저자: MichaelZuber · 외국인
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결론: 연준은 금리 인상을 계속할 것이며 금리 정점 이후 2023년 내내 고금리가 유지될 것으로 보는 매파적 시각이 우세하다. 연준 발언 분석: 메스터 총재는 인플레이션이 아직 이르다며 추가 금리 인상을 강조했고, 데일리 총재도 75bp 인하 가능성을 배제하기 이르다고 언급했다. 진행자는 12월 50bp 인상 후 2월 25bp 인상이 있을 것으로 보며 2023년 2월이 첫 금리 인하가 아닌 마지막 인상 구간일 것으로 전망했다. 불러드 총재는 기준금리 7% 가능성을 언급했고, 이는 10년물 약 8.5%, 30년 모기지 약 10% 수준의 함의가 있다고 설명했다(진행자는 그 정도까지는 아니라고 봄). 인플레이션 논쟁: 제레미 시겔은 연준이 늦었고 디플레이션 가능성이 있다고 주장했다. 빌 애크먼은 인플레이션이 구조적이고 끈적하다고 주장했다. 진행자는 쉬운 부분(상품 등)은 9.1%에서 6.5%까지 내려갈 수 있으나 그 이후는 어렵다고 보며 두 사람의 견해가 결합된다고 평가했다. 부동산 시장: 아파트 수요가 3분기에 약화되었으며 이는 가구 분리(household formation) 감소에 따른 경기 순환적 현상으로 설명했다. 아파트 임대 수요는 단독주택보다 약할 것으로 전망했다. 첫 주택 구매에 저렴한 도시로 인디애나폴리스, 콜럼버스, 필라델피아를 소개했다(투자 권유 아님). 실적 및 소비: 줌은 계약 기간 장기화로 소프트웨어 섹터 약세 가능성을 제기했다. 델은 실적 상회에도 4분기 가이던스 하향. 어반아웃피터스는 매출 상회·이익 미달. 딕스스포팅굿즈는 실적 상회 및 가이던스 상향. 베스트바이는 실적 상회 후 가이던스 유지. 달러트리는 4분기 가이던스 하향으로 소비 둔화 우려를 시사. 리스크 및 기타: 경기침체 우려와 화이트칼라 해고 증가가 언급되었다. 진행자는 부동산 투자 강의 수강생 대상 영상 업로드 및 수강료 인상 예정을 안내했다.
다듬은 글
good evening folks Michael Zuber won rental at a time and these are the five things that you need to know on Tuesday November 22nd first and foremost we've got to talk about the FED we had two more fed presidents speak remember the theme of the last couple of weeks the FED is trying to talk tough and second we are starting to see clear bifurcation of the FED what is often called Hawks and doves so who did we have to speak yesterday we had fed fed president Mester talk about more Fed rate hikes coming she says it is too early for inflation uh to talk about you know reducing cutting pausing she is basically out there saying one data point does not make a trend we must keep at it we must go higher second you have Mary Daly I believe she is the Fed president of San Francisco I could be wrong she is out saying hey it is too early to take 75 off the table I find that pretty interesting we've talked about other fed presidents almost admitting black and white that we are going to get a 50 basis point uh rate hike December 14th I too think 50 is the right answer we've talked about that for months now I think they start the going slower process I do still think the 50 in December leads to a 25 in February I think February is our first Fed rate hike of 2023.
I think we're on this track but I do not believe the FED wants us to think we are on that track I I think they want to get December's CPI December's PPI and really see that there is a true Trend going so again I think the FED is doing what you and I have talked about they are using their second tool and that is their voice that is their ability to leverage the bully pulpit remember of uh president Bullard throwing out there that hey we may have to go to seven percent fed funds rate which would probably mean an eight and a half ten year and haven't forbid a 10 percent 30-year mortgage for housing I do not think we go that high uh but you understand what the FED is trying to do number two we are starting to see I don't know Financial luminaries battle it out in the media uh yesterday's Head to Head seemed to be Bill Ackman and Jeremy Siegel we've talked about Jeremy Siegel a couple of times he of course is the um I forget where he's at I think he's at where is he at he's not at Oxford he's at um Wharton I believe he's at Wharton School of Business uh Jeremy Siegel is out there saying the FED is late uh the fed's not reading it correctly inflation is going to crash through the floor we're going to have deflation all of those things very much like Kathy would on the other side of that now we have Bill Ackman Bill Ackman is talking about inflation being uh sticky he is talking about being structural I stand by what we talked about probably two weeks ago in that I think inflation is really a combination of what Jeremy and Bill are talking about I do believe we have some parts of inflation that will be easy to be the question is how much if we go back to Peak inflation at 9.1 can we get to six and a half with the easy stuff Maybe then I think it gets hard and then I think it gets really hard so I think Jeremy is focused on the easy and I think Bill is focused on the really hard and the real work will of course be in the middle of both of those at the end of the day as someone who's in the real estate business which is the most levered business to uh interest rates I think it is very clear uh that interest rates once we get to the terminal rate uh we will be there for all of 2023.
number three apartment demand is crashing yes folks there are more and more articles talking about apartment demand crashing there are some folks trying to paint a vision of rental rates and all of these other variables what I want you to understand what is happening now is a natural part of the business cycle what do I mean by that well I think it's fair to say that the national media has picked up the recession trend we are starting to see significant layoffs in the white-collar sector what you are seeing is individuals say I am nervous so what you are really seeing I think with apartment demand being weak in Q3 is actually a decline in household formation what is household formation this is when somebody leaves their mom and dad's basement this is when the kids go off and get their place it's where new couples go and you know sign a new lease so I believe what we are seeing is just a normal consequence of a weak economic cycle it's just household formation has declined I think that's what we're seeing I think we saw a big uptick in q1 Q2 sort of coming out of this crazy pandemic and now you see people retreating apartment demand is something we have to watch I told you over the last year or so that I think apartment demand or rent will become softer than single family but we will see how this plays out it is very interesting to watch this now next up we have some I found an article talking about cheap cities to be a first-time homeowner I thought I would share those with you I do not invest in these don't know anything about them but I thought I would share them with you just in case you happen to invest or maybe are looking to research markets number one was Indianapolis number two was Columbus Ohio and number three was actually Philadelphia uh Pennsylvania so again three uh three places if you want to look this up the report was done by smart asset smart asset produced this report and then finally we need to talk about earnings we got some more earnings that are very interesting to talk about both in the tech sector and in the consumer sector on the tech side we have zoom Zoom obviously a technology I use to interview the millionaires every week with you and share with you uh they gave a very light forecast and they're talking about heightened deal security basically that is sales speak for deals are taking longer in the software sector which is a game I played for 20 plus years you get this pipeline you kind of take that over 30 60 90 days if you're an Enterprise it's not uncommon to have six or nine month Cycles but when recessions start when budgets get crimped everyone has to take a haircut so what you are going to see across the software sector which I include Zoom is you are going to see deals take longer you are going to see companies have to negotiate on maintenance agreements you are going to see users hey say hey I've laid off 10 000 people like at Facebook or meta or 11 000 whatever it was I do not need any more licenses maybe they're using Microsoft teams or whatever it is and they're like hey we do not need to buy more seats we have all those licenses from past users so again I expect to see some weakness in the software sector uh we have Dell Dell Technologies Dell Technologies did really well right we thought that uh PC sales would be weak right everybody bought what they needed or they bought two during the pandemic turns out that Dell beat Top Line beat bottom line right which again is a look in the rear view mirror uh however they gave a very weak Q4 forecast right so there are retailers starting to say hey the holiday seasons aren't going to be what we expect so Dell gave a weak forecast Urban Outfitters a retailer Mall based retailer beat Top Line beat bottom line I'm sorry beat Top Line missed bottom line Excuse Me Miss bottom line so they sold a lot of stuff but they didn't make as much money so again that is that night one second you got to turn the page over hey there you go other ones we got this morning Dick's Sporting Goods Dick's Sporting Goods beat Top Line beat bottom line and actually raised guidance folks we have retailers raising guidance that is interesting to think about it's interesting to think about because we've been thinking about Q4 the recession the consumer Dick's Sporting Goods beat Top Line beat bottom line and raised Best Buy not to be outdone this beat Top Line beat bottom line and actually held guidance so again a lot of stuff going on and then finding the final earnings is Dollar Tree Dollar Tree B Top Line beat bottom line however gave a very weak guidance they actually lowered their guidance for Q4 which is interesting we had thought that after Walmart Walmart's report that people were pivoting but now we have Dollar Tree which I would say is you know one one notch below Walmart talking about Q4 being weaker than expected so lots of stuff going on the economy Q4 the holiday season uh lots of stuff to look at so again folks remember it's Thanksgiving week it's time for family it's time to think about what you're thankful for and then finally don't forget if you wanted to attend the Run rental at a time Mastermind you weren't able to make it out to Fresno or you tried to buy your tickets too late uh we are loading the videos in the course for free so if you are a course member uh you got Beth's videos I think it was yesterday or the day before I guess it was the day before we just got Omar's videos and Dion and Mike's videos those will be loaded loaded shortly uh if you don't if you're not in the group I'm sorry that's where we're putting them you can buy the course how to get started one rental at a time today for 320 bucks you can get your buy box get the spreadsheet do the work and get the Mastermind Videos as they are loaded if you want to wait totally fine by me uh the course will go up to 399 once all the videos are loaded so if you like saving money buy it today have some fun and again take care be thankful bye
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