저자: CharlieMunger관련해설채널 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거의 투자 철학과 포트폴리오를 소개하는 해설 영상이다. 멍거는 소수 종목에 집중 투자하는 방식을 택했고, 분산투자보다 확실한 소수 기회에 크게 베팅하는 것이 낫다고 본다. 현재 그의 대표 보유 종목으로 버크셔 해서웨이, 코스트코, Daily Journal, 리우리우(Lee Lou) 등이 언급되며, Daily Journal 포트폴리오는 뱅크오브아메리카·웰스파고·알리바바·US뱅코프 등으로 구성된다. 중국 투자에 대해서는 기업 가치 대비 저평가와 정치적 리스크를 감수할 만하다는 입장이며, 알리바바와 리우리우 투자가 대표 사례로 언급된다. 반면 비트코인은 가치가 0으로 갈 가능성이 높고 통화 체계를 훼손한다며 강하게 부정한다. 멍거의 종목 선정 4원칙은 이해 가능한 사업, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위, 정직하고 유능한 경영진, 안전마진이 있는 가격이다. 인덱스펀드는 장기 횡보기에 수익이 나지 않을 수 있다는 점에서 한계가 지적되며, 좋은 기업을 합리적 가격에 사는 전략이 강조된다. 하락장에 대해서는 버크셔 주가가 여러 차례 50% 하락한 사례를 들며, 장기 투자자는 변동성을 견뎌야 한다고 조언한다. 하락 시 오히려 '잘못 가격이 매겨진 도박(mispriced gamble)'을 찾을 기회가 온다는 관점이다. 영상 자체는 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 제시하지 않으며, 주로 투자 원칙과 과거 사례를 설명한다.
다듬은 글
this is a man who never took a single course in investing Finance business accounting or economics yet somehow managed to become one of the greatest investors in the 21st century Charlie M he created his own investment fund between 1962 and 1975 where he achieved annual average returns of 19.8% and he was key to the growth of Burkshire heway the now largest Investment Company in the world and the sixth largest entire company in the entire world but he didn't do this through conventional textbook type investing he carved his own path to making money in the market for M never matters what other people thinks he just thinks about the facts so let's look at how to invest this year through the manga approach to investing now I would love to go ask Charlie what is the best approach to invest in 2023 what stocks do you recommend how should we go about investing but I got a funny feeling that I won't have the opportunity to ask the 99 year-old genius these questions the next best thing for me is looking at his current stocks that he owns and what he's said in the past about how to invest Charlie M he has two portfolios one is his own personal portfolio and second is the portfolio that he manages at the Daily Journal Corp the manga family portfolio it only has four stocks burshire heway Costco Daily Journal and L lose fund the portfolio that he manages at the Daily Journal it also only has four stocks Bank of America 43% Wales Fargo 38% Alibaba 15% and US Bank Corp 4% the manga approach is only to find a few good opportunities and then B very big on them he has repeatedly said that he finds it easier to focus on four assets where he has a high probability of getting it right than on a 100 I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if you've got four good assets I think the finance professors and the that s the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beard what you'll notice about manga is he doesn't play by the rule book in 2020 when Bitcoin was all of the hype he hated it when all investors flooded to Wall Street decades ago he stayed away when everyone is avoiding investing in China he plows money there the reason that I invested in China is I could get some much more so much better companies at so so much lower prices and I was willing to take a little political risk to get the to get into the better companies at the lower prices other people might reach the opposite conclusion he has two big investments in China One is his Holdings with leelou AKA the Chinese Warren Buffett a great value investor in Chinese stocks and second is his position in Alibaba the second biggest stock in China behind 10 cent this accounts for a decent percentage of his portfolio he sees more positives than negatives with Chinese Investments a position which actually a lot of people disagree with and we found out recently that the Chinese have jumped the ship and this is their last decade too so what is their plan on getting through what you think is a a 10-year timeline for their demise uh beat the Nationalist drum so that when the food and the energy run out everyone is banding together simply because they're Han Chinese that's it that that that's as good as it's going to get and even Moren Buffett his longtime investing partner prefers to just have his money in America and generally stays away from China but manga thinks that China despite the communism despite the political risk and all of the other risks is still a good investment because at the end of the day each year they do get their results they keep producing more Goods more services and more profit which is what an invest the needs maybe something which is not as key as crypto which Charlie mang avoids like the plague Buckle yourselves in because manga will not mint words in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else and Bitcoin does all three and and the first place it's stupid because it's very likely to go to zero in second place it's evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System and the national currency system which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and so on and third it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China he was smart enough to ban Bitcoin in China with all of our presumed advantages of civilization we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China Charlie mang vastly prefers stocks to obviously crypto but also basically any other asset class apart from the manga family owning a few apartment houses they just own stocks whether it's China or the USA and when manga chooses these stocks he has four simple rules that he goes through before buying we have to deal in things that we're capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage and then of course we would vastly prefer a management in place with a lot of integrity and talent and finally no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural visites of life that's a very very simple set of ideas and the reason that our ideas have not spread faster is they're too simple by the way with rule number four that's exactly what I'm doing with the investing Academy you want to pay a price that makes sense right in order to do so to know your paying a p price that makes sense you need to know the intrinsic value so with the investing Academy I release my calculations of the intrinsic value of different American stocks you can join with the link in the description but we all should be going through these four things especially learning the value before we purchase a stock this year but some people do say well you should just invest your money in index funds that's the easiest way to invest in and you'll get Fine Results that way but manga prefers a different way to invest I'd be very unhappy if I had to own an index fund my ambitions are larger I don't don't think the average return of a skilled investor over the next 50 years is going to be as good after all factors as it was over the last 50 years so I think reduced expectations are the best defense any investor has and after that I think work is a pretty good bit there is a danger with index funds first of all people just can't seem to stick to just buying holding them and not selling and this is why the average investor gets so poor results they don't have the temperament to own an index fund and secondly there are certain periods in the market where it is unprofitable to own an index fund when prices are high it can take a long time for index funds to produce results right now we've experienced a small fall in prices but even if you bought an index fund after a small fall in prices is in 1930 it still would have taken 25 years to get your money back even if you bought after the small dip in 1969 it would have taken 24 years to get your money back if you bought after the small dip in 2001 it would have taken 11 years to get your money back index funds can take time to produce results in certain periods of the market maybe just maybe like the one that we are in the strategy that M has used throughout his whole investing life is buying good quality companies for reasonable prices he developed this mental model as he learned and read and actually experienced real life investing this strategy is so effective that he changed Warren Buffett's fundamental style to invest in Buffett he used to only buy cheap companies or he cared about was cheap discount stocks but manga convinced him that this is not the right way to go about investing for long-term investing results over time if even you pay a bit more than what you wanted to those good quality businesses will produce the most profit and especially in times like these where the economy and the market has been shaky bad businesses will go out of business but a good quality business will weather the storm we want to buy something that's intrinsically a very good business meaning that an idiot could run it and it would do all right and then we want that business which an idiot could run successfully to have a wonderful person in it running it and if we have a wonderful business with a wonderful person running it that really turns us on but even if you think it's a good business but you don't fully understand it then the answer is just leave it manga says knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant it is remarkable how much long-term Advantage People Like Us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent analyze a lot of stocks just for fun analyze businesses throughout the year but manga teaches us that you only really need to pick one out of those 100 most of those stocks you analyze you probably won't understand fully and that's fine but what's important is you need to know that you don't know them he says I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don't have any real knowledge interesting fact Jim Kramer made an incredible 2,653 stock picks in the last 7 years yet his own portfolio has underperformed the S&P 500 since its Inception Kramer doesn't truly know what he doesn't truly understand just like Berk your haway or even the Daily Journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about Cann soup and Aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like Jen krer pretends to have now in 2022 stocks went down who knows what the heck will happen in 2023 and Beyond however if stocks do go down we know what manga will be looking to do and we know what most investors will do these two parties will likely do the opposite but Charlie manga knows that it's actually a good thing to not do what the average investor does he says mimicking the her invites regression to the mean but Charlie does not want to be the mean he wants to be above the mean this is why you won't see him panicking or selling when stocks go down he will be looking to buy how worried are you by the declines in the share price of bucks you ha away the difficult Z this is the third time that Warren and I have seen our Holdings and bercher go down top tick to bottom tick by 50% I think it's in the nature of long-term shareholding with the normal vicissitudes and in worldly outcomes and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stock go down and then buy say 50% fact you can argue that if you're not willing to react with Equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get when investing m is looking for what he calls a misprice Gamble and if stocks go down in 2023 and Beyond then more mispriced gambles will come he said a while ago that you're looking for a mispriced gamble that is what investing is and you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced that's value investing you should remember that good ideas are rare when the odds are greatly in your favor bet heavily he did this when he found the genius investor Warren Buffett many years ago he bet heavily there he did this with Costco he did this with leel lose fund and he's currently doing this with Chinese stocks and you might say well a lot of what Charlie manga talks about is simple it's obvious but what I say is if it's simple and obvious and made him into a multi-billionaire then who cares if it's simple if it works maybe we should all do the same we should guard against the effects of hubris and bordon and just keep it simple when choosing Investments
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