Don't Expect Any Rate Cut From US Fed In This Calendar Year: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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미국 5월 고용지표는 강하며 노동시장 신호 혼조 속에서도 경제는 견조하다고 봄. 금리는 정상화됐고 증시는 사상 최고치. Fed는 올해 금리인하가 사실상 없거나 기껏해야 1~2회 가능성으로 시장 기대가 후퇴했고, 인하하면 late-1990s식 주가 과열(melt-up) 위험이 있다고 주장. 인도는 연정 구성에도 민주주의의 견제·균형이 긍정적이며 모디 정책 연속성과 중국 탈출 수혜 기대. 주요 리스크는 러시아-우크라이나·이스라엘-하마스 등 지정학 리스크.

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01. Ed yard is with us he's president at yard research he's uh with us to talk about markets and of course what's happening with us heals there Ed good morning good to have you with us here I mean us jobs once again a bit of a is it a head fake or you think uh This Is Something Real uh because uh you know so many are pointing out that an aggregate level there is slowdown happening even though the jobs number itself for May was strong markets reacted big 15% jump in eels what's your sense and my sense is that the number numbers overall really were consistent with the US economy that's proven to be remarkably resilient to the tightening of monetary policy over the past couple of years I think uh interest rates have normalized interest rates are back to where they were before the great financial crisis and so far the econom is doing fine and the stock markets at an all-time record high I know that the numbers created some confusion because two different measures of employment indicated a different direction for for the labor market but I I side with a number that look looks strong and that's certainly consistent with many other indicators we have in the labor market so um it looks good to me uh Ed hi great to have you on the show so if it looks good I think the next question the market starts asking is will the FED uh step back a little bit from easing what's the sense you have right now and uh is is that possibly something that could bother the market how many rate cards do you think are penil in and will the FED deliver well I I've given my opinion on what the FED should do over the rest of the year is simply to take a vacation just take the rest of the year off I I don't think they're going to be doing anything I think that the econom is doing well enough inflation's moderating that there's really no justification at all for lowering interest rates and if they go ahead and lower interest rates without it being absolutely necessary they could get a melt up in the stock market which would create other problems as we saw in the late 1990s I think the market uh right now is uh back to working on the possibility that there may not be any rate cuts at all I think we started out the year with six to seven rate Cuts then we kind of throttled that back to maybe three then maybe two maybe one um and now I think because of the labor market numbers uh I think at most we're going to get over the next 12 months not over the rest of the year but the next 12 months is maybe one maybe two cuts between now and the end of the year I don't know that we're going to get any Cuts hi Ed U good morning then how do you approach the Indian markets because the dollar Index will remain fairly strong you'll have yields that may not cool off considerably how do you approach a market like India in the past you've said India's always remained an attractive Market and foreigners will the foreign flows will come back now we have a coalition government so we have continuity but maybe not in the form that was expected at least domestically how do you approach Indian markets at current levels given that the FED may not be loosening anytime soon well I I think the election results were actually pretty encouraging in the sense that India is a democracy and as we know democracies can be kind of messy at times and unpredictable and everybody thought that there was a very clear chance that the government would have a majority in in Parliament that Mod's party would have the majority and instead the voters decided they didn't want to provide that majority so there's checks and balances that's a good thing for any democracy and yet I think Modi is very popular from what I understand and his policies are likely to continue to uh get it get move move India ahead in terms of infrastructure spending and taking advantage of this tremendous opport opportunity that India has as countries are looking to move out of China to somewhere uh politically more stable uh okay Ed so quickly to wrap it up I mean the Indian markets at alltime highs wall Street's practically at alltime highs what's the risk if there is one well there's always a risk uh I think the uh risk that inflation uh will stop going down I'm I'm not in that camp but clear clearly there's always a that possibility I think most of the risk that we are facing is a global risk and that is geopolitical risks there's still a very horrible war going on between Russia and Ukraine there's a a horrible war going on between Israel and Hamas and maybe also with some other proxies of Iran and then there's always the concerns about uh what China will or will not do with regards to Ian so I think that's where the risks lie right now but other than that the US economy looks quite good the Indian economy looks quite good Europe looks kind of slow China looks kind of slow you add it all together and I think you've got an environment where Global stock markets have correctly anticipated that uh the Outlook is unbalanced positive okay well for once I guess the market then has gotten a right going by that good talking to you good good talking to you today thank you very much you have a great week and we look forward to connecting again