저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부가 Fed 이사 Lisa Cook의 모기지 사기 의혹을 제기하며 해임을 압박하고 있으며, 영상은 이를 대출 기록으로 분석해 사실상 정치적 공세로 보고 있다. Fed 독립성 훼손 우려가 장기적으로 신뢰도를 떨어뜨리지만, 단기적으로는 금리 인하 압력과 가능성을 높인다고 본다. 9월 금리 인하 확률 84.5%를 언급하며, 잭슨홀에서 파월이 매파적으로 나오면 시장 충격 가능성을 경고한다. 빅테크 집중도와 AI 투자 둔화 우려도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Well, another day and another threat to fire somebody else from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. There is a lot to unpackage here and boy oh boy have we done some extra research on this to actually corroborate what Bill Pay is saying. Now, I personally have been a little bit of a Bill Pay critic because I feel like he goes on X every single day and just bends the knee to how ter to Donald Trump about how terrible Jerome Powell is.
But today is a very interesting day because I actually agree with something Bill PTE is doing right now. Bill suggests, which is probably politically directed by Trump, especially since right now the only investigations that the Trump administration is really publicly pursuing are against Leticia James, Adam Schiff, and now Lisa Cook at the Fed, a Biden appointed uh Federal Reserve Board Governor.
Obviously, Schiff and Leticia James, you know, Democrats, Schiff, uh, California Democrat, and then, of course, Leticia James, that Democratic attorney who, uh, wanted to get Trump, right? All of them now facing mortgage fraud allegations. And what's very fascinating is the evidence that we were able to dig up given that we're in the real estate industry and got a real estate startup after all, House Hack.
You can invest in it over at househack.com if you want. It's open to nonacredited investors. You can even use a credit card if you wanted to. I don't recommend it because the fees are a little higher for us, but it's no difference for you. People are earning their reward points investing in house. It's funny.
But anyway, take a look at this. So, Bill PE posted fraud at the Federal Reserve and basically what he says and alleges is that Lisa Cook conducted uh or got a loan on her home in Michigan that she already had. So, it would be a refinance. She took out a refinance and then just 2 weeks after taking out a refinance on the Michigan property as a principal residence ended up taking out a loan on an Atlanta condo.
also as a primary residence. Now, Fanny does have a few potential reasons that you could have two primary residences. It's unclear that any of those reasons though would really qualify for Lisa Cook's situation. Uh, as if you go to the Fanny website, you'll see the following. You could see that you could only have one principal residence which is the property that you occupy quote most of the year.
There are some carveouts for military service members or parents of children who can't qualify in which case they could be a nonoccupant co-borrower as a principal residence. Uh or they provide housing uh for or or as like their children provide them housing when they don't have the income. But Lisa Cook obviously has uh the income.
So we don't think she qualifies for one of these other reasons for having multiple primary residences. And so what we did is we looked up as many of the deeds and documents as we could. And here's what we found. So the first thing is we found this mortgage document on the Michigan property. Now I have removed any personal information here that is not public.
We already know very publicly based on what has been publicly announced by the director of the FHFA, Bill PE, that she owns this property in Michigan. CNBC is talking about how it's in Ann Arbor. I didn't even go as far as saying that. Uh, and so I've removed any kind of other additional identifying information like the mortgage loan number here or whatever.
But what we know is that this loan was received on June 18th, 2021. Now, June 18th, 2021 is when she essentially closed on this loan. And she got this loan for $23,000. It looked like at the time it was a 15-year mortgage, and which you can get on investment properties as well, mind you. Uh, the mortgage documents did include the following clause.
Unless otherwise agreed upon in writing, which there were no amendments that I could find for this. Who knows, maybe there was, but unless otherwise agreed in writing, the borrower shall occupy, establish, and use the property as the borrower's principal residence within 60 days of the signing of basically the mortgage.
So, in other words, in the middle of June, she took out a principal refinance on her home in Michigan. And here's the signature block zoomed out, which I purposefully show because you could see the signature blocks that Bill PTE gives. And I just want you to see that I I too have this similar signature.
And I have a zoomed out document to show you like here's the zoomed out version of the document. Uh it's like a 15-page mortgage. Now, within 15 days thereafter, she ended up closing right here on July 2nd on a condo in Atlanta for $62,000. And this particular mortgage loan shows right here, July 2nd, a mortgage loan amount of $540,000.
Now, what's interesting about that is while I couldn't get the actual mortgage document because this document number goes to nothing, which is why I'm showing it here because the document number goes to nothing. For some reason, it's missing. But what's interesting is if you bought a place for $62,000, how do you get a mortgage loan for $540,000 unless it's an owneroccupied loan?
because 540 divided by 602 is an 89.7% loan to value which means it had to have been an occupied loan because you can't do 10% down on an investment property. You have to do at least 20% down and more commonly do 25% down on an investment property. Now, this property, this Atlanta condo, does not list a homeowner exemption on the property tax rules.
Uh so she's no longer claiming it as as you know an owner uh occupied property on the tax roles at least as far as what we can see and we can see that that's that might be fair because it was rented out in July or listed at least for rent in July of 2022. Now typically when you get an owner occupied loan you're only agreeing to live in it for a year.
Okay. So maybe the fact that it was listed for rent is fair, but how do you say I'm going to live in a property for for for a year on June 18th and then happen to 2 weeks later take out a loan on a home that you're buying in Atlanta saying you're going to live there for at least a year? It's possible theoretically that she closed her refinance in Michigan on the 18th and then on the 19th is like actually I changed my mind.
I want to buy a place in Atlanta and I want to live there instead. Maybe her intent changed but usually it takes more than 15 days to find a property to buy a property and to close on a loan. So, it seems like these were overlapping intentions and that's why the uh FHFA is now referring her to the Department of Justice for criminal charges, which Donald Trump is now suggesting this is all he needs to potentially fire Lisa Cook for cause.
Donald Trump says Cook must resign now, quoting the Bloomberg article on this. And uh the Wall Street Journal is saying Trump considers firing Cook after the accusation of mortgage fraud and that's because you know they they are getting this insight from inside the White House. You know leaks from reporters or to reporters or whatever.
Now Trump could fire a Fed governor for cause according to a 1935 law which says that if you know they do something wrong they could be fired. Bill PE thinks this is exactly the kind of cause that would allow Trump to fire this Biden appointed Fed governor. Keep in mind that Fed Governor Cougler already stepped down suddenly.
This is kind of like a died suddenly here. Uh stepped down. Uh and what you end up getting is this question that it was a surprise from colleagues that she stepped down. And a lot of people were wondering, okay, why did she step down? I personally made this analogy earlier, but I think what happened uh is you ended up getting uh a Trump, you know, staffer calling up Georgetown going, "Hey, Georgetown, uh we need you to give Federal Reserve board member Cougler a really good job offer should an offer she can't refuse should she steps down at the Federal Reserve." Now, why would Georgetown do that?
Because Georgetown doesn't want to be like a Harvard or Columbia or UCLA that gets fined millions of dollars from the Trump administration. They'd rather give Cook a really cushy or um Cougler a really cushy salary and go, "Hey, Cougler, why don't you come back and work for us? Leave a vacancy at the Fed." The vacancies at the Fed are filled by Trump.
So Trump is literally going down the list of people he doesn't like. Let's investigate Schiff in California. Let's get back on Leticia James. Oh, we don't like the Fed. We can't fire Powell. We can't cut the head of the Leviathan off. Oh, let's investigate all of the underlying board members. Oh, Cougler, get her a job at Georgetown.
Gone. Now he can put his Trojan horse in. Oh, Lisa Cook tends to vote with JPAL on holding rates steady. H. Ah, do we have any dirt on her? Oh, what's this? You got a $23,000 mortgage within two weeks of getting a new mortgage in uh in in Georgia. How interesting. Let's refer you to for fraud. Oh, mind you, also on your financial disclosures in 2023, you indicated that you had two mortgages on personal residences.
Well, this is a 2023 disclosure. Even if it was legal to have mortgages on two personal residences, how do you have mortgages on two personal residences here when literally one of those you listed for rent? So, it's obviously an investment and not a personal residence anymore. So, yeah, I think the thing is when you get into politics, you know, somebody like Trump who says, "I'm not going to weaponize the justice system." I think you need to recognize the justice system was so weaponized against him that he's going to do absolutely anything in his power to weaponize the justice system back.
Now obviously all of this leads to Jhole. So Jhole is really interesting because Jhole comes Friday and Lisa Cook is at Jackson Hole. Now, you know, you already know this that you know, Meet Kevin is not only sending his 10 buy alerts for the next 10 years over the next 6 to 8 weeks here to all course members, but you could use coupon code Jhole before Friday, before this offer expires to get all eight courses, every trade alert, the 10 10-year buy uh uh list, every alpha report, every private liveream, everything over at the Meet Kevin membership, everything in one price.
Uh, and you can get that over at mecaven.com. Uh, on Monday, for example, we thought that Tesla was going to go to 318, went to 318 within 3 days. On Monday, we said we're not bullish Q's calls. We actually think we're going to lose 577. What happened? Every single day this week has not been a bullish day for the Q's.
We called that Monday morning before the market open. So, if you want these sort of insights, make sure you're part of the alpha reports, the mechan membership. You pay once and you get lifetime access. It's great. You want these lines. I mean, you can't make this up. Look at this. Intel perfectly rejecting the 2387 line.
Just another example of how these lines kick butt. Uh, and we'd love for you to not only see the lines that we have, which you could see regularly, but also then how we make them, how we It's It's more than just here's my take of what's happening. It's teaching you so you could see how I get the alpha that we utilize and then get trades on.
So do check that out over at mekevin.com for the mikv membership. That said, a lot of people really focused on the Federal Reserve this week. Uh and obviously, you know, if Donald Trump is able to gut the interior of the Federal Reserve and basically get a bunch of people to vote for rate cuts, then maybe that increases the odds of rate cuts.
If you actually go look at world interest rate probabilities right now, we have an 84.5% chance of a rate cut September 19th or sorry, September 17th. The problem with that is if Powell ends up hawking at Jhole on Friday, then we're screwed because we're going to be in a place where the market has to now unpric an 84% chance of rate cuts.
Uh, and even if that goes down to a coin toss, it's going to lead to a little bit of nervousness in markets. Bloomberg, I don't know that I necessarily agree with this, but Bloomberg is noticing calls selling accelerating on Meta, Tesla, and Amazon for spot gamma. Top eight stocks in the S&P 500 now represent more than 33% of the index, which is leading to people being concerned about a slowing of AI spend by Nvidia or by companies relating to Nvidia.
So like Meta for example talking about lowering tapex or reducing AI roles uh and uh and potentially the impact of higher interest rates for longer on on uh you know the broader economy. So we'll see. But this is uh this is definitely some of the drama that's going on right now. And uh I hate to say it but for the first time in in a while because I' I've always looked at Bill PE as just basically a kneebender.
But you know me like first of all my goal is to be hated by everybody. But the second thing is my goal is to be right. My goal is accuracy. So like if what Bill Pton is saying is right, I'm gonna tell you what's right. If I think he's being, you know, a bullshitter or a knee bender, I'm going to tell you that.
Uh and if I I think they have evidence that something he's saying is wrong, I'm going to tell you that, too. But in this case, based on what I'm seeing so far, as somebody that, you know, I don't think I'm like bragging here. I think I'm an expert in real estate. That's like my bread and butter. Uh especially with our real estate startup house.
I I I think that there is a lot of smoke here and it's going to be really hard for Ko to argue that her intentions changed magically within two weeks when she just closed on a refinance for her home in Michigan. she probably made an oopsie-doopsies here and as a result she'll probably honestly they're replaced and then Donald Trump is going to have you know two more people who were voting uh with Powell now voting against Powell because they'll end up being you know Trump chills basically.
Now does that lead to some questioning of Federal Reserve independence? Absolutely. Of course. uh you know in the longer term yes that does affect Federal Reserve credibility but in the near term uh it does also increase the likelihood of uh you know getting more rate cuts sooner because you're going to get a whole lot of pressure on Powell and you're going to get a lot of dissension voting against Powell and uh it's just a matter of time until Donald Trump finds yet another governor to start spitting on uh or potentially looking for cause to fire.
Still haven't heard from the Powell lawsuit, by the way. Mostly I think that Powell lawsuit's going to be a really tough one. You would really have to argue, especially since Powell has not only Supreme Court essential immunity, but uh sovereign immunity. You'd really have to argue that uh Powell's building out of the Federal Reserve basement, which was approved by so many different layers of government, was somehow gross negligence and incompetence, and that that would be the way that Trump could sue Powell.
But uh the aggression continues and it gives you a breakdown full breakdown of what's going on ther.
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