저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 2023~2024년은 지수 투자보다 운영자(옥석 가리기) 능력이 중요해지는 양극화 장이 될 것이며, 주택 가격은 하락 가능성이 크다는 취지. 하워드 막스: 2023~2024년 수익률이 낮아지고 리스크 조정 수익률이 0%에서 약 5%로 바뀌면서 좋은 운영자만 이기는 양극화가 올 것이라는 견해에 동의. 주식뿐 아니라 부동산 등 모든 자산에 해당. TD뱅크 주택 전망: 2023년 5.7%, 2024년 추가 2% 등 최대 10% 주택 가격 하락 예측. 진행자는 52년 데이터상 연간 최대 하락폭이 8.9%였으므로 이 수치가 통계적으로 가능하다고 봄. 다만 금리 하락 시 예측이 되돌려질 것으로 봄. 억만장자 불만: 스타우드의 배리가 대출 상환 문제로 파산 신청하고 사모 리츠 분배를 중단했다고 언급. 일론 머스크는 금리 인하를 요구하면서 마진을 희생해 판매량을 늘리겠다고 했고, 자사주 매입은 하지 않겠다고 발언. 머스크의 테슬라 주식 매도 이력(수십억 달러 규모)을 근거로 그의 '매도 안 한다' 발언은 신뢰하기 어렵다고 주장. 신규주택 판매: 11월 신규주택 판매가 예상치 -5.1%였으나 +5.8%로 서프라이즈. 다만 계약 기준 통계라 취소 건이 반영되지 않으며, 최근 취소율이 기록적이라 의심스럽다고 봄. 금리와 거래: 주간 금리 하락이 6주 연속 이어져 2008년 이후 가장 긴 하락세. 금리 하락으로 계약 취소가 줄고 거래가 바닥을 칠 것으로 기대. 테슬라: 성장률이 주가 기대치(40%)를 맞출지, 마진 희생이 얼마나 될지, 중국 상황과 7,500달러 세액공제 영향 등을 주목. 전반적 리스크: 금리 인하 기대가 깨지거나 운영자 간 격차가 커질 경우 손실 확대 가능성 강조.
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what does billionaire investor Howard marks have to say about returns in 2023 new home sales what happened did they crash did they surprise to the upside what is musk saying about profit margins at Tesla what should you do when billionaires complain and finally what is TD Bank forecasting for Real Estate folks this is what we have to get into for Saturday December 24th folks Howard marks billionaire investor uh wants you to understand that investing in 2023 is going to be very different investing in the last five six eight ten years has very much been index investing where you just put your Capital work and returns happen Howard marks wants you to understand that 2023 and 2024 will likely be very different because we are going to have to once again focus on the operator if you are on my channel you know we have talked about the fact that in real estate in crypto in all these other markets it's about the operator the last couple of years it's been just put it in the index and let the index take care of you well when the risk adjusted return changes and it goes from zero to call it five percent Only the Good operators win dare I say only the great operators win and we are going to see a bifurcation in the market I agree with Howard marks and I think it will not only be in the stock market it will be in real estate it will frankly be in any asset uh that you invest in the good operators the people that do the work will win and the folks that are lazy Gamble will lose and there are going to be lots of lots of losers don't be a loser do the work pick your lane Focus figure it out let's go to TD Bank all right this is a real estate Channel we talk about real estate a bunch TD Bank is forecasting that we are going to see housing prices decline 10 percent 10 from here by 2024 they're forecasting 5.7 percent next year 2023 followed by another two percent uh in 2024.
this is statistically absolutely positive if you've come back to my channel you've known the 52-year spreadsheet the largest year-on-year decline was 8.9 percent you can go ahead and get the report for free in my free course but the idea here is these numbers are possible so there are folks calling for 20 crash in a single year it hasn't happened before maybe in a market but certainly not in the country so again TD Bank is forecasting significant price drops from here I will say that I haven't changed my opinion I believe a lot of these forecast calls are going to start to reverse as rates decline as transactions bottom uh and we go from here let's talk about billionaires whining and one of the things I love about this channel is we have receipts we can go back and look at things we've talked about uh in the daily financial news and I warned you when billionaire Berry I think it's um I forget his last name but anyways he runs Starwood and Elon Musk they were complaining at the same time they were saying hey the FED has to cut rates cut rates cut rates I even participated suggested guests that Elon Musk was telling us he had a demand problem I was guessing that Barry had was having debt coming due and he was having a problem well we're about to find out first and foremost billionaire Berry had to declare bankruptcy in his mortgaging he's had to stop distributions in his private Reit now Elon Musk has been warning about the FED cutting rates he had a Twitter I don't know all all hands call or whatever you call that spaces thing talking about we're going to sacrifice margins to sell units we are not doing a cash buyback because we need or a stock buyback because we need to have Reserves folks remember this in the future when billionaires complain they're selling it's obvious now it was obvious to me when we brought it up several months ago but hopefully by now you realize I know what I'm talking about sometimes new home sales new home sales we talked about existing home sales uh coming down to 4.08 million on Friday we got the numbers uh for new home sales which we're talking about here Saturday the December 24th yes yes they surprised to the upside yes folks new home sales were surprised to the upside 5.8 percent expectations were negative 5.1 percent that is a huge swing expectations were down 5.1 actually came in at 5.8 to the plus side I want to remind you like I do every month new home sales are contract signed they do not incorporate cancellations yes this is a statistic on contract signed not actual closings and as we have seen months after month we are having record cancellations we all be interesting because I believe cancellations will start to drop because interest rates are falling it is one thing to sign a home contract when rates are four percent and when you get to closing they're six and a half you're going to cancel that deal but what if you sign a deal at 7.2 percent in rates are six you're probably closing that deal and what we've seen the last six weeks folks is interest rates have decline six weeks in a row it is actually the longest stretch of weekly declines since 2008 which I find pretty interesting so again folks just to remind your new home sales surprise to the upside 5.8 percent expectations were for negative five one but as always I'm a little suspect of that number so musk Elon Musk selling Tesla shares again he has come out repeatedly and said I'm not selling I'm not selling he said that on April 29th after selling 8.5 billion he said that on November 8th after selling four he said it after August 10th sorry jumping around a little bit there's so many dates when he sold 6.9 I don't know why anybody believes him but again he's saying he won't sell he's also telling us a stock buyback uh is not happening at least in the meantime and that um he's gonna say he's gonna sell units margins be damned it would be very interesting to see their growth rate do they hit the 40 that the stock expects uh do they sacrifice margin if so how much they now are given 7 500 credit it'll be interesting to see what's happening in China so again lots of stuff going on folks do me a favor like subscribe comment become part of one rental at a time this is the daily financial news for December 24th have a great day bye
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