저자: Taylor · 외국인
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결론: 금리 상단 재상승 우려 속 Jamie Dimon의 고금리 경고와 Bill Ackman의 연준 종료 전망이 대립하며, 진행자는 Dimon 쪽에 가깝게 소비 둔화 우려를 제시한다. Dimon 주장: 연방기금금리 7%~7.5% 상단 가능성(약 40%)을 언급, 10년물 금리 6% 수준, 모기지 금리 9~9.5%까지 가능하다는 시나리오를 제시했다. 진행자 해석: 10년물이 약 4.65~4.75%에서 100~150bp 상승하는 시나리오를 가정하고, 모기지 스프레드 300bp를 감안하면 모기지가 9%대 중반까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 주택시장: 주택 거래량은 이미 금리에 민감하며 추가 하락 여지는 제한적(약 340~350만 건 수준)이라고 보지만, 금리가 10%까지 오르면 큰 충격이 될 수 있다고 언급. 상업용 부동산: 현재 진행 중인 상업용 부동산 부실이 더 악화될 수 있다고 봄. 신용카드 금리 22%→25~26% 상승 가능성과 미결제 잔액 1조 달러도 언급. Ackman 주장: 소비 둔화, 학자금 대출 상환 재개, 고유가 등을 근거로 연준 금리 인상은 끝났으며 이후 동결될 것으로 봄. 시장은 내년 3회 인하를 반영 중이나 진행자는 이를 지나치게 공격적이라고 봄. 인플레이션 구성: 주거비(OER)는 둔화 조짐이나 에너지 가격 상승은 저소득층에 큰 부담이라고 언급. 소비 데이터: 설문상 응답자 54%가 심각한 경기침체를 예상, 현금 보유 비중은 역사적으로 높은 수준. 학자금 상환 재개로 약 600억 달러(9월 상환 등) 및 10월 이후 월 80~90억 달러 규모 현금흐름 영향 가능성. 밀레니얼 리스크: Danielle DiMartino Booth의 '성경적 위기' 주장에 대해 진행자는 고소득 층의 고정금리 주택담보대출과 재량지출 축소 가능성을 들어 과도하다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 Dimon 쪽에 동조하며 금리 장기 고착 및 소비 둔화 리스크를 강조, Ackman의 연준 종료 및 인하 기대에는 회의적.
다듬은 글
alrighty folks we seemingly have a battle Brewing between uh Wall Street heavyweights Jamie Diamond and Bill Amman and I think we need to dig in because they are right now on opposite sides of the trade and I think we need to talk about it what are you thinking Taylor I think you're 100 per correct and I think Jamie Diamond the numbers he's putting out there could scare some folks um yeah so I think most most folks are like hey I hope Bill amman's right I hope far from right oh man it's funny uh I you know I actually didn't know a lot about Bill Amman until I think it was like February or March of 2020 when he went on CNBC and did this rant about Hilton going to zero and you know all of these things and then of course it comes out that he was short those stocks and made billions of dollars which just bad form um it absolutely is but hey that you know congratulations your trade work out I guess if you can live with yourself so be it um but it's interesting to watch him kind of I don't know mature or experience because uh he was just on Seeking Alpha I watched the replay I'm not Seeking Alpha on um delivering Alpha delivering Alpha thank you I knew there was a different world delivering Alpha thank you and uh I actually had a a you know I had I I listened right verse kind of React to what I historically saw him do and of course I read everything that Jamie Diamond says so it's it was pretty wild to see these guys they're just on opposite side of the trade one of them will be right and one of them will be spectacularly wrong I think so why don't we talk about Jamie Diamond because he's probably the best known what what's he saying now yeah Jamie Diamond is calling for the potential he's not saying rates are goingon to go there but he said listen we have the real potential for fed funds to go to seven seven seven per.
so so for context what do you think that means the tenure is so right now we're at five and a quarter five and a half and the tenure sits at 475 somewhere in that ballpark four 465 somewhere in that ballpark so and and this is not a direct relationship whatsoever but that puts the 10year up another 100 basis points 100 and a half yeah yeah somewhere in the low sixes so let's just call it six let's be conservative yep all right as we said in an earlier video the there there's a 300 basis point spread between the 10year and mortgages so we now have a 9% mortgage that's what Jamie diam is saying right probably 9 and a half yeah because if we have that movement upwards it's because inflation is pressing things higher and the banks aren't going to slim down that margin when inflation's ripping higher they're like hey we don't know where this is going to go we need that margin for error and it might even be blown out further so that puts it at nine and a half to your point which is just ludicrous yeah so again I want you this is what and I think he said this on an interview in India because I think I watched it over the weekend um and again he's not talking a little chance he said it's a 40% chance not four not 14 he said 40 right right 40% chance we can see 7% funds rate 6% 10 year that's our numbers not his and a nine to n and a half mortgage rates if that doesn't make you pucker up I don't know what would because that would that would be bad that would be bad yeah so all of a sudden you start talking about a 30-year average 30-year mortgage that has moved between three and four times a three and four time multiple in two to three years yikes yeah so you know actually the the this is what I think is pretty wild because I I think housing and again it's transactions I think transactions are going sub four million they're probably going to go to 37 38 somewhere around around there let's just say we went to 10% mortgage rates there's actually not that much more room in transactions to fall because of Life events right and cash buyers and all these other things right so you might get down to 3.4 3.5 million even in 1981 with 18% mortgage rates we did like two and a half million transactions so we're not going to zero what I'm getting at is housing is interest rate sensitive it's the most interest rate sensitive it's already feeling the pain if we have 10% mortgage rates what does that do for companies what is that doing for people who have to roll debt over what does that do for commercial real estate it would explode all these other things and it would be it could be an epic disaster Frank well that's what I wrote down here like we haven't seen a disaster in the housing market from a price standpoint right transactions we've seen a disaster to to the point that you've made a ton of times but the commercial real estate battle that's playing out right now that one gets uglier right and so yeah it's interesting to think about that and what could happen there but you also think about credit card debt which is at what 22% right now all of a sudden that gets pushed up to 25 26% um as we sit at a trillion dollars of outstanding credit card debt um I I I think that Jam's wrong um Jamie has a tendency and you say that with great respect I I do yes absolutely no no I do I do Jimmy Diamond the best Jimmy Diamond's the best Banker of of our era uh bar nun without question Bar None he does he does have the tendency to make Blasphemous comments hyper hyperbolic comments where he said what was it he said a hurricane was coming to the economy next year yeah no just hurricane just offshore right right so again he he he says Hyperbole and and and some of that you don't know what his underlying intent is but uh nonetheless he he he does make those comments yeah he does he does well let's switch over to Bill Amman who would have thought Bill Amman is the adult in the room going you know what the consumer slowing down the economy numbers the fed's driving with the rearview mirror there's a lot more weakness student loans you know oil strikes uh yeah the economy is slowing down I think the fed's done that was essentially what B Amman said thinks the fed's done they're going to pause from here yeah yeah I think that's the more modest moderate approach I think that's essentially what the Market's pricing in right now the Market's certainly pricing in the fact that the fed's not going higher from here they're pricing in three interest rate Cuts next year which I think is still and I believe you think that that's still to overly aggressive to think we're gonna get three Cuts next year um the the data just doesn't align that way and now when you do look at the underlying pieces of inflation which sometimes I get annoyed when other people do this but but I'm going to do it anyway like you do see you do see shelter rolling over and this is something that you've been banging on um for a while owner's equivalent rent is starting to roll over um but you still have on the other side and and granted people say hey oil's not that important because it's so volatile it's important it's important from a psychological standpoint and it's really important to the people that are less fortunate that make minimum wage and have to drive to work everyone making minimum wage drives to work every single day so it disproportionately affects the bottom end and that's cycling back up we might get some correction in that because the Saudis may take a step back and say all right you know what instead of cutting like we have we're actually making really good margins on this right now let's start incrementally increasing the oil we're putting in the market yeah it's it's um I just think there's a lot of headwinds I I can't believe this I would normally default to being with Jamie Diamond I do think that he's the best Banker in my generation but I do think he's wrong right I I I see the consumer getting weak I don't know if you saw this uh aliance just put out a report that I read yesterday talking about more than 50% of Americans think there's a a a what do they call it a significant recession coming and interesting 54% of them have more cash on hand than they've had historically and why is that important because the consumer drives our economy and if the consumer is cutting back even a little bit that's going to be felt throughout the economy uh then you add on top of that student debt I don't know if you saw these numbers but it looked like $6 billion doar in student loan payments were done in September right people trying to get ahead of the rate hike we now have it starting October 1st estimates are somewhere between eight and N billion doll that money's coming from somewhere you know then we have higher oil I don't know if you know this I mean you know this but the audience oil higher oil actually helps jome pal because it takes consumption from other things and um it's just there's just so many headwinds right now yeah when when you talk about kind of the reinstatement of student loans the numbers that I recently saw was the average student loan monthly payment is $53 a month now granted they have to estimate that but that's their best estimate and there's 45 million Americans that are sitting in that student debt category 45 million Americans paying $53 a month uh um it's funny to say I've seen a lot of studies that show that that's not going to have a huge economic impact but it's tough to make the argument that that much money throughout that many people isn't gonna make a dent right that's one% of the that's that's one and a half percent of the economy or I'm sorry of the population yeah it's it's it has to have an effect it's it's even if you go in and you make Rosy assumptions like 45 million folks let's assume half of them were were continued making their payment they didn't but let's just assume they did so not net new change then you're down to 27 a half million folks let's and oh by the way some of those 27 and a half are going to get forbearance or whatever the hell they're calling this going forward because they you know they're going to be in Biden's new whizbang thing so I don't know that's five million folks now we're down to 22 it has to have an effect and it's funny I don't I don't know if you saw it this morning but Danielle D Martino Booth is out talking about Millennials who make between a 100 Grand and 250 Grand so they're not going to be in the Biden you know forgiveness Camp she thinks that there's going to be a Biblical her word not mine biblical crisis with Millennials declaring household bankruptcies because of student loan repayments and I don't see it I can't I can't W my head around that because again what what she's basically saying is hey these six figure earners they went out and bought a home in the last two years and now they're going to have this student loan repayment and they're going to go bankrupt and I'm looking at this going dude Danielle they have fixed their housing costs for 30 years right right their their payments not changing for 30 years and oh by the way it's lower than rent how can that be a problem and oh by the way most importantly these Millennials making between 100 and 250 garan they were they were yoloing were doing a lot of discretionary spending they were Revenge traveling they were buy they'll just stop doing those things I I can't see a Biblical crisis of Millennials going bankrupt will it happen of course it always happens but biblical I I just don't see it that's such a stretch word there's no doubt about it people will make bad decisions but when the roof over their head disappears with their bad decisions they start to correct them pretty darn quickly and we've seen that happen throughout history that again to your point this is a fixed cost that they know is coming every single month and uh as long as they're at all looking at their numbers you can budget for this and I get people aren't great budgeters Etc but if you know there's an $1,100 payment hitting your account every single month and if you don't pay it the roof over your head's going away yeah I don't see it no and again it's not like we're talking about folks making 50 Grand where there's no margin of error right these are six figure earners right perhap multi you don't think they can find $53 by stop doing something discretionary are you kidding me you think they're that bad yep I don't see it I don't see yep to to totally agree 100 perc yeah yeah where can people find you yeah find us at lifo Investments we're on Instagram and Tik Tok at lifo Investments appreciate you Michael you got it
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