저자: MooreMoney · 외국인
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결론: 알파벳(구글)은 내재가치의 약 50~60% 수준에서 거래 중이며, 반독점 법안 리스크에도 저평가 매수 기회로 본다. 반독점 리스크: 초당적 법안(마이크 리·테드 크루즈·에이미 클로버샤·블루멘탈 상원의원 발의)은 연간 디지털 광고 거래 200억 달러 이상 기업이 광고 사업의 여러 단계를 동시에 운영하는 것을 금지하려 한다. 구글은 광고 거래소와 매수·매도 도구를 모두 운영해 이해충돌 비판을 받고 있다. 법안 전망: 반독점·빅테크 규제는 이념을 가로질러 지지를 받아 통과 가능성이 높다고 본다. 구글은 일부 애드센스 영역을 1차 가격 경매 모델로 옮겨야 하고, 대체 결제 시스템 시범 프로그램으로 자체 생태계 수익도 잠식될 수 있다. 다만 실제 영향은 아직 판단이 어려우며 추가 정보가 필요하다고 본다. 투자자 동향: 가치투자자와 슈퍼투자자들이 이 뉴스를 대수롭지 않게 보고 알파벳을 매수하고 있으며, 인플레이션 헤지로 적합하다는 시각이다. 밸류에이션: 검색(성장률 연 12.5%, 2026년까지), 유튜브 광고(연 20~30%), 구글 클라우드(연 25%)를 가정하고, 터미널 멀티플 22.5배를 적용해 주당 약 4,000달러 적정가치를 산출했다. 현재 주가는 약 2,200달러로 내재가치의 약 50~60%다. 종목 위치: 자신들의 추적 종목 중 주가가 내재가치의 50% 미만에 근접한 저평가 구간에 있다고 평가했다. 거시 리스크: 파월 연준 의장이 말한 금리 인상이 경기침체를 부를 수 있다는 견해에 동의한다. 홍보: 후원(패트레온) 하위 등급에서 추적 목록에 접근할 수 있으며, 체험 후 불만족 시 첫 달 환불을 약속했다.
다듬은 글
alphabet is one of the companies that's being most purchased by super investors and that's something that i do want to cover in this video so guys smash that like button and subscribe if you're new you're watching more money let's get it what's up guys and welcome back to the channel where the goal here is to help at least a thousand people achieve financial independence much sooner and let's dive right into this one because this one's a big one so you can see here that the information that i get from dadorama is in q1 of 2022 you can see that the top five names that were being purchased by super investors were facebook so meta platforms microsoft alphabet amazon and visa and alphabet is the one that i want to cover today i'll cover the other names in separate videos but you can see here that alphabet is actually potentially running into a tough situation because there is a bipartisan act right now which could lead to google sort of dividing up its advertising business and so it's being led by two republicans senator mike lee and ted cruz and two democrats senator amy klobuchar and senator richard blumenthal and so what exactly does that mean well you can see here the measure would prohibit corporations that handle more than 20 billion dollars in digital ad transactions yearly from engaging in more than one aspect of the digital advertising business so in other words google is involved in several stages of the digital ad ecosystem it hosts an auction exchange which offers the ability to sell and buy advertising and google is involved in several stages of the digital ad ecosystem you can see here that it actually operates on both sides it hosts an auction exchange where ads are purchased and it also offers tools to assist brands and agencies in selling and buying advertising and so critics for years have said that google has an unfair advantage in both running the exchange as well as serving as both buyer and seller of advertising and it could use its power to manipulate the ad market to its advantage which of course google denies but they face difficulty improving and so the question is will this legislation actually go through and you can see here the support for the anti-trust reform terrain and tech dominance extends across ideological lines which means that it'll probably go through because that means it'll probably become bipartisan and that's what we're seeing here and so google's growth strategy has to now constantly factor in that they're going to have to move into a first price auction model for some of their adsense category and the other thing that google is doing is that it's piloting a program for alternative payment methods that would allow some apps to bypass the existing payment systems which of course means that it undercuts google's own ecosystem but what impact does this have exactly on alphabet's business it's hard to tell right now i think more information is required before this comes out so i think what's happening is a lot of value investors or super investors are looking at this news and saying it's a nothing burger at least right now and they're buying into alphabet because they think it's a cheap business that's a good inflation hedge and it's great to own it at approximately 50 of its intrinsic value but how do i get to that intrinsic value well you can see here that alphabet owns a leading position with a wide mode in three major businesses so google search it's still growing at good rates i'm growing this thing out at 12.5 percent out through 2026.
youtube ads you can see that i'm growing in between 20 and 30 percent going out to 2026 and google cloud which is their growing and emerging business you can see that i'm growing that out at 25 into 2026. so google has a ton of businesses that are still growing at good rates in industry leading wide moat positions and so what does that mean for the valuation well you can see here with a terminal multiple of just 22.5 times whereas their average multiple has been close to 30 times earnings i'm getting to a valuation of just under four thousand dollars per share and the current market share is approximately twenty two hundred bucks a share meaning that this company is trading at approximately fifty percent of its intrinsic value i guess they're closer to 60 but you see what i mean and where does google stack up on the companies that we're following or on the tracker that the patreon is going to have access to well you can see that google is in that beige area where the price is uh getting closer to less than 50 of its intrinsic value so in other words alphabet or google however whatever you want to call it is closing in on becoming one of the cheaper opportunities in the universe of securities that we're following and if you want access to the tracker that the patreons get access to you can access that at the lower tier of the patreon membership level and like i always say if you decide to try it out and it's not for you don't just cancel it message me in the patreon to let me know that you tried it and it wasn't for you and i'll fully refund your first month's description because that's how much i believe in the effort and hard work that's going into these models and how much value i believe that they produce and with that said i do believe that jerome powell is right that these interest rate increases could lead us into a recession and i go into that in this video right here
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