저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
10월 10일 대규모 청산 이후 크립토 시장이 약화되었고, 마켓메이커 유동성 훼손으로 비트코인·이더리움이 주식시장의 선행지표 역할을 하고 있다고 주장. 특정 거래소의 스테이블코인 가격 괴리로 ADL(자동청산)이 연쇄 발생해 약 200만 계정이 청산되었으며, 이를 코드 오류로 규정. 2022년 사례처럼 정리에 약 8주가 걸린다고 언급하며, 과도한 레버리지는 위험하다고 경고.
다듬은 글
All right, joining us now is Fund Strat's head of research, CNBC contributor Tom Lee, also the chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an ether treasury company. All right, so Tom, you you've heard what Steve had to say. This is, by the way, not unusual for Nvidia, is it? Nvidia, the good folks at Bespoke, your team, you've recognized that Nvidia will often have these kind of wild swings following earnings, but what is your take right now on these markets?
Uh, well, I think I'm I'm going to kind of add to what Steve said. You know, I think the crypto market has been limping along since October 10th because on that date was a negative shock. I mean, today's stock market looks a lot like an echo of what happened October 10th. But on October 10th, that liquidation was so big, Brian, it really crippled market makers.
And now market makers are critical in crypto because they provide liquidity. I mean, they act almost as the central bank in crypto. And if they've got a hole in their balance sheet that they need to raise capital for, they need to reflexively reduce their balance sheet, reduce trading, um, and if prices fall, they've got to then do more selling.
So, I think that this drip that's been taking place for the last few weeks in crypto reflects this market maker crippling. And so in 2022, it took 8 weeks uh for that to really get flushed out. We're only 6 weeks into it. So I I I kind of concur. I think crypto, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are in some ways a leading indicator for equities because of that unwind and now this sort of limping and and weakened liquidity.
Well, that and that was the that was the point that my my very very smart team behind me, we put together for the top of the show, which was showing that that Bitcoin turned down today before the market did. All right, take us back. So, October 6th, I think it was October 6th or 7th, Bitcoin hit 125,000.
Yeah. A couple days later, it was still around 120,000. Now, obviously, Bitcoin's at 86 and change. So, what specifically occurred on or around October 10th that would lead us to where we are now on what November 20th? Yeah. Well, Steve actually pointed this out. There's a lot of what they call automated processes in crypto.
One of them is called ADL. Okay. And that's an automatic liquidation feature that would take place if someone's account or their collateral drops in price. It's essentially like a margin column. Um, on a specific exchange, a stable coin's price varied from other exchanges. It actually stable coin should stay at a dollar.
It dropped to 65, but that only happened within the exchange quotes within this exchange because of liquidity. That triggered an ADL, an automatic liquidation across many accounts. It wiped out as that spread across other exchanges, right? Because liquidations cascade, almost two million crypto accounts got wiped out.
even though minutes before they were actually profitable accounts. So, who who is behind this? Like, who's the they in the market makers and they got hit? Who's the they? Well, you know, Brian, I'm I I am aware of names, but because uh you know, I'm not someone who wants to name names. Uh I think what you should keep in mind is that the this error is actually essentially a bug you know a code error because they I think in retrospect they would have pulled pricing from across exchanges to set the price for that stable coin rather than rely on internal quotes.
Um so but this has resulted in a lot of market makers and traders having less capital and as you know as crypto prices drift lower because trading volumes drop they need to then have more capital available which means they shrink their balance sheet further. So this is then that reflexive okay weakening.
Um I hate let me go I want to go back to this point Tom. I hate the term glitch. I can't stand the term glitch because you know things go down at the airport and they say, "Well, a glitch cause your flight to not take off." That's that's not a glitch. That's more than a glitch. It's a word that is used to describe pretty serious automation issues, software problems, crashes for some reason that they try to minimize.
Is this some kind of a a software bug that's causing part of this? I'm trying to follow exactly what you're hinting around about. Uh yeah, I mean Brian it is. I mean uh for instance in 1987 portfolio insurance was the quote glitch and that triggered the cascade in 1987 and so the industry learned uh and then never offered that again.
You know in 2009 it was really that the collateral wasn't secure in real estate in these packaged subprime mortgages. Now the industry learned and they recoded that. I'm talking about Wall Street. But then regulators came in and like overregulated. That's that was the negative effect of that. In crypto, this code of ADL and the way they pull prices never going to happen again.
The good news is we're not going to have overregulation in crypto. But but now we have to deal with that liquidation effect. 2022 was a big liquidation and it took 8 weeks. Um but it it that is kind of you're right it is the nature of DeFi where there is going to be code and there's going to be an error found and you said it leverage is what's dangerous and so investors should not be using excess leverage in crypto.
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