저자: Kevin · 외국인
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잭슨홀에서의 파월 연설은 작년과 달리 중립적이었다는 평가. 조건부 표현(could)이 많고 '데이터 대기' 기조. 근원 PCE가 12개월 기준 하락했으나 6~7월 두 달 데이터만으로는 불충분하다고 봄. 미시간대 심리지수 하락, 1년 기대인플레이션 상승. 금리선물상 인상 확률 10~20% 수준으로 안정. 명확한 승리 신호 없이 'no news is good news'로 정리.
다듬은 글
we got the 12 months of inflation declines we got the higher only if inflation uh goes higher this was a lot of the could talk that we got from j-pal we got the restricted for six months we got expectations are anchored we got positive real rates we got uh jobs getting into balance but I had that written as imbalance uh I uh as supplies getting into balance we did not hear anything about banking no green span no volcker uh didn't warn about loosening prematurely oh we got that that's great that's actually great let me let me double check that uh because we have the transcript here uh and uh I just want to see the word premature really quickly because uh maybe did he mention that because if he didn't mention that he didn't mention that oh that's really good since e word prematurely was not used that's a big deal I actually like that a lot okay good so let's add that to the bingo card that he didn't mention uh warning against prematurely loosening uh he did not invoke Paul volcker didn't invoke Greenspan didn't invoke fate didn't tell us about unemployment potentially being uh you know uh like uh you know what what level would be unacceptable to them we didn't get that uh so there are some things we didn't really get here uh you know this I would probably give us this too early to call Peak but maybe they're very dependent on the data here so this is kind of my bingo card you know you can compare it to what you did but uh let me let me give sort of an overall view here uh I would say this is this was a very neutral Powell uh he didn't really you know he didn't he certainly didn't Pummel us like last year right last year was a complete pummeling because he's like we're not even restrictive yet we got a long freaking way to go this time he's telling us look we're we're getting there but things could break uh and that's really important this idea that things could break in fact he specifically emphasized the word could uh multiple times actually uh so uh that was sort of his way of conditioning I think Mark it's to say look we have no idea when he emphasized could a couple of times take a look at where those are and I'll show you where he says we have no idea we expect this labor market rebalancing to continue evidence that this tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could call for a monetary response we don't have that evidence that it's not easing but it could happen so that code was a really important one here was another one additional evidence of persistently above Trend growth could put further progress on inflation risk and could warrant further tightening but not necessarily look at the Double conditional here he's basically saying look just because we have above Trend growth only matters if it affects inflation actually if you go back to the bingo card on the bingo card I think we actually had exactly that let me see where that was uh there there there it's that one oh hold on it's black that one the bottom left corner demand above Trend may be acceptable as long as inflation doesn't you know on anchor right so I'm actually going to put a check in that he didn't exactly say that but that double condition in my opinion is exactly what he meant so as a Fed Watcher that that's a check mark for me I'm gonna go back to the the sheet now let's keep looking at what he said with could so that double conditional right there that's saying we might be okay with above Trend growth look if the economy is booming and inflation's down we're not here to say that can't happen uh equivalent rents uh okay well that talks about that wasn't an important could that's right and highlight it okay talked about that that's the labor market rebalancing okay here doing too little could allow inflation uh to become entrenched right this this entrenching this has to do with expectations and ultimately right could require monetary policy to be higher basically uh okay fine so a lot of conditionals here right but notice this is a very different tone this isn't a j-pal that's telling us we we will go higher he's saying look if crap comes in bad we could do more in fact uh we did just get the University of Michigan sentiment data uh we got sentiment that actually declined a little bit to 69.5 the expectation was 71.2 a one-year inflation expectations actually ticked up a bit 3.3 to 3.5 not great uh and the five to ten year ticked up a tiny bit from two nine to uh 3.0 both on expectations and what we were before the 10-year treasury hasn't basically moved at all it's basically flat uh markets are still you know they're still positive uh which is nice but a little uncertain because people are trying to digest this fed talk here and this was this was not Victory we did not expect a victory speech uh we expected this sort of conditional optimism and that's what we got now I want to show you this one line that he says because it's pretty remarkable so buckle up for this one line that he says uh quick shout out though obviously if you want to support the channel you want to invest in house hack make sure your course member sign up for the courses linked down below last time we raised money eighty percent think about this of the 27 million dollars house act raised over 80 percent of the investors were course members so consider that for a moment and that's accredited investors uh so we are expecting to have to basically just have the offering be for course members only so if you want to be in it check it out check out the courses linked down below but okay listen to this line right here that we got from Jay Powell you ready for this conclusion I loved this line okay this is hilarious as is often the case we are navigating by the stars under Cloudy Skies okay that's impossible you can't navigate by the Stars when you can't see the stars he's literally saying look I was on the schedule to give this speech I have absolutely no idea what the he double hockey sticks is gonna happen things right now seem like they're okay but there are some risks I thought this was interesting it actually started bearish he started bearish and I wrote WTF on it when he said this uh because there was this one part that was bearish remember my goal is not to just feed you one narrative I always want to give you the good and the bad I really try my best with that whether it's politics or whatever look at this right here I literally wrote what the f so he's like hey on a 12-month basis core pce inflation peaked and has gradually declined uh you know basically all the way through July uh and uh and then he says lower core inflation readings in June and July were welcome but that's only two months of good data and I'm like bro what are you smoking it's been like a year of good data so I I thought this was this was a way of him kind of like trying to inject that balance right I kind of think he had to put some bad in with some good so that it's not all good because he's trying to Signal a uh it could go either way and we have no idea that's basically what he said here but again this is a world of a difference from last year remember what we heard last year last year we literally heard him say the historical record warns against premature loosening he did not say that we have to force demand and Supply into balance didn't say that this time he actually said hey if demand essentially is continuing to go up uh we could raise rates if inflation on anchors in other words if inflation doesn't on anchor it could be okay that demand goes up that's impressive uh the labor market is clearly strong devolved it devolved into well the labor market is definitely coming into more balance but there's still some work to do and that could change but it's trending in the right direction uh last year he said we need to be restrictive for some time this year he's like we've been restricted for some time uh uh well anchored inflation expectations of course that's almost a default check mark uh no no volcker mentions this time and uh and he didn't there was one thing he mentioned last year which was rational inattention so last year the talk rational oopsies I'm trying to those are my notes hold on uh what did I do wrong here and that button okay there we go okay uh what was I say okay rational inattention is basically uh inflation is uh is if inflation is stable people don't care about inflation like businesses and people don't plan for inflation when inflation is stable so they're not really worried about it when inflation is unstable that's when people are freaked out by inflation and then they start pricing in more inflation and they're worried about more inflation so a bottom line out of all of this to me bottom line out of the whole kicking caboodle here is this was a cautious fed he does not want to create a stock market rally but he's not trying to create a stock market crash last year he's like bend over yeah so this is nowhere close to Victory it is a neutral towel uh and I want to see how the rate Market uh is pricing in expectations we were like at a 10 chance of a hike and the next one uh and let's see where we sit now so we are sitting at a 20 chance of a hike but that's been stable for basically this week last week we're at 10 if we look at the five-year forward break even it's again trending down uh it's sitting at a 5.8 or sorry 2.35 the uh five-year Break Even is sitting at 2.26 and yeah that's looking good so I'd call it stable and as far as what Wall Street is saying uh the upcoming meetings we're in a position to proceed carefully this is just basically a way saying hey like we might end up uh pausing uh We're not gonna look for our star we really have no idea where that is so we're gonna look for the incoming data uh no fireworks at Jackson Hole expected by the options market and that's what we got no fireworks we got a neutral fed fed uh didn't Splash any cold water or hot water on anyone very neutral just reading what what the suits were thinking yeah I mean roughly the same thing that we summarized here so uh I would say this is kind of a no news is good news uh approach I'm satisfied with this no news is good news is a way of saying hey we didn't get reamed by him today so this is where you kind of go oh okay Dodge the potential bullet that's it all right thank you so much for being here check out those courses on building your wealth linked down below oh wait wait is there a new Nick T piece hold on hold on there's a Nick T let's see what Nick T has to say really quick uh I imagine it's going to be relatively similar but let's see what he has uh J Powell's word of the day carefully it was a risk management speech okay well that's the same thing I said are you watching my video okay it's not the same thing I said I know I know as expected Powell rejects the idea that inflation Target would change well duh that's not that's I mean nobody that's nonsense that doesn't matter risk management speech uh fad chair notes economy hasn't cooled as expected that's demand coming down right uh and says signs of strength could warrant more action right could not will very important Nick T literally put the word could in the byline of his article because we agree that was very very important uh let's see here yeah Nick T also picked up on the two months of good data or only the beginning I thought that was weird that was the what the f that I wrote down right so we picked up on the same thing pal echoed some of the themes in a more nuanced speech on Friday explicitly rejected the idea about changing two percent that's not a big deal we don't know what the neutral rate is that's not a big deal uh Powell's speech Illustrated how he's trying to thread the needle between slowing hiring investment and spending to bring inflation down without providing so much restraint that it would needlessly severely uh damage the economy yep call whoever said that in in the video or in the chat here so I appreciate you okay awesome again uh cautious cautious optimism that's what I call it alright folks appreciate you being here thank you so much this is the first time I've done a Fed meeting on Tick Tock uh Twitter video Twitter spaces twitch and YouTube all right folks we'll see you goodbye
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