저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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총선 출구조사가 현 정부 압승(370~400+석)을 시사하며, 결과 발표 후 숏 포지션 청산으로 다음 날 시장이 강세로 출발할 가능성을 언급. 과거 델리 선거 사례처럼 출구조사가 방향은 맞지만 승리 폭을 과소평가할 수 있다고 봄. GDP 서프라이즈와 미국 시장 호조도 긍정 요인으로 제시. 다만 외국인(FII) 매도 여부가 단기 수급의 핵심 변수라고 강조.
다듬은 글
the uni uniformity of exit pole that is a good thing there's no fracture among them in the sense that all this 8 10 agencies who are doing it all of them they are kind of falling at around 370 375 and the some of them were three four of them were talking about as high as 400 so uh this reminds me of uh Delhi uh Delhi polls I think 5 seven years back when when amadm party came for the first time amadm itself was expecting about say 50 55 50 seats or something they ended up getting 67 The Sweep was total so it looks that I mean finally the numbers how it will tally we'll see tomorrow or uh yeah tomorrow but uh my sense is that it will be it will be upward tendency but as far as Market is concerned I think we are done with the I mean it looks that it is almost in the bag that this current government comes with resounding Victory and uh the current policies will continue the so that's an interesting point that the fact that exit polls get the direction broadly right but sometimes they underestimate the extent of the victory so what uh what you're saying is uh the the the actual results when they come out on Tuesday it's possible that it actually could be could be better I mean you gave us the example of Delhi right but we got a trading session between the actual results and uh today tomorrow uh Monday so what is what is tomorrow going to look like yeah I think uh this one day is going to be quite crazy because the all the short short sellers they'll be completely squeezed because they only two choice either to square up tomorrow or they have to wait for hoping that result real results are not as good as what the exit pills are saying so you can wait it out for the Tuesday but my sense is they'll panic and they'll come tomorrow they'll come to cover their positions and hence uh domestics in any case they were buying my sense is that tomorrow Market should be quite uh quite firm and may may may open 3 4% higher if by chance it's a Clean Sweep with 400 plus kind of thing uh because it's a clear goal setting right from day one even before election announcement and I think this is a perfect case of what a clear goal setting can mean even in an election so he has set a goal of 400 up bar Char Char par so if by chance actually this happens uh all the short short Sellers and I think the the mood mood of the nation mood and this is one election which is being watched all over the world it's not only about what we are going to do so what happens for FDI what happens for fi what happens how what kind of publicity Indian election get so I think there this is a proper Global event right now uh and these things will syn very slowly uh uh and we should not forget other things are also happening in the sense that your GDP numbers just came day before or something like that which is Way Beyond almost 1 Point 100 basis point higher than what the economists were saying so lot of things are coming together to say that this this good this party which is starting with Declaration of result is not going to be over just in a day or two it is there could be correction they could be selling by fi whatever but I think it's a much longer party and larger party I mean larger for longer kind of party it is larger for longer I'm sure that Bulls on the street would love the sound of that and Prashant absolutely Ram valid point there GDP data to react to tomorrow and then the US markets themselves this is this perfect setting right because Friday was a good pop even on Wall Street yeah and then uh expectations there going to be good rain you know so that's a very important one for the rural uh sort of uh economy as well uh just to press you on that point and R not this is not a question day to-day but do you think we will uh we we we get a decent move because of these results uh right we make a new alltime high that perhaps will happen with the up move uh you know the upward correction yesterday itself but do you think uh it it opens up upside in the near term I mean because you know if these results hold on Tuesday then from there all the way to the budget which is in July I mean in a way it's a bit of a clean run but the fact also is that can the markets do a lot in that period just your sense yeah Market Market can will do a lot uh but let's not be in hurry there is a there is a guy called fi you know they have almost 15 17% of Market which is about 80 trillion or 80 lakh crores can they can they will have a mejor say because they in in the short I'm saying longer R of course Market will go where it has to go uh because lot many other things coer earnings and other things come in picture but in the shorter term it is a supply and demand and uh uh today demand domestic demand will be eoric but uh foreigners if they keep selling uh if they keep selling then of course it'll be a little subdued but but if they if they turn the tide and if they decide not to sell but actually buy and that particular thing nobody knows uh I mean no chart is nobody can say what is going to happen but if they decide to actually buy or not sell even I think that can change the completely color of the market
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