저자: MooreMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 2021년 3분기 알리바바 주식을 약 14만 주 추가 매수해 기존 16.5만 주에 더해 비중을 두 배 가까이 늘렸다는 내용이다. 진행자는 3분기 중국 리스크(규제, 코로나 확산 조치, 에버그란데 부동산 위기, 전력난)가 겹쳤음에도 멍거가 매수한 점을 짚고, 각 이슈에 대해 자신의 견해를 밝힌다. 규제는 기술산업 파괴보다 건전한 경쟁 촉진 목적으로 보이고, 코로나 확산은 단기 봉쇄 성격이며 백신·치료제 개선으로 장기 이슈는 아니라고 본다. 전력난은 석탄화력 풀가동과 석탄 증산·수입으로 2022년까지 번지지 않을 것으로 전망한다. 에버그란데 리스크는 기업 자체보다 중국 부동산 시장 구조 문제로 확산될 가능성이 있어 리먼 사태 같은 충격이 될 수 있다고 경고하며, 향후 3부작 시리즈를 예고한다. 버크셔 주주총회에서 멍거와 버핏이 중국 경제 체제 변화와 성장을 높이 평가하며, 향후 30년간 중국 기업이 늘어날 수 있으나 미국을 앞서지는 못할 것이라고 답한 내용도 소개된다. 마지막으로 최근 슈퍼 투자자들이 알리바바를 가장 많이 매수한 종목이었다는 점을 언급하고, 중국 경기 둔화 전망이 투자자 심리를 위축시키고 있다고 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
charlie monger just doubled down on alibaba in the third quarter of 2021 this despite the growing concerns of serious potential economic headwinds in china that's exactly what we're going to dive into in this video you're watching more money let's get it in the third quarter of 2021 charlie munger absolutely bought the dip and really doubled his position in alibaba by adding approximately 140 000 shares that's on top of his previously purchased 165 000 shares in the first quarter of 2021.
his timing could have been better as the shares really dipped in q3 and as you can see from here charlie being as active as he has been in 2021 is highly unusual as buying alibaba is his first market activity since reducing his costco position in 2014. now we gotta note that because charlie continues to be active with purchasing more and more shares of alibaba through the daily journal corporation it becomes increasingly more and more unlikely that berkshire hathaway will purchase the shares in the company this is more so because in my opinion charlie would not want to front run berkshire hathaway shareholders or even make it seem like that's happening now what's interesting is that in q3 lots of headwinds occurred in china which continue to surface which included headwinds from new regulations further covets spikes and their related measures to control the spread the evergrand real estate crisis and a power crisis gripping the country right now so the question is why would charlie munger faced with these issues choose to continue to purchase more shares in alibaba because yolo that's why my man's got diamond hands baby no just kidding honestly i think it's because he's looking at the issues independently in the same way that we have been on this channel when it comes to the new regulations they don't sound like regulations aimed at destroying the technology industry rather promoting healthy competition with the covet spikes they do need lockdowns in areas for the short term in areas that have experience to spike vaccines will continue to get better and therapeutics aimed at dealing with covet positive patients are already seeing huge progress so this covett issue i don't think it's long term look guys i believe that covet is endemic it will be in the population forever so really what we need is better therapeutics which are on the way with the power crisis the chinese government has already stated that they are going all hands on deck with firing up their coal-fired plants at or near full capacity and supplying them with necessary coal from both increased domestic production and additional imports so i'm not too concerned about the power crisis leaking into 2022.
finally with the evergrand situation i don't think the risk is really with evergren themselves but a more pervasive issue with the overall chinese real estate market could occur i'm not going to sugarcoat it an evergreen default and a collapse could be a lehman brothers moment and we will have to wait and see how this shakes out and if it has pervasive impacts there are structural problems with the chinese real estate market i will be going through those structural issues in a three-part series on the chinese real estate market on this channel stay tuned those videos are going to come out very soon there are monetary policy tools to deal with a potential real estate crisis but there could be absolutely devastating impacts despite that charlie has displayed that he remains bullish on the opportunity with his near-term double down in the shares but don't take it from me here's charlie munger and warren buffett discussing china at the berkshire hathaway shareholders meeting this question's for charlie it comes from steven tetter in atlanta he's been a berkshire shareholder for 10 years and says you and your your friend lee liu have been very optimistic with respect to investing opportunities in china byd has performed spectacularly for berkshire since its initial purchase in 2008 and is currently valued at 5.8 billion dollars the daily journal recently bought a large position in alibaba after founder jack ma had been reprimanded by the chinese communist party and ma's other company ant was not allowed to proceed with its ipo what are your current thoughts on china and whether the communist leaders will allow businesses with strong leadership to flourish in decades to come well i think that that the chinese government will allow businesses to flourish it was a one of the most remarkable things that ever happened in the history of the world when a bunch of committed communists just looked at the prosperity of places like singapore and said the hell with this we're not going to stay here in poverty we're going to copy what works and they changed communism they just accepted adam smith and added it to their communism and said now we have communism with chinese characteristics which is china with a free market with a bunch of billionaires and so forth and they made that shift they deserve a lot of credit warren and i are not quite as good at that as changing our minds in many cases and and that was a remarkable change coming from such a place and of course it's worked like gangbusters it had this enormous growth in the average income of the average chinese they've lifted 800 million people out of poverty fast and it there's never anything like the history of the world so my hat is off to the chinese and i think they will continue to allow people to make money they've learned it works the chinese i love what the guy said in the first place i don't care whether the cat is black and white as long as it catches mice that's my kind of talk in that list of the 20 most valuable companies that just three are chinese now if you if you're looking out 30 years you know mama do you think it'll be chinese my guess is more but uh but i don't think i don't think it'll top the united states uh but who knows it's it's amazing what what has been accomplished and and yeah really amazing and they found what works i mean there's nothing like finding something works in order to sort of reinforce ideas over time and we'll see what happens but i would bet there will be more than three but i will bet the united states has more than china has too now looks like it's not just charlie munger that's a bull on alibaba it looks like many super investors are ignoring the near-term headwinds and buying into the name you can see here that alibaba was the number one most purchased stock over the past two quarters by super investors now major economists are warning that expansion in china is expected to fall significantly which is spooking investors out of the chinese names i did a full analysis on those issues which you can get to right here and of course don't forget to smash that like button if you're new please consider subscribing to the channel i'll see you later
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