Cathie Wood Says EV Market Will 20x In 5 Years! 🚀

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결론: 캐시 우드는 향후 5년간 전기차 시장이 약 20배 성장해 연 4,000만 대 규모가 되고 테슬라 등 혁신 기업과 ARK ETF가 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 시장 전망: 작년 전 세계 전기차 판매량은 약 220만 대였으며, 5년 내 4,000만 대로 증가할 것으로 본다. 이는 전체 신차 시장의 절반 수준이다. 선형 vs 지수 성장: 초기 지수 성장은 선형처럼 보이기 때문에 대부분 업계가 과소평가하며, 이를 무시하는 전문가들을 비판한다. 테슬라 가격 전망: 현재 약 700달러 수준인 테슬라의 5년 베어 케이스(자율주행 제외)는 1,500달러이며, 이는 연 15% 최소 목표 수익률을 충족한다. 테슬라 장기 전망: 향후 10년간 약 10배(최악 5배, 최선 10배 이상) 성장, 시가총액 약 6조 달러 가능성을 언급한다. 테슬라 2026년 인도량: 강세 시나리오 약 1,050만 대(시장점유율 약 25%), 약세 시나리오 약 900만 대(약 22%)를 제시한다. ARK ETF 전망: 5년 내 ARK ETF들이 최소 3배 상승할 것으로 기대하며, 연 복합수익률 약 25%를 예상한다. 다만 이는 보장이 아닌 기대라고 밝힌다. 시장 비교: S&P500 대비 기술 혁신주 수익률 우위를 암시하며, S&P500 기업 절반 이상이 혁신으로 파괴될 위험에 있다고 본다. 리스크: 2021년 초 기술주 조정(약 30% 하락) 이후에도 확신을 유지하며, 기술·통신 버블 때처럼 결국 눈물로 끝날 수 있다는 점을 간접적으로 인정한다. 투자자 비판: 월가 애널리스트 다수와 기관이 혁신 스토리를 믿지 않아 과거 방식의 가치평가에 머물러 있다고 비판하며, 이것이 투자 기회라고 주장한다.

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01. last year there were 2.2 million electric vehicles sold around the world including china the largest market we believe that number is going to 40 million in five years and our confidence in all of these platforms and technologies is only growing and and our confidence in tesla's outlook is only growing many commentators out there actually call me crazy kathy and they still do and they will continue to do so and i love it exponential growth in the early days looks very much like linear growth especially when you're working from a very low base and so most of the industry is linear in its thinking linear growth that is we're focused only on exponential growth if you give us five years the difference between linear and exponential is shocking and so people say with our tesla tesla is now at a little bit below 700 our bear case for it in five years meaning no autonomous is 1500 in this video arc invests kathy wood discusses tesla talks innovation explains why she and arc invest believe the electric vehicle market will grow to about half of all new vehicle sales within five years yeah let that one sink in and kathy wood also explains why she believes that arc invest etfs are likely to see a tripling in value over just the next five years eble so crazy yes and many uh many commentators out there actually call me crazy kathy uh and and and they still do uh and they will continue to do so and i love it and the reason i love it is there's a lot of disbelief in what we're doing the stocks we own if you are using a valuation based on this year or next year and that's your primary screen in terms of either introducing stocks to a portfolio or sizing them you'd never ever buy our portfolios or most of the stocks in our portfolios so in terms of kathy wood enjoying being called crazy loving it to use her own words i totally relate here i understand really i believe what kathy's getting at is this if you have a high level of conviction in your investment thesis you genuinely believe you've done the homework you know just know you've actually done some thinking and research and analysis and looked into the future when holy balls you've developed a very high level of conviction in this thesis in terms of investing and yet the general consensus opinion is that you're crazy that my friends is where the greatest investment opportunities are and to take a rather relevant fact highly meta example this very youtube channel was started primarily because people just weren't saying what i was saying relating to tesla and i couldn't stand it i was having conversations in real life getting laughed off reddit called an autist by the way that's actually true shout out to everyone on the spectrum all sorts of other things people just weren't getting i'm like you know what i can't convince people one-on-one i can't convince people with a reddit post or two i'm just going to put everything i think know and believe onto the interwebs and then when i'm right in the future i'll have a little bit more credibility for next time i sound completely crazy that's all part of the master plan of this youtube channel you guys will notice if you're regular viewers of the channel i regularly ask you guys to set reminders to fact check me and come back and check on my predictions in the future why i'm building up that credibility the more times i'm right making predictions ahead of time that sounded crazy at the time that turn out to be true the more credibility i gain the really crazy thing however is that i personally think despite the fact that tesla stock is 10xed and then some since i started this channel we still have a very long way to go and quite hilariously there's a number of so-called experts in the youtube financial education space not naming any particular names at this point in time that today still do not get the opportunity and it is embarrassing man i see these channels lots of views and i'm like are people listening to this holy dude you not oh my god like it kills me so i'm still continuing to harp on about tesla the opportunity explaining why it can 10x over the next decade or so to around a six or so trillion dollar market cap because once again i sound crazy yet in five or ten years time i'm not going to look so crazy and i'm putting this on the interwebs to be held accountable so somebody please set a reminder 2025 and 2030 on this exact video come back and check me for 2030 2031 call it about 10 years i'm predicting tesla approximately 10 x's and the worst case 5x worst case 5x in the next 10 years best case 10x maybe a little bit more please keep me accountable i want to keep building that credibility yes i'll still be around in a decade or so to cash in on that credibility then and so most people don't understand that we have a five-year time horizon uh exponential growth in the early days looks very much like linear growth especially when you're working from a very low base and so most of the industry is linear in its thinking linear growth that is we're focused only on exponential growth if you give us five years the difference between linear and exponential is shocking let me give you an example last year there were 2.2 million electric vehicles sold around the world including china the largest market we believe that number is going to 40 million in five years now that's almost a 20-fold increase most people do not believe that's possible and the primary reason they believe that is they've never seen it happen now this is unquestionably one of the most savage things that kathy wood has ever said that you probably didn't even realize was absolutely savage let me explain if your method of reasoning i should say not reasoning is to say well i've never seen it happen before so uh who cares about the facts i don't need to think let's it never happened before definitely can't happen the end that is what's known as being a complete i hate to say it so bluntly but that's actually the way that i see things here okay if your first go-to when you're approached with something a prediction a claim etc is to not actually examine the claim and the prediction and the evidence and all the available information data everything to try to understand does this make sense or not is it possible or not if your action instead you should just look around and go well yeah i've never seen that happen before so not gonna happen you are an actual which i think fairly accurately describes a huge number of wall street analysts at this point in time a huge number of people in the mainstream finance media and a huge number of retail investors now to be clear i'm not suggesting that people are morons because of what they believe i mean i could i could go down the rabbit hole shout out to all the scientology i'm not going to start ripping on religions here we'll say that for another video i could but i'm instead suggesting they're morons because of the way they've got to their beliefs for example if you actually reason by analogy and go well never seen an industry grow that fast there's no way in hell there's going to be 40 million electric vehicles sold in 2026 you're a because you haven't examined any evidence that actually has anything to do with that being a possibility instead you've just looked around for an analogy and not reasoned at all so i'm not suggesting because you have differing opinions or beliefs to me that you're a but if you get to those beliefs through moronic means like not actually thinking at all then yep happy to call you a just to be clear and when they thought it was happening tech and telecom bubble it ended in tears which is exactly what they expect uh our portfolios to do you have to go back to the early 1900s to see this kind of exponential growth and take the auto sector that's where we saw exponential growth caused by technologically enabled innovation so no one is expecting 40 million haircut that by half we are now seeing some people saying uh it might get there could get there but nothing like 40.

02. um and in the early days in 2014 the numbers that traditional forecasters were using for evs in the early 20s were like 250 000 we just did 2.2 million if you're a so-called expert and your prediction about the future turns out to be off not by 10 20 30 or even 50 percent not even 100 percent but off by a factor of 10 you miss by a thousand percent that's time that you need to retire or at the very least take a good long hard look in the mirror and ask how on earth was i such a now again i'm not hating here but i'm just trying to illustrate the reason that people are making such massive errors in terms of these predictions is they're reasoning like a they're not looking at the data they're making assumptions and reasoning by analogy because it's easier they're not doing the intellectually rigorous work required to actually understand what's going to happen this is why kathy wood and i can best sound absolutely bananas claiming because keep in mind today's automotive market globally is a little under 90 million units if evs are around 40 million units in 2026 that means they'll be almost half of the entire new vehicle market it sounds mad but arc invest and i actually agree in terms of our predictions let's have a look at my own projections for tesla's deliveries in 2026.

03. here we are looking at my bull case prediction for tesla deliveries running out to 2031. we can see that in 2026 when arc investor is expecting the global electric vehicle market to be about 40 million units i've got tesla in the bull case scenario delivering 10 and a half million units basically a 25 global market share pretty close to where they are today and in my bear case i've got tesla delivering about 9 million electric vehicles in 2026 that would be about 22 of the total electric vehicle market at the time let me know your thoughts in the comments below guys do you think that in 2026 tesla has a possibility of delivering around 10 million vehicles and that the global electric vehicle market at the time will be approximately 40 million vehicles as cathy wood and arc invest are predicting so i think if you give us a five-year time horizon and the multiples we attach to companies at year five are actually uh more mature multiples the va their valuations are going to come down dramatically but their growth rates in terms of earnings are going to be ex exponential and i think it's that concept of exponential if you think about our world what if you think about dividend discount models you talk about gram and dot what are you doing okay if you have this exceptional growth you have it for two or three years and then you decay immediately to uh to gdp growth which by the way we think is going to be very low two to three percent until some of these innovations are um uh get to a level where they start moving the gdp needle um anyway uh so the multiples we use are really more mature multiples than we think we we will actually see at that time but we want to be conservative imagine that crazy kathy's predictions about the future anticipated returns etc she believes to be conservative take some time to let that one sink in and so people say with our tesla tesla is now at a little bit below seven hundred dollars our bear case for it in five years meaning no autonomous is fifteen hundred dollars so it meets our minimum hurdle rate of return which is 15 at a compound annual rate and i know during this correction we've been in a serious correction for innovation for the last six weeks to two months um and i think our i think we're down 30 some odd percent uh from peak to we were down 30 uh some odd percent uh peak to trough what happened because of that correction if if we add up all of our price targets and rates of returns and all that weighted by a position in the portfolio at the peak our price target suggested we would have a 15 compound annual rate of return we're really not comfortable that that was our where we are in other words we had had a a streak of very good performance outperformance um after the correction now the compound annual rate of return that we see is 25 percent so instead of delivering a double over five years this is not a promise by the way our compliance department uh would want me to add that quickly uh instead of a double over uh five years we think we have a triple and our confidence in all of these platforms and technologies is only growing and and our confidence in tesla's outlook is only growing so kathy wood they're expecting not guaranteeing but expecting that the arc invest etfs there's a bunch of them arc genomics arc robotics arc innovation blah blah blah blah arc invest expecting that on average they'll see at least a tripling in value over the next five years i wonder what the s p 500 returns are going to be over that same period of time so it's safe to say you think this is an excellent buying opportunity particularly for those institutions who have been non-believers in the innovation story yeah we we think they're very short innovation and the problem with that uh is that disruptive innovation creates cr creative destruction we think more than half of the s p 500 is in harm's way of being thoroughly disrupted disintermediated uh and so as a if for no other reason they need a hedge it's called innovation kathy wood and arc invest all in on the future heavily invested in disruptive innovation meanwhile the majority of investors out there the majority of wall street analysts the majority of firms out there funds etc all unfortunately and obliviously walking among and investing in dinosaurs and they don't even know it not going to end well