저자: MooreMoney · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 알리바바는 Munger의 지분 매도가 아니라 세금손실 상계용 조정으로 보이며, 애널리스트 목표가 기준 약 50% 상승 여력이 있어 강세 관점이다. 지분 공시: Munger는 알리바바 약 30만 주(약 3,400만 달러)를 보유 중이며 최근 거래 활동은 없다고 설명. 매도 배경 해석: 과거 Daily Journal 매도 보도 이후, 동일 보유분을 세금손실 실현 목적으로 처분한 후 잔여 지분을 유지한 것으로 추정. 이후 추가 매도가 없어 세금손실 매도 해석에 무게. 세금 구조: 캐나다 세법상 이전(deemed disposition)으로 손실을 실현해 다른 종목의 양도차익을 상쇄하는 방식을 소개. 미국 세법과는 차이가 있을 수 있음. 애널리스트 컨센서스: 대부분 매수 의견, 1년 목표가는 현재가 대비 약 50% 높음. 목표가는 통상 주가를 따라가므로 현재가 대비 괴리율이 핵심이라고 설명. 투자 논리: 알리바바는 저평가 상태이며 주당 300달러 가치 평가 대비 여력이 크다고 판단. 핵심 투자 동인은 클라우드보다 식료품(그로서리) 사업. 리스크 1 - 클라우드 경쟁: 정부 지원 국영 클라우드 업체 점유율이 2020년 13.8%에서 2021년 19.1%로 상승, 알리바바·텐센트 성장 둔화 우려. 리스크 2 - 부동산: 미완공 프로젝트에 대한 주택 구매자의 대출 상환 거부 확산, 은행감독당국의 대출 확대 약속에도 불구하고 부담 지속. 리스크 3 - 중국 제로 코로나 정책: 봉쇄 지속, 관광객 2,000명 이상 발이 묶인 사례 언급. 조작적 농담 섞인 설명. 촉매: 미국의 중국 관세 인하 검토가 알리익스프레스 등 수출 기업에 긍정적이라고 언급. 출연자 전망: 알리바바 1년 내 상승 여력 있다는 강세 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
a lot of people were saying that charlie munger was exiting from his china exposure by selling alibaba's shares i never really believed that but i didn't really know what the story was i was largely speculating on it however his recent disclosure with the sec largely tells us that he's not going anywhere and that's we're going gonna dive into this one because this is one that i was hoping to get as soon as possible and i actually saw the press release for charlie munger's disclosure to the fcc not that long ago and so i wanted to make this video right away so you can see here that charlie munger still holds 300 000 shares of alibaba at a price of 34 million dollars and under the recent activity column note that there has been no recent activity now charlie munger is one of those types of investors that largely sits and doesn't make that many moves and so prior to him buying or selling alibaba he didn't actually make any buys or sales in his portfolio for i would say maybe close to eight maybe seven or six years and so it's been a long time i'm definitely more active than charlie munger is but there's a reason why he's the goat and i'm not and you can see here that he largely completely sold his initial positions to what i believe is trigger a tax loss and is comfortable with owning 300 000 shares and i did something similar where i moved my shares from my taxable account to my non-taxable account which triggered a deemed disposition and thus a deemed loss and i was able to shelter a significant amount of capital gains on other securities while also holding on to my alibaba shares and so i did that back in december and so i understand why charlie munger would do that now the tax laws in the u.s are probably a little bit different and so there might be something specific to this that uh you know like the first shares it's kind of like a fifo type thing so like the cost of the loss of the first shares should trigger a larger loss because you can sort of use that cost as opposed to the blended cost whereas when i sort of transferred the shares i think i did it at the average cost or it was only one purchase so when i transferred it it was the cost but there might be a slight difference there between the canadian and u.s taxation rules but it looks like there might be sort of like a life full thing here so those are the last securities in and they're the first securities out type of thing and remember when charlie munger's daily journal ditch slash at stake in alibaba which was reported in april of this year there was a lot of speculation as to why this may have occurred did daily journal sell once charlie stepped down as chairman or did he convert his shares into hong kong listed shares or was it just tax loss selling and so you know we're never going to get the real answer but from my perspective based on the way that the cells went through and the fact that there wasn't a subsequent sale it really lends credence to the argument that this was tax loss selling and so that's kind of where i think that this story will effectively end is he just lowered his cost basis and was able to spread that tax loss onto gains of other securities that he may have potentially sold and note that wall street they largely maintain a virtually unanimous buy on the shares of alibaba at the current share price with the majority of analysts holding a strong buy on the security and the one-year price target this is what you should really be paying attention to is 50 greater than the current share price so the analyst community is predicting a substantial recovery over the one-year time horizon and note that the reason why the sell side analyst price targets typically follow the share price is because they have a one year time horizon so it's more important to pay attention to how much higher the current share price is as opposed to the target itself and a 50 higher price target than the current share price is very bullish but despite the fact that you have charlie munger's blessing and the blessing of all the analysts that cover it and i'm pretty sure pretty much every youtuber especially in the value investing community is all over this name like i'm ebola on alibaba as well i always do have to show you that there's huge risks with investing in china and there's three important risks that i got to show you one of them i don't think we've talked about a lot here note that alibaba is not a slam dunk and this is the first of the three major risks note that the government state-owned cloud companies are actually taking market share from the incumbents on alibaba and tencent so notice that their market share rose to 19.1 percent the state-backed companies in 2021 from 13.8 percent in 2020.
meanwhile growth at alibaba cloud and 10 cent is starting to slow so be very careful with that a lot of people are investing in alibaba because of the cloud opportunity but because the chinese government is favoring state-backed providers this might not be a boom that we expected could be for alibaba now the main reason why i'm investing in alibaba is the grocery business it's not necessarily the cloud business the cloud business is an added benefit but it's not the main reason for my thesis if i wanted to invest in cloud i'm looking at alphabet amazon and microsoft and note that there are still continuing growing risks in the property sector so this is the second risk out of the three because home buyers are now beginning to threaten mortgage payment boycotts for incomplete projects and notice that this article goes on to say that china's banking regulator has pledged to boost lending to help developers finish stalled property projects and boost buyers demand as growing mortgage boycotts by home buyers exacerbates the company's real estate woes and so effectively what's happening here is people paid upfront for these homes and the developers who are cash strapped have not been able to finish them and so the people are saying hey look if i'm not getting the product that i paid for i'm not paying the mortgage and so there's louder and louder voices of discontent of people that are not going to be paying their mortgages and in fact the ccp actually went on and did ccp things where they scrubbed social media of this discontent but it's gonna just continue to grow so long as these people don't have access to properties that they paid for so this could be some real pain on the horizon and note that the ccp remains committed so this is the third risk out of the three the ccp remains committed to zero coveted policies so if you're a tourist this is actually very good news for you because if you're looking to have an authentic chinese experience and get locked in place with zero notice this is the time to be touring china notice that bell high a seaside tour city in southern china has become the latest coveted hot spot the city locked down at least two districts including the popular wii zo island and its recrying residents in those areas to stay at home these restrictions have stranded over 2 000 tourists with the school summer break getting underway across china on monday so so once again a lot of us tour and want to get the authentic experience well if you want to get the authentic lockdown experience now's the time because they're not letting go of that zero covert policy but what does the overall valuation look like well i haven't changed a thing i still think that alibaba's trading at a fraction of its 300 per share evaluation so there's lots of room for it to run in my opinion now how do you get access to that alibaba model and the other models that you can get access to with the tracker well you can get access to all of those at the lower tier of the patreon and if you want access to an epic live presentation each month where i reserve my very best work for you can join me live on a zoom call and a big portion of the call is a q a session so you can actually ask me about your favorite securities now note that i just listed three reasons why you should be weary of investing in alibaba however there's one huge catalyst that recently got announced and not a lot of people are talking about it and that's the fact that the us is looking to lower tariffs imposed on china and that really helps exporters like aliexpress and so you can get access to that video because i did cover that right here
Comments 0