저자: 진행자 · 외국인
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CPI 발표 결과 예측과 시장 시나리오를 정리하고, 제레미 시겔·브라이언 하트만·BOA 등의 시각을 소개한 영상. 결론: 헤드라인 CPI는 완화되나 근원 CPI는 끈적할 것이라는 전망이며, 금리 인상 기조 속 경기침체 우려가 깔려 있음. 12월 13일 CPI 예상치는 전년비 7.3%이며, 진행자는 7.2%를 예상. 6.9% 이하면 시장 랠리, 7.0~7.3%면 완만한 긍정, 7.4~7.5% 이상이면 인플레이션 끈적임 우려로 해석. 근원(core) CPI는 임금·서비스·주거(렌트) 후행성 때문에 상방 서프라이즈 가능성을 언급. 제레미 시겔: 수요일 50bp 인상, 2월 연준 동결, 인플레이션 종료·디플레이션 진입, 채권금리 하락(모기지금리도 하락), 내년 기준금리 3% 미만(약 200bp 인하) 전망. 진행자는 이에 상당 부분 동의하지 않으며, 시겔의 시나리오가 맞다면 심한 경기침체라고 평가. 부동산(제이슨 하트만): 부동산 3대 통념(비싸다, 단일 시장이 있다, 돈 벌기 어렵다)을 반박하며 '바이 박스' 집중 투자를 권고. 진행자는 홍보성 수강 및 커뮤니티 안내를 함께 함. BOA: 인플레이션이 향후 5~10년 문제가 될 것이라는 시각 소개(탈세계화, 강대국 경제 갈등 요인). 이번 주 일정: 화요일 CPI, 수요일 50bp 인상 및 파월 발언과 점도표(최종금리 4.6%→5% 상회 여부, 실업률, 성장률, 인하 전망 등 확인 포인트), 목요일 소매판매. 개별 종목·자산에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없음.
다듬은 글
7 30. I think this is the first time in a couple of years I did not make the 7 30. I had a very very very early interview schedule this morning and I just couldn't get to it but it is important to do it today is Monday December 12th and these are the five things you need to know about the daily financial news number one we need to talk about CPI CPI Consumer Price Index it is coming out tomorrow morning at 5 30.
I think there's a couple of things we need to understand first and foremost expectations expectations are for 7.3 7.3 are the expectations so now let's talk about what happens if if for example it comes in at something ridiculously low like 6.9 or below it's going to be bananas the market is going to look at a 6.9 and say inflation is over the FED is winning they don't have to go as high you will see the market you will see interest rates it will be party party time the Santa Claus rally will certainly be in force please note I am not calling that I'm just saying if it happens now instead of 6.9 let's say it comes in at 7.0 to the expected number of 7.3 that is going to be okay fed expectations they'll be looking at hey what's falling is it just energy is it you know used cars what is going on generally speaking if it comes in between 7 and 7.3 again I think the market will say hey the FED is winning they don't have to go as high things of that nature now what if what if it comes in above expectations what if it comes in at 7.4 or 7.5 please note that these are still down from last month so the trend right I think it was seven seven last month the trend will still be downwardly sloping but it will look like hey it is not going down as fast inflation is proving to be sticky the FED has more to do then what if it comes in at seven six or above that will be bad if CPI tomorrow comes in at 7.6 you will likely hear people talk do we need a 75 does the FED need to hit us again so again CPI expectations tomorrow this again is headline headline is 7.3 oh man I'm nervous about this guess what do I want to call I'm going to take 7.2 I am going to be hopeful I do think it's mainly energy specific I still believe the important number is core and I do believe core surprises to the upside so like last month my belief is headline goes down but core stays sticky and may go up mainly because of wages I.E services and housing slash rent being such a lagging indicator so again if you want to take a guess leave it below uh maybe what we will do for the first person to get it right we will send out one of these shirts that you nailed it have some fun leave your leave your guests below what do you think CPI will be tomorrow again uh what is the the first person to guess getting it right we will send them a t-shirt next Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel is out there he is saying hey the FED is wrong the fed's going to cause a recession uh I read an interview where Jeremy takes a shot at 2023 here are four things that Jeremy Siegel sees for next year one Jeremy Siegel sees a 50 basis point move on Wednesday and then folks Jeremy Siegel is calling a pause in February yes Jeremy's calling a pause in February I don't see that I see it a quarter right I believe we're going to see 75.50 quarter and I believe every single rate increase if we get them next year will be a quarter but yes folks number one Jeremy Siegel is calling for a Fed pause in February I think it's February 1st number two inflation is over that's his words not mine Jeremy Siegel sees inflation is over we're having disinflation now in deflation later it is going to fall and fall fast I again agree with or I'm sorry I disagree with Jeremy I see inflation being easy hard and really really hard according to Jeremy it's all easy and it will crash and crash quickly number three Bond rates are going down Bond rates are going down according to Jeremy Siegel and oh by the way if Bond rates go down what happens to mortgage rates you guessed it they go down as well and then number four I'm not really sure which of these I disagree with most this might Jeremy Siegel is out saying the FED will get fed funds rates below three percent by next year think about that that would be a cut of probably 200 basis points so those are the four things that Jeremy sees 50 and then a pause inflation is over Bond rates crashing and fed funds be cut 200 basis points next year wow and oh by the way let's be clear if Jeremy is right if Jeremy is right we're in a nasty nasty recession Jason Hartman somebody that I've had on the channel I've interviewed a couple of times I think he is a giver he did a um I don't know if it was him or his team uh I got an email talking about the three myths of real estate which I thought was interesting number one real estate is expensive and as Jason always likes to say compared to what right what are we doing again when we talk real estate we're talking yield cash on cash return on Capital what is what is the opportunity cost what else is there don't look at the sticker price look at the opportunity cost what else could you do number two there is talk of a housing market folks there's not one housing market I would argue there's not a thousand housing markets I look at the nation because I'm an economist I've been doing it for 30 years you you right there yes you right there I'm talking to you you need to have a buy box that is well defined and that is all you look at if you are investing in Fresno California you should not care that Brian Lebo tells you that Las Vegas real estate fell 55 000 from the peak in June it doesn't matter it's interesting it's fun you know but your buy box is all that matters if you are a real estate investor you should become the expert on your buy box please buy boxes permission to focus and permission to ignore Jason Hartman is right there is not one real estate market number three making money in real estate is hard it is not hard it takes work it takes effort it takes consistent effort but it is out there folks I want to read to you after this one a post from our private Facebook group yes I have a course yes I have a private Facebook group uh this was a post that was done by say eel I hope I'm saying that right I'm not saying that right say saylee just sharing I followed zuber's advice and started giving low ball offers on older listings really embarrassing offers after many many many rejections I started doubting this strategy are my offers too low at one point I thought my agent was going to break up with me then at the orat live event I got an opportunity to ask a question of Beth regarding agent's point of view Beth and zuber's answers encouraged me to keep giving insulting offers finally it happened today I closed on a great deal here are the numbers days on Market 98.
twice reduced list price starting at 170. recent comparables at 210. offered 140 negotiated after inspections of 135. do the work so again sail here is your card you are number eight of one thousand just because we doing this Michael here's your card you are number seven of one thousand folks as you saw my goals yesterday these cards are the most important thing for me next year I want to encourage you to get started do the work learn average find great deals get your cards and don't forget we have these one time only golden tickets these are going out to the first deal the first deal you get we are sending out a hundred of these and 1 000 of these get yours today do the work if you need help buy the course rock and roll but I'm not talking about the course so again sail congratulations Bank of America Bank of America is starting to highlight that folks inflation is going to be a problem for the decade I think it'll be a problem for five years I think everything is happening quicker I think it's a five-year Journey it certainly could be 10 as we see D globalization we bring more stuff on Shore near shore we have these economic conflicts from superpowers I think it is a year a decade of understanding that inflation is not going to get to two percent easily and then lastly tomorrow or I'm sorry Wednesday we have the 50 basis point in uh increase we have Jerome Powell's conference or you know speech but don't forget the Dot Plot what is the Dot Plot basically all the FED presidents make predictions on what they think we're going to figure out the terminal rate does the average terminal rate go above five percent today I think it's 4.6 does it go above five unemployment what are they saying about unemployment how bad will it get is it above 5.5 GDP are any of them forecasting negative growth next year four is anybody calling for cuts I believe one or two fed presidents last time two two meetings ago were calling for cuts in Q4 does anybody see that and then finally what are their predictions for 2023 does anybody see a super-sized increase um do they just see quarter points like I'm calling so again it's going to be a wild week it starts bright and early tomorrow at 5 30 a.m with CPI then we get the FED meeting I think it's 11 30 Pacific then we get retail sales on Thursday crazy crazy week in the middle of December have an amazing day sorry this was late I apologize but I wanted to make sure I could get that interview scheduled even though I had to get up extra early take care everyone bye bye
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