저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
한줄결론: 피터 쉬프는 금·은 가격 급등과 여름 중 인플레이션발 금융 위기를 예고하며 현금 보유자에게 즉시 금·은 전액 배분을 권했으나, 영상 진행자는 연준 신뢰와 데이터 근거를 들어 이를 전적으로 수용하지 않고 5~6월 CPI와 6/24 GDP 발표를 지켜보자는 입장이다. [핵심 주장 - 금·은 가격] 쉬프는 금 가격이 2020년 이후 약 1700~1900달러대에서 정체된 것에 대해 투자자들이 답답해하고 있다고 말하며, 금과 은 가격의 큰 상승이 임박했다고 주장했다. [금·은 권고] 현금을 아직 시장에 넣지 않은 투자자는 기다리지 말고 물리적 금·은에 전액 배분(full allocation)하라고 권했다. [금 정체 원인 분석] 쉬프는 금이 더 오르지 않는 이유를 투자 커뮤니티가 이번 인플레이션을 예상하지 못했고 연준이 문제를 해결할 것이라 믿고 있기 때문이라고 설명했다. 진행자는 4월 CPI가 12년 이상 최고 속도로 가속했고 언론도 인플레이션을 크게 다루고 있어 '무지' 설명에는 동의하지 않는다고 반박했다. [연준 및 인플레이션 평가] 연준은 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)으로 보고 연내 2% 수준으로 안정될 것으로 기대한다. 진행자는 목재·철강·밀 가격 하락을 근거로 기저효과와 일시적 인플레이션 가능성을 연준 편에서 일부 인정했다. [2008년 비교 및 금리 인상 주장] 쉬프는 2007년 서브프라임 사태 때 연준이 위험을 숨겼던 것과 지금이 유사하다고 주장했다. 또한 시장은 금리 인상을 예상해 금 가격이 억눌려 있지만, 연준은 실제로 금리를 올릴 계획이 없으며 금리 인상은 정치·사회적으로 불가능하다고 주장했다. [거짓 회복 및 스태그플레이션] 쉬프는 경기 회복은 연준이 찍어낸 돈으로 만들어진 허상(false recovery)이며 스태그플레이션과 심각한 공황이 올 것이라고 경고했다. 진행자는 GDP가 거의 팬데믹 이전 수준으로 회복했고 실업률 6.1%는 다소 높지만 경기 둔화 증거는 아직 부족하다고 평가했다. [진행자 판단 및 리스크] 진행자는 쉬프의 주장 중 연준 금리 인상 부재와 회복 허상 주장은 근거가 불충분하고, 인플레이션의 영속성 주장은 판단 유보라고 정리했다. 가장 큰 리스크는 5~6월 CPI가 나쁘게 나올 경우이며, 이때 쉬프의 주장에 힘이 실릴 수 있다. 진행자는 지금 추가 매수보다 데이터 발표를 기다리겠다고 밝혔다. [진행자 포지션] 진행자는 금 153달러 콜옵션(2021.12.31 만기)을 보유 중이며 수익률 25%이고, 5월 데이터가 나쁘면 추가 매수할 가능성을 언급했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 쉬프는 금·은 급등, 연준의 금리 인상 불가, 스태그플레이션, 공황을 전망했고, 진행자는 현 시점 확정적 판단을 유보하며 금 롱 포지션을 유지하되 데이터를 기다리는 중립·관망 입장이다.
다듬은 글
peter schiff a man well known for sounding the doomsday alarm over and over again in today's video we look at peter's newest prediction based off a rather special video he put out on youtube this new dramatic to the point upload makes his predictions very clear and concise today we go over a statement about the upcoming turbulent summer where the potential for a dramatic financial disaster has never been greater one that according to schiff will begin because of inflation strap in and put on your tinfoil hats because if what he says becomes true this summer will make 2020 look like a breeze compared to the upcoming storm that will decimate the us and world economies we start off with a preamble of sorts a statement about gold prices if you're not familiar with ship he's a major proponent of physical gold investing and in the past few months many fans of his have become angered at the fact that we're getting inflation concerns and the money supply has never been greater yet the price of gold has sort of stagnated following the pandemic hovering around 1700 and struggling to inch back up to that 2 000 level we saw in 2020.
this is especially hard to swallow as bitcoin a gold competitor to many has seen an exponential rise in price despite facing crazy dips along the way peter starts off the video with this and it's been a long hard grind for gold to get back up to 1900 and i know along the way a lot of people have been expressing some frustration by gold's failure to make an even bigger move faster well i want to assure everybody that i think your days of frustration will soon come to an end and i think vindication is around the corner because i do believe a major move up in both the price of gold and silver is eminent and in fact to the extent that people still have cash on the sideline that they are yet to commit to the market i would not wait i suggest that everybody have a full position so whatever you feel your allocation is going to be to physical gold and silver my suggestion is that you fully allocate now okay so ship is saying that gold prices are ready to spike up this is not breaking news nor very interesting but it's the reason why he thinks gold will have an explosive growth in price that makes this explanation worthwhile take a listen to the details this time about the why but the real reason that gold was not responding even stronger despite this huge increase in inflation is that the vast majority of the investing community that did not expect this inflation and they are completely surprised by what is happening they also expect the federal reserve to be able to solve the problem before it really gets started in fact the federal reserve is convincing everybody that there's nothing to worry about because whatever inflation they're experiencing or witnessing is transitory so there you have peter essentially saying that the reason gold has not been doing so well is because the investing public is rather unaware and surprised at inflation levels but this in my opinion is false i'm going to give you some real data the fed acknowledges that inflation is indeed taking place they've made it pretty clear based on their previous statements and the april cpi number also showcases this according to the official report inflation in april accelerated at its fastest pace in more than 12 years and you saw the market as well as the media react inflation is a huge subject on cnbc and even on mainstream channels like cnn and fox news people are becoming very aware of rising prices so i don't really buy this unaware narrative however it is true that the federal reserve is indeed dismissing the current round saying that the numbers are transitory with the expectation that inflation settles down later this year around the two percent range targeted by the central bank unlike others around youtube and financial media i'm going to take the unpopular and rather boring position of giving the feds some credit there is a chance that all these prices are base effects and temporary inflation following an unprecedented pandemic before you click off and call me an idiot let me present you some evidence and defend the fed for a second look at lumber prices which have been the go-to commodity showcasing how bad it is out there as you can see they have peaked and are coming down heavily off the top and now it's beginning to look like they're in a downtrend the same can be said for steel which saw a huge decline off the top and wheat as well what happens in the next month will be the true indicator for the rest of the summer if we get a poor cpi number in may and june then shift will be absolutely right at that point the fed should begin to panic but i'm not dismissing this idea that this is transitory just yet it could very well be ship disagrees though he's convinced that we're screwed comparing these press releases to 2008 saying that the fed is purposely hiding a giant problem the same way they did when they claim that the housing issue is no big deal take a listen well to me i've heard this song at dance before because it is eerily familiar to what the federal reserve did back in 2007 when facing the subprime mortgage crisis because i had been forecasting this crisis for years i knew that the fed had inflated a housing bubble i understood the structure completely and i also knew the financial crisis that was going to ensue once the bubble popped and so when the subprime crisis hit in 2007 for me that's what i knew for sure that all my years of warning were correct i mean i thought i was right but i didn't actually have the proof that i was right until subprime blew up the problem was even though it should have been obvious the feds still ignored the signs and in fact the fed went out of its way to convince everybody that what they were seeing in subprime was contained you see peter is under this belief that the fed and the market are not on the same page in regards to fighting inflation in his opinion what's happening is that the market is anticipating higher rates but the fed in reality has no plans of actually doing this to be clear as far as we can tell there have been some indications through recent press releases that the federal reserve is considering rate hikes if you believe the print of course the market is anticipating this and it's causing gold prices to be suppressed as higher rates mean lower gold however ship is convinced that this is all talk he believes that the federal reserve has actually no plans to raise the rates and the markets are about to be in for a huge surprise in fact according to his line of thinking raising the rates with quote caused the entire house of cards they help build up to collapse overnight something they can never do and pull the trigger on because it would have severe ramifications politically and obviously socially so in simple terms this all comes down to who you believe if you read the statements the fed will raise rates if the cpi numbers continue to be bad if you look at ship and read the recent history the fed will ignore inflation and continue to pretend it's not there ultimately only time will tell but the trigger will be the may and june cpi number if that one is bad and the fed continues to be all talk then ship will have a strong point the second part to this is what he calls the false recovery this idea that the economy never really bounced back from the pandemic but instead it's this facade built up with printed money this is the part that according to him will cause a severe depression take a listen to his exact words and so the fed may talk about fighting inflation but they're never actually going to fight because they would lose so in fact they're going to surrender without a fight and there is no normalization coming for monetary policy in fact the fed is actually going to be throwing gasoline on the inflationary fire because we are going to have stagflation this recovery that everybody is talking about is a myth we haven't recovered from anything all we're doing is spending the money the fed prints but because the fed has printed so much money for us to spend the price of everything that we want to buy is going through the roof and so when the markets come to term with this reality then the price of gold is just going to go ballistic and before it does you want to buy as much gold and silver as you can according to investopedia stack inflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices so are we really headed down this path now for that to be true we would see it in the stats and according to gdp figures we are far from this looking at this graph we can see that gdp has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels and given the current expected growth we will surpass the pandemic dip in the upcoming year the true test will come with the june 24th gdp press release a miss on growth would raise concerns but until the data comes out shift is all talk on this one although there are concerns on the other side of the equation with the civilian unemployment rate at 6.1 percent the overall theme is that he's sounding the alarm a bit too early for the market i don't think the analysts and hedge fund managers on wall street are being stupid here they're only following the latest information ultimately there just isn't enough out there to validate shift's predictions but by mid-summer we'll have a much better picture so if we review ship has stated that the fed is lying and really has no plans to battle inflation with interest rate hikes and for that we can say there really isn't any solid evidence as the fed has made it pretty clear that changing the rate is something they're looking at then he stated that inflation is permanent and not transitory that too is unclear at this point we're seeing signs of price hikes slowing down so there could be a chance this is indeed transitory but a better prediction can be made during the summer once the may and june cpi numbers come out and finally shift claims that this entire recovery is bs and for that we have conflicting evidence the unemployment rate is slightly elevated however the gdp numbers look alright so unless we get a future slowdown or a missed estimate this is also unclear ultimately shifts points cannot be totally dismissed but before i go out there and get myself into a massive goal position i'm going to hold out until more data is released full transparency i'm currently long gold with a 153 dollar call on the gold expiring 1231 an option position i'm up 25 percent on and will likely add to if the data in may gets bad 're interested in watching more content like this and consider signing up for blockfy using my affiliate link down below sign up with blockfy and for a limited time you can earn a crypto bonus up to 250 dollars when you open up a new account
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