저자: BrandonTurner유사부동산투자유튜버 · 외국인
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부동산 투자 및 개인 재무 관련 라이브 방송으로, 금리·주택시장·비트코인 등에 대한 의견을 다룸. 빌 애크먼은 인플레이션이 빠르게 하락하면서 실질금리가 상승해 연준이 1분기 내 금리 인하에 나서야 한다고 주장. 이는 경기 침체가 아닌 인플레이션 하락에 따른 인하라는 해석. 그레이엄 스테판은 중산층에서 상류층으로 올라가는 4단계로 신용점수 관리, 잉여자금 저축, 한 가지 전문 분야에 집중, 10년 단위 장기 사고를 제시. 코디 생쳇은 근로소득 외 9가지 수입원 구축을 소개. 주택시장: 다라일 페어웨더(레드핀 수석이코노미스트)는 금리가 7% 아래로 내려가면 강한 한 해가 될 수 있다고 언급. 화자는 2월·3월 이후 신규 매물 감소와 밀린 수요로 입찰 경쟁이 재현될 수 있다고 우려하며, 시장이 평탄하게 조정되기를 원한다고 밝힘. 매도자 37%가 지금이 매도 적기가 아니라고 응답, 재고 4.2개월분은 수요 변화에 따라 3개월 이하로 떨어질 수 있다고 봄. 기타: 알래스카항공의 하와이안항공 19억 달러 인수, 비트코인은 2023년 최고 자산 후보로 언급, 스포티파이 직원 17.7% 감원 소식. 화자는 세미나 가상 참가 상품 및 부트캠프 일정을 홍보. 출연자 및 금리·자산 관련 구체적 가격 예측은 제한적이며, 금리 인하 시점과 주택 재고 변화에 대한 전망이 주된 내용임.
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folks we need to talk about Bill Amman Graham Stefan Cody Sanchez Daryl Fairweather Bitcoin Spotify that and much more but first let's acknowledge this live session is going off 1 hour early folks yes we are recording this at 6:30 in the morning because I have some exciting interviews scheduled for later and I wanted to make sure we got this done that's just how we roll here so first let's jump into what Bill Amman has to say folks you don't remember who Bill Amman is obviously one of his most recent calls was shorting uh the 10year treasury and then he covered that short position at 5% looks to be a tremendous trade on his behalf now he is saying the FED must the FED must cut rates in q1 the real rate of interest is rising as inflation Falls folks we've talked about this a couple of times and remember what is he really saying he's basically saying we need to watch the real rate what is the real rate take the FED funds rate which today let's call it five and a quarter and you subtract inflation let's call it 3% the real rate is then in that case 2.25% what Bill Amman is saying is inflation is falling much faster than uh the FED is letting on and that the 2.25 will continue to expand AKA be more restrictive and thus the FED will cut rates If the Fed is at 5 a half this is his words and inflation goes sub three we will see the restrictive nature of rates so again bill lman is pretty adamant that the FED is on the cusp of starting some rate cuts and again this isn't cutting rates because the economy is soft this is cutting rates because inflation is falling that is a very nuanced opinion I think a lot of folks myself included kind of lean towards the FED will cut rates when a recession comes but I want to acknowledge that it is absolutely possible that the FED looks at falling inflation and goes hey we want to maintain 225 basis points to make that restrictive nature that is possible now does that happen in q1 seems kind of early to me but let's not get it twisted bill akman has made some tremendous trades some tremendous calls and he for one talking about the FED cutting rates in q1 how about Graham stefen Graham Stefan put out a great video video the other day talking about moving from the middle class upwards right go from middle class to upper class Graham Stefan broke those four into four key steps so I thought I would share them with you and give you my opinion on them step one Graham Stefan talks about your credit score this is kind of like what Dion talks about all the time when I talk about getting wealthy being three steps Dion is always like Michael you're missing one and according to Graham I am missing one so two smart guys I'm probably missing one but basically you have to lay the foundation for personal finance and the best way to do that is the credit score do you know your credit score do you know what impacts your credit score can you improve your credit score because again the higher your credit score the better interest rate you will receive on debt and again at as you're moving forward the better your rate maybe the more cash flow the lower expenses all kinds of good things could happen and more importantly for me as I think about what Dion tells me and Graham is telling all of us it's something you can work on today how many of us want to get moving and and and start you know moving and shaking and getting deals done but don't have any capital I think as Dion has talked about and now Graham is kind of you know pokeing me I think they're right we need some activity or some action that we can execute as we get on this slow grind to what is in uh step two step two for Graham Stefan is you need to save some dollars this to me is what I call step one the discretionary income you have to set up your lifestyle your monthly expenses where there is money left over you can call these discretionary dollars you can call them working capital you can call them whatever you want you need to be able to have money at the end of the month you need to be able to find ways to grow that because that becomes the seed capital for everything else so again step two is save dollars step three again my step two I'm starting to really think as I run through this with you real time I need to change my three steps to four I think Graham is Right Dion Dion was right Graham has really made it obvious that I'm I failed I I really should add a Step Zero you need to invest now I talk about finding your thing uh rest in peace Charlie Munger he was the first one that brought this up to me decades ago it's not about diversification when you get started it's about getting hyperfocused on your thing what are you uniquely good at what are you uniquely excited about what are you you uniquely willing to invest endless amount of time and hours in so that you have a disproportionate return on it I call it or Matt The Lumberjack calls it being Elite what are you willing to become Elite at for me I had a buy box it was a zip code it was a product type it was three or four bedrooms I knew that product mix better than anybody else on the planet for several years running what is your thing that is number three and then number four from Graham Stefan think longterm I get more specific I say think in a decade getting wealthy is remarkably easy but you have to think in a decade this is not ramen noodles this is not microwave this is not get rich easy this is none of this stuff but it's get rich for sure if you execute these processes I like your chances so that's what we got from Graham Stefan shout out Cody Sanchez I really like Cody Sanchez I think she's doing great work I think she is authentic um I think she has a way of communicating uh that is superb uh and what I just watched from Cody Sanchez is she was talking about the four levers and the nine income streams she had uh before she left her W2 why is this important to me I'm starting to believe that my avatar car is full-time employees right we just had a great conversation with Jason um uh Jason Pritchard yesterday I think the video went out yesterday it might go out today talking about being an entrepreneur like him where you burn the boats or you're a full-time employee like myself you can absolutely burn the boats quit your job and go after it and good things could happen but that's not for everyone in fact I would argue that's not for most people most people people I believe need to look at their day job as a tool I know lots of you hate your day job but what if you flip the mindset and you said you know what I'm using the I'm using this day job to get wealthy you might look at it a little different so again to give you this kind of the synopsis of what Cody was talking about in her video the four levers that we all get to play with one is time right if you don't have a lot of money but you have time find a way to use time to get some education knowledge all of that number two expertise what are you uniquely good at number three brand build a brand or an audience number four is obviously money but here's the deal this is where this is why I watched the video with Cody was the income streams I believe if I had to do all of these things over again I would do two things remarkably different one of them I have already admitted I would have house hacked a fourplex in s in Sunnyville or Santa Clara California in in in about 1992 1993 I would have owned a fourplex owner occupant house act that that I've admitted to you that I would have done the second thing I would have done as we're on our journey right you've read my book one rental at a time thank you for the Selfies the book reviews all of that about year five I would have started building the brand one rental at a time time I would have done stuff right at year five we had about 80 units I would have done stuff I had private money i' I'd surviv the crash we were we were starting to do uh you know uh raise millions of dollars I would have taken what was wealth building pro.com what was my writings on Bigger Pockets and I would have made a brand I was doing the work but I wasn't thinking brand the reason I'm bringing this up because again Cody Sanchez is talking about hey what can you do while you're working to set yourself up because again remember I quit on a moment's noce I have a couple of great days and then I get depressed because I have nothing but what if I had been building one rental at a time for 10 years and then quit on a moment's notice I wish I would have done that as well so again what did what are the nine income streams uh Cody Sanchez had she had started a service based business basically she take what she took what she was doing in South America and turned it into a Consulting gig for others number two she obviously had her 9 to-5 job number three she was Consulting people were paying her by the hour number four she was sitting on a board she was known in the industry she sat on a board number five speaking events she was being paid to speak on certain topics number six she created an info product number seven newsletter affiliate number SE eight sponsorship on products and number nine she has airbnbs laundry mats things of that nature again these are Cody's N I share them with you not because you should copy Cody's n but I challenge you to think of all the different income streams you could create while working around your set of expertise and again if I had to do it again I would have started building one rental at a time the brand right around 2009 2010 that would have given me wow eight years to build the brand while working huge opportunity I missed Daryl Fairweather do you know Daryl Fairweather is she is the chief Economist of red fin let me make sure I get what she said here what did she say oh here it is Chief Economist over at redin she is looking at the data and says if rates fall below 7% I think we are going to have a pretty strong year again this is the problem this is what I've been highlighting is the risk I've been highlighting this for months this started with Lance Lambert at resi Club when we talked about home builders home builders started backing off and I'm like dude this is going to be a future problem in and about February or March we are going to have less new homes available we're going to have rates come in and then oh by the way there's going to be all of this pent up demand I am very concerned that starting February March April we get back to bidding wars I to be clear I don't want it I don't want that I some people think that I'm some housing bull I'm not I just want it to be flat let let this thing be flat for a while let's let's ring out all the excess and let's set up a more healthy Market but it is possible the other thing that Daryl highlighted that I was new information to me 37% of homeowners believe it is a bad time to sell interesting interesting now could that be high rates because they are sellers are usually buyers perhaps could that be that there's no qualified buyers perhaps but the fact is sellers think it is a bad time to sell right now there is 4.2 months of Supply which is is the highest uh in the I don't know for several years but we got to remember how the 4.2 month supply is calculated it is a supply and demand variable what what are we seeing right now demand 8% stop demand hence months of Supply goes up hence days on Market go up but what will months of Supply be in February if we have a 6 and 3/4 not a lot of Supply is coming and demand goes up folks that 4.2 months will crater to sub three months but we shall see let's talk about Spotify Bitcoin and Alaska Airlines we'll go in reverse Alaska Airlines first folks Alaska Airlines appears to be buying Hawaiian Airlines how's that for a combination go up there to freeze go out there to warm up Alaska Airline for 1.9 billion dollars that's quite the purchase let's talk about Bitcoin Bitcoin is kind of interesting last night I wrote down Bitcoin crossed 4,000 I had to cross that out because now Bitcoin is crossed 41,000 it it is very likely I think that Bitcoin goes down as the number one asset for 2023 I think it's up like 120% or something so hey for all of you people out there still holding on to that Bitcoin and ethereum congrat congratulations to you uh and then Spotify don't know if you saw this but just this morning Spotify says it is time to right size the organization they are laying off 177% of their employees so again folks as people get into the end of the year and realize they have too many employees you are once again seeing some significant head cut uh count a head count reductions uh 177% again folks remember we do now have the $99 virtual option uh I did sign up to spend about $112,000 to get two people two people two cameras I don't know something else uh so that we can host the virtual event everything in Vegas cost a gargantuan amount of money but I think it will be worth it because I know a lot of people couldn't get there so again uh we are hosting the virtual event it will be it's onevent brigh Eventbrite will send you a zoom link uh so you can watch the um watch the fun I know you won't be able to network I know it won't be the same uh hence the cost is only $99 my intention just so I'm clear my intention is to record the session I have been doing this a while and sometimes best intentions don't work out my intention is to record the 20h hour event my then I we will then take that 20 hours my team will chop it up and load it on teachable and then my intention is to give it to anybody who signs up for the $99 virtual event that will probably take a minimum of two weeks but could take three weeks what you don't know about teachable is it has a file size and uh there will be lots of videos to um to load or create for the 20 hours so again it is my intention and the reason I say my intention because I can already Envision oh this flash drive or this hard drive or whatever crashed and then I'm so I can't do anything about it but my intention Good Karma be a good person is to record it hand it to my team to chop up load on teachable and then give away so again if you buy the $99 virtual event my intention is to give you the uh recorded version uh once it is done and then finally for the folks in the boot camp we got three more days we are going to do day eight day eight of our 10 week boot camp this Saturday 8: to 10: a.m.
we're going to talk about out of area and out of state investing we are also going to just answer generic questions about the spreadsheet and anything else you want to bring to bear the one and only Millennial Mike will be joining us for out of state and out of area discussions I hope to see you there I will be sending out the invite in the next 10 to 15 minutes folks take care see you at the boot camp Saturday Saturday Saturday 8: to 10: a.m.
and again please book the virtual event if you want to go uh we've had I think four people sign up thus far and hopefully we get at least 130 or so that will make it about a break even uh thing so at the end of the day folks take care have fun bye
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