously the most important ones oh and of course on jobs yes even though we want people to have jobs you want this number to start coming in below Trend Trend right now is about 180 000 jobs anything below trend is going to help reiterate to j-pow that okay good we are we're good maybe we don't need to hike more right anything above trend of about 180 000 is going to reiterate okay maybe we need one more hike we're expecting 168 so that's Friday Friday morning we'll have that jobs report 5 30 a.m California time uh so we want this to be below Trend but ideally we don't want to be negative negative is going to be recessionary right now it's lagged uh jobs data has always lagged so it's not a great leading indicator but it is an indicator that the FED is going to use to determine okay how much stronger would we have to go here because we keep pushing on this jobs number and the more it doesn't go down the more we think we have to raise rates and stay higher for longer right the real big Catalyst obviously is going to be September 13th though that's CPI day no estimates for that yet but obviously we want to see that come in a low duh that's on the 13th then uh the FED meeting is September 20th this is going to be a big one because it's a summary of economic projections meeting we did not get a sep summary of economic projections in the last meeting uh so we're going off the June sep right now but uh The Next Step will give us another reiteration of okay we're probably gonna pause but what's your long-term outlook for rates for the end of the year and the end of next year and that's really going to forecast how many Cuts is the Fed actually pricing in for next year so that that's going to be a big day September 20th buckle up that's gonna be a big day we're gonna look at that step we'll be like oh my God the fed's not pricing in any Cuts we're screwed right that'd be a problem uh then of course we do have uh um Loretta Master coming out saying hey you know the worst mistake we could make is over tightening or sorry the worst mistake we could make is under tightening uh and that is a worse mistake than quote over tightening a little bit because we can correct that yes so uh this is why the bond market I think is reacting the way it is how did the bond market react after Jackson Hole well the bond market said okay well pricing another rate hike and that's basically what they did we went from a terminal expected a lower bound rate of 5.34 which was pricing in like a 10 chance of a rate hike uh and then all of a sudden just skyrocketed up to uh 5.48 so we added another like 10 11 bips right there which is basically pushing you up to like a 30 40 chance of another raid hike by the end of the year oops uh and getting to uh terminal so getting to that terminal rate so anyway uh that's uh that at the same time also led the yield curve to unfortunately steep him uh oh I'm sorry not steeping uh steepening is getting better right remember we have the spread between the 210 so remember when it seepens you're generally getting closer to uninverting but this actually inverted more it went deeper not steeper is the right word so deeper uh is the opposite of what has been happening over the last few weeks over the last few weeks we've actually seen a compression between the 10 and the two which was kind of like okay cool we're steepening at the same time as not having too much pain although the stock market did soften quite a bit during that and all of a sudden after Jackson Hole we just went right back down another 20 bips into inversion so we're like 80 bips inverted right now basically further away from being uninverted right and I think this is happening because if you look the two-year skyrocketed like I don't know what skyrocketed it went up and the 10-year was stable so after Jackson Hole the tenure didn't move much it was the two year that moved and that's kind of the bond market telling you okay we're pricing in yet another rate hike and we don't think they're going to be that high for the long term so that's why we see that 10 years stay stable uh which it basically aligns with everything that we're talking about here uh and this this talk from Loretta master so I think and this is my opinion I think there's a likelihood we're going to end up getting a Fed that does end up giving us just one more I think that's going to be a way of the entire board being appeased at the FED I don't think it'll come in September I think it'll come in November and then that way the FED can reiterate their confidence they don't need to do another hike in my opinion I think they've done enough but I think they will give us another in November just a short a sort of like keep the boot on the neck of the economy go and see we're serious about inflation they're not actually trying to make everything more unaffordable or expensive of course that that is technically what they're supposed to be doing what they're doing is they're playing with your inflation expectations they're like see look at that we went from July to the end of the year and over those six months we gave you one rate hike see we're still in hiking mode they don't want to send the signal yet that they're done so just skip a bunch of meetings in between throw one out over here you keep the expectations getting pressed down it's the boot on the neck that's what it is they're playing the psychological game and that's because they know they can cut two percent tomorrow if they needed to and they they will the question is how bad is something going to break when that time comes so hopefully nothing breaks obviously that's the bull POV is nothing breaks if something does break maybe it's a good idea to have a little bit of cash on the side I'm uh you know believer that having maybe five ten fifteen percent of cash on the side maybe not a bad idea but we'll probably keep going with that volatile Nike Swoosh Jack you want to open the door yeah all right we're here bye
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