저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
암호화폐 급락의 원인으로 재무부 조사 루머, 터키 결제 금지, 중국 채굴 중단, 바이낸스 청산(약 100억 달러) 등을 언급하고, 이로 인한 디레버리징(레버리지 축소)이 주식·코인 전반의 하방 압력이 될 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션 데이터를 기다리며 향후 6개월간 변동성 큰 횡보장을 예상하고, 마진 축소 및 조정 시 분할 매수를 조언.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here yesterday we had a substantial sell-off in the cryptocurrency market not just in bitcoin but in ethereum and many other coins the entire crypto space had a little bit of a flash crash and what i'm going to talk about in this video is what happened why it happened but then i want to also talk about what this undercurrent is that's sort of happening in markets right now and that's very important for you especially if you are investing in crypto or stocks so the same undercurrent is true in both cryptocurrency and stocks and i highly encourage you pay attention to uh especially that because it could specifically affect you so let's start by what's happening in crypto why it happened uh and then the under current so first things first yesterday we had a big sell-off in the cryptocurrency market all of a sudden uh we saw cryptocurrencies like bitcoin go from you know the low 60 thousands uh all the way down to somewhere around 52 000 uh very very quickly around 7 p.m yesterday this massive kind of drop off and this happens in the cryptocurrency market but there were a lot of rumors as to what the cause may have been there were unsubstantiated and still unsubstantiated rumors that the treasury department was going to issue a fraud claims or potential money laundering investigations into a multiple different financial institutions uh these are still unnamed institutions and we don't actually know if the treasury department is really doing this but this was all having to do with money laundering via cryptocurrency which if the treasury department is like hey y'all are basically putting illegally created money into cryptocurrency and then using cryptocurrency to cover the true origins of where that money came from whether it's from something like illicit activity like drugs or whatever and then kind of washing that money paying taxes on it via cryptocurrency and then introducing it to normal markets that would be very bad for crypto currencies the last thing we want are governments to think that cryptocurrencies are a great tool for money laundering now we already know that this all comes on the back of turkey banning cryptocurrency as a way of buying and selling goods and services so on thursday we had the buying and selling of goods and services with cryptocurrency banned in turkey then we get these unsubstantiated rumors of a potential treasury department investigation then we get the word that potentially hash rates in china fell substantially for crypto miners because there was a massive outage in a certain province that mines a lot of cryptocurrency and at the same time we hear that binance or in general the cryptocurrency market with the majority generally being financed since they transact the most uh potentially having liquidated somewhere around 10 billion dollars worth of cryptocurrency which is pretty crazy to think about because cryptocurrencies didn't fall so terribly before this all happened uh and and so it's weird to me that if cryptocurrency like bitcoin fell from 62 000 to say like 60 000 all of a sudden we would see a trigger of like multiple liquidations and then liquidations upon liquidations it's possible that maybe people are highly leveraged up or they're highly uh exposed to derivative contracts like options and the cryptocurrency market which can like few even futures contracts which could substantially fluctuate in value but the point is there are reports that we may have seen somewhere around 10 billion dollars worth of liquidations which could have potentially been the reason for up to 360 billion dollars of cryptocurrency market cap literally evaporating which is also one of the weird things about markets that is when markets fall money can literally disappear like okay 10 billion people or 10 billion dollars got liquidated so sold because prices fell but that led to another 350 billion dollars disappearing just because of market dynamics it's kind of weird then people point to potential coinbase or a potential coinbase fallout because coinbase didn't go the way a lot of people expected it would uh and a lot more employees dumped shares than people expected maybe the entire cryptocurrency market is a little bit more unstable basically you've just got a ton of fear returning to the cryptocurrency markets and this is where we kind of transition over to the stock market and currencies like well cryptocurrencies together because when fear returns to both cryptocurrencies and the stock market one of the first things that people generally do is de-leverage if they can they try to do whatever they can to start minimizing margin and minimizing leverage this is a trend that we've talked about in a prior video in fact if you haven't seen it i encourage you to watch it just type in how long will the crash last because we're seeing a lot of crashes in specific sectors especially the spac sector so watch that video how long will the crash last especially at the same time as index funds kind of keep going up up up like the s p 500 nasdaq uh the dow jones right these guys are just going up and to the right but a lot of other sectors are in a lot of pain and so what really seems to be happening is if if the more we get fear whether it's again because of liquidations of over-leveraged people or treasury claims or countries banning cryptocurrencies or the coinbase fallout or drama in the spac market whatever there's a lot of fear right now cryptocurrencies and space lots of fear high tech or or high p e tech lots of fear right now anytime we see that we tend to get a deleveraging and that seems to be what we're seeing happening right now not just in crypto but also in stocks and this is a big red flag if you have a lot of leverage right now personally my portfolio sits at 21.1 percent margin i'm really excited to get this under 20 it's going to be a milestone for me and then i'm going to work to getting it under 10 because i just i've gotten to the point where i want to now scroll back my limit which usually my threshold for margin is 20 i don't want any more than 20 margin but i want to start dialing that pack to 10 anywho the big big big thing here is keep this in mind if we go through a massive period of deleveraging the pain that we're seeing in the markets could stay around longer and that's a downside when we're in a period of people paying off debt and deleveraging money that people make or businesses make or or whatever profits that come to people don't necessarily get reflected in share prices because people are taking new profits and they're using it to just pay down debt which remember paying down debt puts zero upward pressure on on the valuation of an underlying security whether that's something like cryptocurrency if we can call it a security currency whatever i'm not going to have that debate in this video or a stock so think about that for a moment if uh somebody has 50 000 of tesla shares but half of that is margin well when they go buy another ten thousand dollars of tesla shares on margin and they go to sixty thousand dollars of tesla shares but now thirty five thousand dollars of margin what have they done they've put upward price pressure on tesla's stock because they're a buyer of stock or a buyer of shares so they're taking shares out of the market which supply and demand means price goes up obviously not on this small scale it's not going to make a difference but the point is when somebody then instead says hey i've got an extra ten thousand dollars for my job or whatever and they decide to pay down their margin from 25k to 15k in that example what happens no price pressure on the stock and for anyone else like the next dude is like man these stocks have been trading sideways for a while or they just haven't been that good you know what i'm gonna sell to reduce my margin what happens again less price pressure on the stock if anything you've just created more selling pressure on the stock and prices go down so this period of deleveraging is not just something that we're going to see in crypto but it's also something we're seeing in stocks and it doesn't surprise me and to me i would not be shocked to see a very not only volatile but potentially sideways trading market over the next six months as we wait for uh inflation data to actually come in to show okay are we inflecting up and are we staying up because don't get me wrong we have inflation inflation's going up but is it going to stay up or is it going to inflect back down or is it going to accelerate to the upside to hyperinflation right we're going to be on standby for that it's potentially going to lead more people to want to pay off their margin in addition to that the more people pay off margin the less pressure we have on stocks and cryptos which mean values could come down or at least trade sideways so the big warning or the big bottom line of this whole video here is if you're exposed to leverage or you're expecting really really quick returns like we kind of had in 2020 you probably would be well served to consider reducing margin and i know that kind of exacerbates the problem that i'm talking about here but in fairness to all the people who watch and support my channel i just want to be upfront like that's probably what's happening and some part of that is probably very prudent to reduce that but in addition to reducing that debt it's also probably prudent to consider we're not going to see those crazy returns at least not yet they'll come and they'll come quick this is one of the reasons i don't want to sell but we might not see those crazy returns as quickly as we've been used to the big question is okay well does that mean we do we just sit around and stay in stocks or do we sell payoff debt and then buy back in when things turn around personally i don't like doing that because usually when the turnaround happens and all of a sudden spanx and cryptocurrencies and everything really starts rallying again usually it's too late when you're like oh it's starting to rally again it's like yeah well it just had its 30 or 40 rally or whatever right usually it gets too late so this is why generally i like to be in my stocks i like to be in my bitcoin or whatever positions that i'm in so that way when the run comes i'm ready but in the meantime i'm going to be patient i'm going to pay off margin if i've got margin paid down to levels i'm happy at i'm going to go shopping for some specific deals whether that's in sell-off periods in crypto or in specs or certain other stocks anyway sort of my thought here on a sunday here hopefully you found this helpful if you did consider liking and sharing and subscribing and folks we'll see in the next video by the way check out the programs down below for a ton of perspectives on building your wealth so if you want to learn all my perspectives for building your wealth with real estate investing stock investing managing your money property management sales or even making youtube videos check out the link down below and use that coupon code to the moon ] bye you
Comments 0