저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Ray Dalio가 CNBC에서 시장 버블 경고를 재차 언급했다는 소식과 함께, 연준 의사록에서 다수 위원이 올해 추가 인하 불필요를 말했다는 내용을 전한다. 9~10일 FOMC를 고용지표 발표 이후로 미뤄야 한다고 주장하며, 9월 고용은 +119k(민간 87k), 실업률 4.4%로 소개한다. 엔비디아 분기 매출 570억 달러와 AI 수요 강세를 언급하고, 기존주택판매는 408만 채(전월 대비 +1.2%)로 8월이 거래 바닥일 수 있다는 기존 주장을 강화한다. 채널 구독과 교육 프로모션도 포함된다.
다듬은 글
Well folks, Ray Dallio is at it again. Uh he is again talking on CNBC talking about the market is in a bubble. According to Ray Dallio, we are 80% of our way to a bubble popping. He warns of frothy tech valuations, private credit stress, and frankly investor complacency as major signs of a nasty bubble forming.
Also to note, if you happen to be a Bitcoin fan, you should know that Ray Dallio has 1% of his massive portfolio in Bitcoin. Uh says that he has had that for quite a while. Yesterday afternoon, folks, we got the Fed minutes and boy were they full of information. Uh, as expected, as I've said for quite a while now, I do believe that the Fed is divided in a camp that want to cut in a camp that frankly wants to refuse to cut.
What did the Fed minutes show? Well, several things. First, many, and I want to underline the word many, officials said no more cuts needed this year. So again, I do think well over seven, eight, maybe even nine Fed presidents based on their comments are in the no cut camp. In addition to that, according to Steve Leeman, CNBC host, says that these Fed minutes were nothing but confusing.
The Fed is really disjointed right now. Thankfully, you and I have been talking about that for quite a while. It's not a surprise to us. Not sure I have seen this many disparit views. Again, folks, thanks to this channel, we are once again ahead of the mass media. And finally, leadership change is coming.
So, what does all of this mean? Uh, well, actually, you know what? Let's talk about jobs first because I think we have to tie that together first. So, this morning we got we started to get our dose of government data. Uh, first, let's talk about initial weekly claims. Uh, they were expected to come in at 227.
They came in at 220. So, again, below expectation. nothing appearing to blow up just yet. On top of that, we have now learned that we got the September, and I want to stress September jobs data, not October, September. This is the report that was held back when the government shut down. And more importantly, and shockingly, we have learned that the December data that was supposed to come out on December 9th is going to be delayed to December 16th.
Folks, that's not good. Why? The Fed meets on November 9th and 10th. It is my strong suggestion that the Fed postpone their meeting. Why does the Fed want to meet a week before what would arguably be the most important jobs number in years? Again, we got September numbers and they were better than expected.
Uh jobs created in the month of September were positive. 119,000 with 87,000 coming from private sector. That is good. That is good news. What is bad? Well, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. Why is that bad? Well, if you believe the dot plot, 4.4% was the highest expected reading by the Fed and we are already there and it is getting worse.
So again, if I had a magic wand, I would take the Fed meeting from the 9th and 10th and move it to the 16th and 17th. There is no reason for the Fed to be flying blind on the most important jobs data because that's all that matters. Is the job market cratering, falling off a cliff, or not? If the job market is deteriorating, then they cut.
If the job market is still cranking, then they don't. Why would you do a meeting on the 9th and 10th when you are missing the most critical piece of data? All right, I said my piece. I think they're crazy to meet on the 9th and 10th. It should be delayed. Well, we did get the most important tech earning yesterday.
And if you are an AI long, Nvidia long, congratulations. Nvidia beat topline, beat bottom line. They did $ 57 billion in one quarter. That's more than half a billion dollars a day. That is a lot of chips. Again, I will remind you that selling picks and shovels is a great business that we learned way back when in the dot era with Cisco.
Frankly, we learned it with the gold miners. Who got rich during the gold rush? People who sold picks and shovels. According to Jensen Wong, sales are off the charts. and GPUs are sold out. AI is going everywhere doing everything all at once. That is quite a quote. Uh I do uh want to let you know that I had a coaching session with Graham Stefen last night.
Met at his uh new office, his new facility. And one thing that Graham Stefen said I need to do here on the daily financial news is ask for a favor. Folks, again, I've been reading this morning for about 75 minutes to put together this list of information. I and I only ask one thing of you. Do me a favor, hit that little subscribe button.
Uh, as Graham tells me, that really helps the channel get broader reach. So, again, if you appreciate me reading 60 to 90 minutes every morning, if you could take two seconds and hit that subscribe button, I would greatly appreciate it. Uh, we did get some additional earnings yesterday besides Nvidia.
We got Palo Alto Networks. Again, Palo Alto Networks is one of those companies I look at to see what's going on with software. Again, the last thing they cut on software budgets is security. Well, Palo Alto Networks beat topline beat bottom line, but a little fly in the ointment. They're quarteron quarter revenue and quarteron-quarter EPS or earnings down 2%.
So, not sequential quarterly growth, which is uh not typically seen as a good thing. Also got Jack in the Box um revenue down 6.6% year-on-year. Missed earnings bad, not good. Uh we also got Shoe Carnival, which is rebranding Shoe Station. Uh mar with margin expansion beat topline and bottom line. What's this going on at Shoe Carnival?
They're basically changing the entire store. Shoe Carnival target customer was sub 30K, right? There's a family that made less than 30K and now they're rebanding Shoe Station aiming for customers who make more than 50K. So, they're going up market as they like to say. Uh, we did just get existing home sales and folks, my call of an August bottom is looking really, really good.
Again, we I'm just pulling it up on my phone because the data just came out. Uh again uh last month we did 4.08 million. It was expected to come in at 4.1 and we did month-on-month sales were up 1.2%. Again that is coming out that that is even with the government shutdown. If we were going to see any stress or strain in the housing market from the government shutdown, it would have been in existing home sales because we were hearing from mortgages FHA and the like that things were being delayed.
they were being slowed down. So the fact that these numbers came in as expected and again up month shows that you know what August of 2025 might just prove to be the bottom of transactions. So uh again that call is looking better and better. Um Walmart also reported earnings said beat topline bottom line raised guidance.
C CFO said Walmart is winning over value seeking customers. Uh let's talk about our school community again. We had our 500 member celebration last night with Jason and Tai. Thanks guys for coming out helping. Uh we went an extra half hour. Thanks Jason for doing that. U the video is already posted. So if you missed it yesterday, I made sure to download it and share it inside school.
Uh so again, if you want to get rich in 2026, you want to understand how to grow and start a real estate business, all of it is in there for you. Uh we all uh took I think we took like 20 or 25 questions. Uh so get in there, check it out. Is there for you in school and we did have three people join, Adam, Marty, and David.
Uh thank you for being members of school. Make sure you introduce yourself. Check out the nine accountability groups, the active forums, the free education, and again hopefully starting on Saturday, I will start loading get your money right course as another free goodie for you. Uh Red Fin had a report saying this is a home buyers market.
To which I say, no duh. You and I on this channel have been talking about a buyer market for better part of six months. It's the first buyer market I've seen in 12 years now. Red Fin agrees. Red Fin says that much of the country is in a buyer market. What else we want to talk about? Why don't we talk about Jeff Gunlock?
Jeff Gunlock, uh CEO of Double Line Capital, says that stocks are overpriced, bonds are overpriced, and private credit is a powder keg. Pretty much the only thing Jeff Gunlock likes today is gold. Uh he is his primary refuge is gold. Uh, what else do we got? Resi Club. Uh, again, shout out Lance Lambert at Resi Club.
October housing down prices. This is prices down.3% month- on month, up.1% year onyear. And I guess the last thing we'll talk about is Rocket Mortgage has rolled out DSCR loans. Hello. DSCR loans for real estate investors. All you need is a DSCR of one, minimum credit score of 680, and loan amounts cap out at $3 million.
So folks, again, hopefully you like this. This is the daily financial news. We will do it again on Sunday at 7:30 a.m. Pacific. Again, what I do is I read for 60 to 90 minutes. And all you have to do is hit that subscribe button as a little thank you for me. I appreciate you guys. Have a wonderful day.
Don't forget that Steadily Insurance is the sponsor of the daily financial news. And if you are a landlord, it is your job to make sure you've got the best coverage at the best rate. Give them a shot. Link in the description. I hope you have an amazing day, an amazing weekend. Take care of yourself. Later.
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