저자: MooreMoney · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 미·중이 전쟁 직전이라고 보지만, 진행자는 경제적 상호의존 때문에 결국 냉각될 것이라며 과도한 긴장은 과장이라고 본다. 알리바바 주가: 최근 100달러 위에서 80달러 초반까지 하락, 진행자는 80달러가 바닥이라고 보지 않으며 하방 리스크 관리를 강조. 본인 물타기 평단은 70달러, 추가 매수 고려 구간은 50~60달러대. 미·중 갈등 요인: 대만 독립 지지 시 중국의 전쟁 행위 간주, 대만 해협 중국 군용기·함정 시험 비행, 러시아 관련 중국의 무기 지원 논쟁, 상호 제재 가능성 등이 언급됨. 진행자는 중국이 대만 무력 점령을 원하지 않는다고 봄. 달리오 입장 변화: 이후 더 큰 도발은 미국 쪽에서 나올 것이며 중국은 향후 3년간 자제할 것으로 보아, 즉각적 전쟁 가능성은 낮다는 취지로 완화된 해석. 종목 영향: 마이크론(중국 매출 약 25%)은 제재 리스크 언급, 애플·캐나다구스·테슬라 등 중국 노출 기업 거론. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 미·중 모두 경제적 손실이 커 결국 냉각될 것이라 전망. 유료 회원제(패트리온) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Ray value is just stated that the U.S and China are on the brink of war and so that's what I want to dive into in this video and so guys as you smash that like button let me run that intro what's up guys and welcome back to the channel now while I was away recovering from covid I actually noticed that alibaba's shares actually started to decline significantly and they're now back down to the low 80 per share level after they you know went up past 100 per share on the news that Alibaba was going to be committing uh or entering into uh some spin-offs you know presumably I think the first spin-off was going to be the senyao business now I don't exactly know what the plans for that are they have been a little bit ambiguous and so they're going to have to provide us with more details however it looks like the overall sentiment on China is now uh hitting a new low as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh and it might be difficult for that particular IPO or any other spin-off activity to pick up momentum in such an environment which was said by Marvin Chen who's an analyst over at Bloomberg and so you know Alibaba stock May remain volatile but effectively what they're saying is that downside risk might actually be limit it as valuations approach single digits again however you know I would say that the eighty dollar per share region is not necessarily a bottom I mean it very rarely goes under eighty dollars per share but essentially what I would say is that continue to focus on downside risk it's not advice it never is but like when I think about uh the downside risk you know when it comes to sort of like my portfolio My Double Down was at a net purchase price of seventy dollars per share and so if I'm looking to double down again I'm looking at something in the 60s maybe even in the 50s and you know if that becomes available and in the next video I will go through the options with you and show you exactly what we're seeing right now in this environment and so you can see that the continuing unease may actually be what's driving Alibaba share price down and again it's another reason why we should always be focusing on downside risk and so with that said Ray dalio he actually releases these um thoughts I guess on LinkedIn so uh just yesterday he released what his thoughts are on the china-u.s relations what their relations are with other countries and you know what's going on in China and what I really want to focus on is what he thinks is going on with the Chinese and U.S relations and here's where it gets a little bit interesting so he's saying that the United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk now I disagree however um you know I do have to acknowledge that you know Ray dalio is much older than me much more experienced way smarter than I am so he's seeing things that I'm just not capable of seeing potentially and so this is what he's saying they are close to having a sanctions war and or military war that neither side wants but many believe will probably happen and so first of all I agree with this and so essentially he's saying this will probably happen because each side is very close to the other's red lines each side is using brinksmanship to push the other at the risk of Crossing each other's red lines and politics will probably cause more aggressive brinksmanship over the next 18 years and so essentially one that he's saying is that he wants to emphasize that by saying that they're on the brink doesn't necessarily mean that they will go over the brink but essentially what he's saying is that they are closer to war than they have been before now the one thing that I will acknowledge here is that there's just been more tension in the Taiwan region than there has been in many many years and so I could understand why you would say that I would say that one of the US's red lines would be further aggression in the Taiwan region but the other thing is I don't think China really wants to militarily take over Taiwan I think that makes it very difficult to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people I think you just sort of continue with the status quo I think that's the best uh course of action for the Chinese people but we'll see how this plays out now speaking of the red lines Ray Daly actually lists what he believes are some of the red lines a well-known Chinese red line is that the United States or Taiwan coming out in favor of Taiwanese Independence and Ray Dalia says that that would be considered an act of War by China and I I agree with that the second red line that he points out is that Chinese military planes and ships are testing previously established red lines and that's that whole China doing War training or whatever with their planes over Taiwanese airspace or whatever that's been going on in that region that's essentially what he's saying it sort of like pushes the U.S to sort of like almost want to retaliate I think they did push a warship into that region as well and so you know you're getting closer to a potential conflict there and I I agree with Ray dalio's perspective there the next Red Line that he goes on to describe is China's dealings with Russia which are leading the U.S and China to probe each other's red lines in this relationship and here's an interesting point that he brings up there is a debate in China about why it's acceptable for NATO to provide lethal military equipment to Ukraine but but not have China do the same for Russia so that's a very interesting point I would argue that it's because Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is not the one trying to take over Russia and so you're helping a smaller country defend itself from a larger bullion so that's where I would say that this is not necessarily a fair point and um that would be my rebuttal to this and so you know the next Red Line is of course economic sanctions China is considering reciprocating with its own sanctions against an American company because you know the U.S cutting off China's access to essential chips is you know pushing them behind and so you know if you are an investor in Micron you could potentially be facing some sanctions we'll see what happens with that company drives around 25 percent of its revenue from China and Hong Kong but I would say you know virtually all manufacturing organizations including you know Teslas or whatever they all have relationships in China and so you know do further sanctions impact all of these companies you know Apple is very lever to China one of my positions Canada goose is looking to grow in that region and so what happens to their growth prospects that whole investment thesis goes away if there's not a Chinese growth option there but once again I don't think that China would want to step on their own GDP or own economy to sort of like send a message so but we'll see how this sort of plays out I just may not be interpreting it correctly because you know does the economy really matter if you're coming up against a potential military threat you know what I mean and so they might be looking at it completely different now regalio goes on to say that most of these conflicts are likely to intensify over the next 18 months U.S China relations are getting so bad that there is a reason to worry that anti-china sentiment could make doing business with China like doing business with Russia that's where like I would push back like I think China has a lot to lose in this situation as well and so I would think that they would be sort of like restrained in any sort of like retaliatory efforts as well and so that you know there would be a minimum cause severe economic consequences for the U.S China and the world and you know I've said this on this channel many times both China and the US cannot afford to not do business with one another and my thoughts are that cooler heads will eventually Prevail now I might just be wishfully thinking here but that's the way I'm thinking about it now here's something interesting here's where I think radialio walks back his brink of War comments now I might be misinterpreting this so you guys let me know in the comments but this is what he's saying all things considered I think that the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side not the Chinese which is very interesting I don't believe the Chinese reactions to provocations will be strong enough to prompt a war in the near future I.E the next three years years because the Chinese don't want to go to war I expect the Chinese side to be very restrained for the time being and so if that's the case I don't think it's the US that's going to try and start a war with China and so you know I I I this sort of sounds like he's walking back the fact that they're on the brink of war and so you know I might be misinterpreting that but you guys let me know now it was said to him a number of times that when he was in China they believed that some Americans are trying to bait them into a trap war that they want to avoid if I saw more aggressive moves especially if unprovoked from China I'd be more concerned and so overall I stick to my whole uh original thesis and you know what I've been saying on this channel for a long time I think there's a lot of saber rattling but both of these countries you know they know that they have to be friends because they work together so deeply and so there would be severe economic consequences for both of them which we all know I'm not telling you anything that you don't know but it just doesn't sound right that that they would both want to blow up their economies and you know their countries and have political instability Etc as a result of continuing on a path of aggression so we'll see how this plays out but you know one thing a lot of you guys say that watch my videos is that you will never invest in China and I totally get it and so I got something for you the patreons have full access to this track or schedule and what happens is that if you click into any one of these tickers I've grayed out the other ones but you can actually get to a full model for the particular company now Alibaba might not be the one for you because you know it's a Chinese listed name however there are many other names some of the most important American companies for example alphabets on this list Tesla's on this list Microsoft's on this list Starbucks is here as well so you can click into the models for any of those companies and you know you get an idea of where they're trading at I provide my perspective on what their intrinsic value is and you know the model automatically computes their share price as a percentage of intrinsic value you might have a different intrinsic value however taking a look at the way that I model it might help you in the way that you model it and so the patreons get access to this whole tracker and all of the company models that come with it and you can get access to all of that at the lower tier at just five dollars a month and there's over 200 people who've currently joined now some of the people have actually joined on the higher tier and the higher T I believe is the best value where you get a monthly live call where I talk about sort of like the economy the stock market and where I think things are going then there's special live courses every month and there's also I'm building out what's called a comps schedule right now I have 63 of the regional Banks analyzed using nine key performance uh metrics and then I'm going to be adding 20 more major U.S banks to this as well so at the end of the day I'm gonna try and get the bank's analysis up to a hundred Banks using key performance indicators and then I'm going to add to this I'm going to try to add insurance companies Etc schedule for many different Industries and so if you're interested I would encourage you to try and join us at the patreon now the other thing that I do want to point out is that the best value on this channel is the Q a series and so if you haven't seen any of the videos for the Q a series I find them very informative and very helpful and essentially what I'm doing is I'm answering some of the hardest questions that you guys ask and so if you haven't seen it the link to the whole q a series is right here
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