저자: Michael · 외국인
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부동산 시장 약세와 구매자 우위 국면을 강조하며, 1~2분기 내 경기침체 가능성을 언급한 영상. 빌 애크먼의 2020년 금리 관련 베팅과 SNS 발언 패턴을 설명하고, 금리 상승 베팅 후 금리가 하락했다고 주장함. 증권 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. 부동산 거래 취소율이 마이애미·올랜도·탬파 20% 이상, 애틀랜타 24.4%로 높다고 설명하며 구매자가 협상력을 갖는다고 주장함. 11월 중순 이후 동기가 강한 매도자와 매물을 거둬들이는 매도자로 갈릴 것으로 전망함. 미국 가계 평균 순자산(2022년 106만 달러)과 중위값(약 19만 달러)의 차이를 설명하며, 평균은 상위 10%에 의해 왜곡된다고 함. 이번 주 실적으로 코카콜라·GM·스포티파이 등의 어닝 결과를 언급하고, 주택건설사 총마진율이 29.5%로 높아 금리 바이다운 여력이 있다고 분석함. 경기침체 가능성에 대해 레이먼드 제임스의 9개월 내 침체 확률 상향을 인용하며, 본인은 1분기를 침체 시작 시점으로 봄. 영상 후반부에는 부동산 투자 교육 상품 홍보와 스프레드시트 강의 예고가 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Bill Amman did it again folks yes Bill Amman ran the same Playbook that he ran in 2020 to Perfection and CNBC and the news media let him do it again let's talk about that in a minute let's talk about cancellations spiking in the real estate game this is something we brought to you first and now it's being reported uh onl of folks and then finally let's talk about Ken Griffin the dude's building a 50,000 square foot home you will not believe the valuation here in a minute folks let's get into it folks what the heck did Bill acman do what the heck is the bill Amman Playbook I want to remind you I think it was March of 2020 Bill Amman puts on a uh a bet he buys puts on the stock market basically thinking the stock market's going down he then goes on CNBC and whines and cries and says Hilton's going to zero and all of these other things are going to happen bingo bango in a few short weeks he made over a billion dollar that is the bill akman Playbook put on a position go on social media go on the networks and talk about it so what did Bill akman just do what did Bill akman just profit from and the news media is letting him do this so rewind the clock about six months uh Bill Amman says rates are going higher and of course if you believe rates are going higher you think the price of bonds are going lower so that is the trade that he puts on so then he goes on social media after he puts on his uh his play and says rates are going to six rates are going here rates are going here rates are going higher rates are going higher he talks it up more and more Wall Street folks put on that bet and guess what happens rates go up and now he is Cash in his chips he cast in his chips earlier or I guess late last week and rates are already following following falling uh thereafter so again the bill acman trade put on a negative bet go on social media go on the networks talk negative print billions of dollars I can't believe CNBC lets him do this but whatever it is what it is all righty folks let's talk about cancellations remember we brought you this first two or three weeks ago after a conversation with Omar I said that oh no cancellations are going to be spiking what did red fin say yesterday red fin said cancellations have spiked to 16.7% 16.7% uh basically uh there are some markets that are even over 20% Miami Orlando Tampa think about that that's one in five transactions that is pending is going to get cancelled and then finally if you want to know what Market has the most or high highest percentage of cancellations it's Atlanta Georgia 24.4% let's just round to 25 that is one in four transactions cancelling folks the Market's broken I I I can't tell it any other way another thing that red fin said and I agree with and I've been trying to communicate this to the world buyers not sellers buyers hold all of the Power if you are in a fortunate enough position to be shopping you should be getting the best deal possible you as a buyer are the rare bird sellers don't have any power you want a credit ask for it you want repairs ask for it you want a rate buy down ask for it you want a lower price ask for it it's going to be a very very cold winter transactions are going lower some people will still sell some people have to sell these are the times where you only do great deals only no good good is out the window until February we will revisit in February please make sure you're doing the work make sure you know your numbers and if you can make a deal cash flow and produce a great yield in this market but we're not doing average we're not doing good deals only great deals okay and again red fin is Right buyers hold all of the cards what about Good Old Ken Griffin I had no idea um he's a CEO of Citadel if you don't know who that is uh He is building a 50,000 square foot mansion I don't what's bigger than a mansion like a mansion on Mansion he's he has secured 25 acres of oceanfront property and Palm Beach on a area often referred to is billionaire row 25 acres 50,000 Square ft it is estimated it is estimated that once completed it will be the first single family home in the United States worth a billion dollars that is unfathomable to me a billion dollars for a single family home wow crazy Raymond James has increased the call for recession odds in the next 9 months Rising borrower costs Tapped Out consumer student loans strikes Wars I'm kind of right there with them you know that I've called q1 the start of the recession I just see so many things going on in the economy I think the economy is slowing down a lot faster than the rear view mirror that the FED uses uh but we shall see uh catching you up on what Altos research is doing Altos research is a wonderful follow on YouTube a wonderful follow on X or Twitter uh Mike and team we got to get Mike back on the show He is wonderful active inventory grew 1% I want people to realize what's happening right now buyers have left the building so you're seeing inventory rise it is unusual in the seasonal pattern of housing to have inventory rise right now but realize it's not like the doomers are saying it's not because we are seeing waves of new Supply what we are seeing is existing listings age in place we can say that because uh we are seeing new listings down year on year and week on week but active inventory is up so that just means that days on market right my my favorite metric it has only been my favorite metric for the last several months I've been doing this 20 some odd years I never really really looked at days on Market but in a market where I am trying to find motivated sellers on listed properties right I don't door knock I don't send mailers I don't do any of these hard things I just look online dayson Market is the key for me stale inventory is growing it'll be very interesting right around the middle of November so what's that 3 weeks away the middle of November I think we're going to see one of two things one we may we may see lots of sellers take their listings off the market they're basically like like hey thanksgiving's here Christmas Is Here New Year is here we will try again in the spring I am certain that will happen some but how much I don't know the other thing that may happen is the motivated sellers are going to start raising their hand they're going to basically say hey I need to sell I need to sell bring me any offer this is where you can get creative this is where you can write disrespectful or aggressive or whatever word you'd want to use it is the time to use terms owner carry sub2 whatever your flavor is I think by the the middle of November motivated sellers will raise their hands non-motivated will take will lower their hand and take their house off the market let's talk about mean or average and median I know these terms haven't been thought about in a long time but let's just show you an example of how mean and median can produce vastly different numbers you ready here we go this is according to the Federal Reserve the mean or average American household net worth just crossed a million dollar in 2022 the mean or average net worth of the American household is $1.06 million that is mindboggling just so you know in 2019 the mean or average net worth of the American household was $868,000 so what is mean you basically take up you add up all of the households and you divide by the number of households that's the average or the mean but let's talk about the median what is the median you us household that is where you line up from the lowest to the highest and you take the middle it is going to produce a different number but did you know it produces a significantly different number the median is 92,93 million and the median be19 92 let's call it 193,000 well the easy answer is the mean or average is highly in um uh influenced by the top 10% the top 10% of us households have a net worth over 6 million bucks 6.6 so it is skewing the average higher that is what's going on so I thought that was pretty interesting and again we talk about median here a lot because we talk about median home price so again median is the middle line them up find the middle all right let's talk about some earnings we are starting to get some earnings we obviously got big Tech earnings after hours uh but before hours we got Coca-Cola beat Topline beat bottom line and raised guidance GM General Motors beat Topline beat bottom line but retracted their Q4 forecast uh these strikes are going to have a significant negative impact and they don't know makes total sense that GM would subtract or retract their Q4 forecast uh but again they beat Topline beat bottom line that's because the strike happened right at the end of Q3 I think the last week week and a half uh but yes they beat a a interesting article uh from Lance Lambert P homes gross margins last quarter 29.5% the gross margin that's at the high of the range why is that important well it just means that the uh Builders have a lot of room to incent buyers think mortgage rate buy Downs again if you're if the going rate is 8% but the Builder will give you 5.49 that is a significant benefit and they will use that margin uh to move homes and then lastly Spotify beat Top Line beat bottom line but not only beat had a surprise profit yes they made money they were expected to lose money but they made money uh thanks to cost cutting so a couple of things yesterday yesterday evening I think at 6 o'clock I shared with you a video of how to become a great real estate investor it is blocking and tackling tried and true buy box how to set it up it's about a half hour my intention in that half hour was to take somebody who is interested in understand the basics of one rental at a time how do we all do it how do we understand and do great deals do me a favor if you don't know what we're talking about with buy box or whatnot watch that 30 minutes I go through it in painful detail about why it's important and why it's the secret weapon to becoming a great real estate investor and then at 9:00 today I just recorded a video you are going to want to watch I was interviewed Yesterday by Jason Hartman and I was sharing my 53-year spreadsheet and Jason Hartman was very complimentary but he says you know what Michael you can make this better I said okay I respect you tell me how he said Michael you've got to add leverage you have to add leverage right your home price appreciation is cute and all but you not thinking like an investor so we we were playing with the spreadsheet we put in factors and um it is eye openening to look at the spreadsheet now in the context of Leverage and also inflation we should add the uh leverage but we should also subtract inflation so again at 9:00 you will see me bring up the spreadsheet you will see me highlight what Jason was talking about and trust me you're going to want to see that because the numbers are Bonkers absolutely Bonkers all righty folks let's congratulate someone Ben Ben congratulations on getting your golden ticket folks golden tickets are for your first deals oh there's a Black Card Black cards are for anybody to get their next deals you can get unlimited numbers of these but you can only ever get one of these so Ben your golden ticket will be in the mail today folks if you want to get started with one rental at a time there is a course how to get started run win till at a time for $3.99 you want to test it out go buy a $47 buy box buy a 6-hour mastermind it's all out there for you folks have an amazing day take care bye-bye
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