저자: Kevin · 외국인
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관세로 인한 수입물가 상승(수입품 약 5%, 국내 약 3% 추세 이상)이 확인되어 9월 금리 인하가 불확실해졌다는 주장. 고용·CPI 지표가 뜨거우면 금리 인하가 무산되고 2y/10y 스프레드 확대가 경기침체 신호가 될 수 있다고 봄. 주식은 금리 인하보다 유동성(돈 찍기)이 지지하며, 약세 조정은 매수 기회로 제시. 영상 중반 이후 주식·부동산 홍보 및 유료 구독 권유가 다수 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Markets are selling off and a lot of people are concerned about that 15.4% chance that Jerome Powell is not going to cut in September. In this video, we've got to analyze what could potentially happen if JPOW doesn't cut. Why would he not cut? And what are markets concerned about? Did Mick T just tell us something that Jerome Powell might be paying close attention to?
Yes, we might actually in fact start there because Nick T retweeted this analysis uh from pricinglab.org. This analysis indicates that imported goods now cost 5% more and domestic goods now cost 3% more than pre-tariff trends predicted that they would. In other words, these were the trends of prices right here overall on domestic and imported goods and here they are afterwards.
So in other words, we thought that prices would continue to go down and then of course Donnie Te's tariff moves have unfortunately shaken the boots of tariff expectations. Now, this creates some potential issues because these are going to be data sets that Jerome Powell pays attention to. Jerome Powell is the kind of person who likes looking at data, at least so he tells us.
He also likes riding his bike and u talking quietly at restaurants. Okay, these are just small little snippets of things that we've heard over the last few years from. But that said, take a look at this. This is a pricing data set based on various countries and sort of the pricing of goods uh we receive from various countries.
You can see Canada's yellow, Mexico is green, uh China is red and the US is uh blue here. You can see before Donald Trump really started talking about tariffs, so before March of 2025, we saw a very consistent downtrend. Uh, I added these blue or purple bars right here just to give us what looks like maybe a a range of best fit for the downtrend that we've seen in pricing.
That downtrend that we've seen in pricing has really been robbed by tariffs. Now, if we average out the last 6 months on CPI levels like Donald Trump does, and if we include shelter prices, which really have very little to do with uh with with tariffs, sure, it looks like inflation's only running at a 1.9% annualized rate with Donald Trump's cherrypicked math.
But the reality is when we actually look at imported goods, prices are skyrocketing. Not only are prices for imported goods skyrocketing, but we aren't even seeing the full impacts of these yet. That's the greater concern that Jerome Powell is going to pay attention to. Because even though these make up a smaller portion of overall prices, they change consumer and investor psychology, which could be why we're seeing markets sell off now as we potentially price in the risk that Jerome Powell does not cut in September.
Take a peek at this conclusion from the pricinglab.org tariff impact piece. Tariff announcements led to rapid though still moderate price increases. A rise of about 4% since early March or 5% relative to the trend that we were on. Chinese goods experienced the largest and most persistent price pressures because they account for 30% of all goods that we tend to import in sort of an import basket.
When we look at these, retail prices began rising within one week of the March 4th tariff announcement. Since then, prices have been consistent and gradual, and we have seen a sustained pass through of price increases due to tariff announcements. However, these price increases may not yet be fully recognized.
Why? Because people companies front-loaded inventories. A lot of consumers front-loaded purchase purchases before tariffs. One of the reasons why we believe we've seen very strong retail sales data or even auto sales data is because a lot of people got motivated to buy before the tariffs arrive. It was the best selling moment.
It was really like I mean frankly coupon code Jhole wherll eight courses, Kevin's trade alerts, Kevin's best 10 picks for the next decade that I'm going to be buying and sending trade alerts on and access to the alpha report you get every single morning the market is open where we called the power of this 57724 line over the last 24 hours uh over the last two alpha reports and warned against going for calls on the cues.
very important warning because the markets are selling off now and we called it before it happened both of the last two days. So be part of the alpha report and get that pay tax write off too especially if you're trading or investing. Write write this off against your gains. Talk to your CPA. But anyway, check that out at me.com and use coupon code JHole before Friday because that's Jackson holding it.
But anyway, look at this. When you have this uh this comment right here, this is going to be something JPAL reads. This uncertainty likely discourages firms from making immediate or full pricing adjustments contributing to gradual or even uneven pass through of inflation from tariffs. What you really have is a situation where companies might end up raising prices even more now that we have certainty on tariffs and companies that were waiting with their pre-tariff sales and inventory sell through might now actually have to fully raise prices because of tariffs because now the tariffs are here to stay and now the real pricing impact is coming.
Unfortunately, this is the kind of stuff that Jerome Powell is going to be reading. And these are the issues that are going to keep Jerome Powell potentially on a hawkish point of view. And this is where we can take a peek at the sheet that I put together. What if Powell doesn't cut? First, we have a few catalysts that are going to help us determine the directionality of Jerome Powell's actions.
So between now and the Federal Reserve cutting day, uh hopefully cutting day of September 17th, we do have Jhole on August 22nd, that's in just 3 days, Jerome Pal's opening speech will be at 7:00 a.m. Remember, this is also coupon expiration day, uh which means a big price increase. Uh just like every previous time we've had a coupon expiration, the price goes up.
PCE comes out on the 29th. This will be less interesting because uh this is going to be a um sort of a July recalculation of CPI and PPI and so it's less interesting. This one doesn't matter much at all. I'll italicize it because it just doesn't matter much. We'll have the ADP jobs report on the fourth which matters less than the jobs report on the fifth.
All times here at Pacific, we are looking for an estimate of 88,000 jobs. Uh the current 3month average is 33,000. And if we end up where we get some kind of like, you know, red flag basically where we get some kind of uh 100k plus read, if we get a 100k plus read, we will probably guarantee no rate cuts because it will show Powell that this 33,000 3month average job gains trend of the May, June, July period uh is potentially over.
And this would be good economically because it would mean maybe we're not going into a recession. Uh because right now, you know, if we remove health care jobs from our last 3 months of job reads, we would be negative jobs May, negative jobs June, and we would have only had 15,000 jobs in Julyish because we had 73,000 jobs total 55,000 of which were healthcare.
So 18,000 jobs outside of healthcare. So outside of healthcare, we're really not growing. This is why we really need a rebound jobs report on 95. This is probably going to be the most critical for Powell because if we get a weak jobs report, maybe then we have a chance of a rate cut, but not with these inflationary numbers.
You know, the only way you get that rate cut is if you get a really damaging jobs report. So you probably, you know, to confirm a rate cut, uh, you you want to see under 50k jobs. Now remember, keep this in mind, rate cuts are not supportive to the stock market. Money printing is. A weak economy burps earnings at companies and stocks go down.
And this is, I think, what the stock market is is slowly pricing in a little bit today with uh with some of the pain we're seeing. AMD down 4%, Nvidia down 2%, you've got the Q's down 1%, Tesla was green by a percent, now it's red by a percent. You got Palanteer selling off 6%, Figma's down 8%, bullish on after the IPO down 8%, Circle down 4%, Meta down 2%, Hood's down 4%.
We got Ethereum's down, Bitcoin's down 113. you know this maybe just a healthy pullback obviously but these are the reasons right so PPI on the 10th CPI on the 11th no estimates yet for these these will obviously be important as well but we expect these to be hot expect this to be hot uh and then also expect CPI to be hot so really this is the most important for you you want to see jobs if you want rate cuts you need to see jobs coming weak but then that's also bad for recession jobs coming strong, then you're looking at, you know, potentially rate hikes, right?
Strong jobs could signal rate hikes. And Powell could actually set that up. Powell could set up rate hikes uh this Friday if jobs strong and inflation strong. We already know that inflation is strong. So, if we already know that inflation is strong, then we have this continued risk that you could uh uh see see rate hikes get talked about on Friday.
Right now, the odds of no cut are 15.4%. So, let me be clear about that. That means you have an 84.6% chance of a rate cut in September. All of that has to be unwound if we end up getting a hot Jobs report and J Palocks to us. If you get no cut, my assumption is that we are going to see the 210 spread skyrocket.
You probably end up seeing 4% on the 2-year Treasury, 5% on the 10-year Treasury. Now, why does that matter? It matters because as a warning sign, not of the bottom. This is not a bottom indicator. It is a top indicator. Okay? At the end of 2007, beginning of 2008, you had a skyrocketing of the spread between the two and the 10 treasury from 50 basis points to 100 basis points and then 170 basis points.
That was your early warning sign that we were in recession. Right now, we sit at about 56 57 basis points. Okay. The same pattern happened in COVID. The same pattern happened in the 2000 bubble and the same thing happened in the 1990s recession. The only time we didn't see it happen or the only time we didn't see a spike was right here in the 1995 soft landing.
Every spike, early9s spike, dot spike, 2008 spike, the uh COVID bubble spike, every single one of the spikes meant recession, recession session. This is why when we're sitting at the level we sit at right now, I say that 50 basis points is shock territory because once we start escaping this soft landing territory right here or 50 to 60 basis points, once we escape this area, we remove the odds of a soft landing and we're basically being told by the bond market that a recession is imminent.
Okay, this happened again during COVID, during the 2000 bubble, during the '90s recession. It doesn't call a bottom for you. It's a warning of the start of the recession, not the bottom. The bottom is when the money printer turns on usually, although it might be a little harder with AI now for the money printer to actually get those jobs to come back, which is another unique risk factor, but topic for a different video.
Now, if Powell sets up for a rate hike, it would be a middle finger for Trump. Honestly, Powell would probably get some cheer out of giving uh Trump the finger. Just saying. I like I know he's not supposed to be political, but I think there's a chance he would get a little bit of excitement out of like having a justified reason for giving Trump the middle finger.
I also think that if Powell sets up for a rate hike or no rate cut, he is basically signaling that the inflation risks are far from over and that the Fed has started to freak out over inflation risks. Now, some people said, "Hey, but Kevin, last year the Fed cut 50 and rates rose 100 basis points." This is correct.
This is because we had weak labor markets and the market thought that the Fed was responding appropriately. We triggered the SO rule. We had bad unemployment reads. Labor market looked very weak. Fortunately, through, you know, whether it was Trump enthusiasm or the impact of the rate cuts, we ended up rebounding.
This year, a no cut would probably signal rates up because it would signal that the labor market is strong enough to signal no cut and we have actual risks of stagflation because of the underlying inflation we're seeing from tariffs. which it'll take a while for Donald Trump. I don't think he'll ever wake up to realizing that what he does is inflationary, but whatever.
This then increases the odds that we have to unpric rate cuts and price in rate hikes. In my opinion, also we would see a sell off in stocks, which could be a modest pullback, maybe a buy the dip opportunity. you know, we're going to have our our regardless over the next, you know, six to eight weeks, we're going to have our 10 stocks to buy for the next decade buys.
Like I'm going to be buying them as well and we'll be announcing those just to course members and the alpha report. Uh and then of course when when my trades go in and as I'm buying them, you'll be getting those. So make sure you're part of that alpha report. Remember, you pay once, you get lifetime access.
You could be here five years and see how that that list is going or or in 10 years when you want the the next list. I mean, there'll probably be another list before then. We'll see. But, uh, we'll still be holding our 10-year basket from now. So, uh, markets are under the impression that rate cuts are supportive of stocks, right?
Rate cuts usually equal slow down, meaning down EPS, right, which is bad. So, that's why you'd get some sell down here. What makes it more likely of no cut? Okay, we kind of already talked about that with numbers. Uh, and then somebody mentioned, I think it's Scott, our good buddy Scott in the chat here mentioned that government layoffs are coming.
these technically that 200,000 level of government job layoffs take place in September which means we might not actually see these numbers show up on the unemployment rules until the October or November releases for the September or October data sets. So we actually still have a couple months before we might see some of that data in my opinion.
Though yes, that is a negative uh factor coming. And then of course longer term concern uh would be that once we go into a recession job losses due to AI won't get rehired and that we you know this is my opinion that we're going to see the most money printing ever in the history of money printing because it's going to take so much more to actually get us out of the pooper duper this time around.
And this isn't a way of saying this time is different. It's actually saying this time is exactly the same because every single time we go into like some kind of crappy recession era or whatever, we money print our way out, right? We we have to money print to get the hell out of the disaster. The reality ends up being that as we money print our way out, AI ends up being such an issue that and it's so hard to gain jobs that what ends up happening?
We end up in a situation where the Fed has to print way more than we ever have before in the history of money printing. And then what? Well, then we're honestly we have the highest deficits ever. Asset owners like specifically I think real estate owners will be really really happy. You know, I don't say that to to Schill house hack.
That's a plan I've been making for you know 3 years because we knew at some point rates would normalize. But you go into a recession, the people who are going to win are going to be people who own assets that can take advantage of leveraging at zero rates. That's the opposite of having leveraged ETFs or margin in your brokerage account.
I'm talking about actual houses that you could break the piggy bank on, right? So imagine this is a piggy bank. Okay, maybe that's a bad piggy bank. You know, imagine you have a piggy bank and it's, you know, $75 million of assets. That's what house hack is. Okay. And and and that's on top. This is not even considering the AI that we're developing, which like we're making some really sick progress.
What I saw in the last 24 hours is really really exciting for our AI at Houseack. That's not even priced into our valuation. I mean, then, you know, read read the paperwork at house hack.com. Read the solicitation. This video is not a solicitation. Just an optimistic CEO here. I could be wrong about everything.
There's risk with every investment. But imagine you have a $75 million piggy bank outside of AI and then you know markets go to crap, margin standards tighten up, leveraged ETFs implode. You can't have leverage in the stock market. Where do you go to get leverage when interest rates are zero? Well, what about a bunch of real assets that have no debt on them that you're not trying to sell to somebody?
You just go to a bank and you're like, "Hey, we have no bank debt on these properties. Can we break the piggy bank on $75 million?" And they're like, "Sure. yours is a quarter of a billion dollars. And we're like, "Yeah, we'll take a quarter of a billion dollars. Thank you very much." And the way you factor that is you do uh you know 75 divid represents uh or or sorry, $75 million represents three, right?
And what happens when you do 75 million represents.3 as your down payment or equity? That's how much you end up holding. 250 millies of assets. It's crazy. So, that's why that's why I make these videos before the poop hits the fan just so you could start thinking. You know, I did a uh a coaching call.
I very rarely do these uh but I did a coaching call yesterday. Really wonderful couple. And uh you know, they they were they were talking about the strategy of potentially flipping a property this winter. And and what we actually found is that, you know, it's ultimately up to them, of course, but it it might make sense for them to hold it because of exactly what we're talking about here.
They own it cash uh and and maybe even buy more uh to to prepare for sort of having the piggy bank ready to go. So, I I found that very interesting and uh I I think they're in a really great situation and that they're they're pretty smart with their tax strategies, too. So, so very intelligent people.
Great great call, too. uh attorney guy was really nice. Uh I mean both of them were wonderful. So uh a very good call. But anyway, uh this gives you a little bit of an idea as to maybe what's going on. Why why are markets selling off a bit today? Uh you know, people are starting to wake up to crap. What if Powell really does go dirty on us? No, at least you can still get coupon code J-Hole and m.
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