저자: MooreMoney · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔 해서웨이가 Liberty Media의 SiriusXM 트래킹 주식을 약 2억 달러어치 매수한 것은 Liberty-SiriusXM 통합 거래에서의 차익거래로 해석된다. 발표자는 통합 시 LSXMK 1주당 SiriusXM 8.4주를 받는 구조에서 약 41% 차익 여지가 있다고 봤지만, SiriusXM 부채 부담을 감안하면 기업가치가 주당 약 22.83달러 수준이며 현재 주가 48.1달러는 부채를 무시한 것이라고 주장한다. 구독자 감소와 고령 청취층 의존도 우려를 제기하며 본인은 참여하지 않겠다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
birkshire haway has entered into a new Arbitrage opportunity and so the question is after their successful Arbitrage opportunity in Activision is this another one that we should potentially be following them into and so that's what I want to discuss in this video and this is what I'm talking about so recently Liberty Media and SiriusXM announced a transaction where they're going to simplify the ownership structure of SiriusXM because Liberty Media owns a ton of the shares that serus of Sirius XM and so they eff trade on two kickers and so what's going to happen is you're going to get rid of these Liberty media tracking Securities this lxm LX SMB and LX lsxmk these sound like car badges um and they're going to switch it all over to a new ticker symbol which is uh going to be called Series so what where is the Arbitrage opportunity well the Arbitrage opportunity is in the fact that Sirius XM has their own shares of trade on the uh stock exchanges and they're trading at a certain price whereas the Liberty media tracking securities also trade on the stock exchange but they trade at a lower price so you could potentially have an Arbitrage opportunity if you purchase these Securities and then everything gets transferred over into a new ticker symbol under Siri and it trades at the current share price that Siri is trading at and so where does Burkshire come into all of this well birkar hathway purchased 2.8 million shares of the tracking Securities and effectively they're looking to capitalize on the discount relative to the value of the stake in SiriusXM and you can see that birkshire as of January 5th of this year holds around 66.2 million shares of the tracking stock which is valued at $2 billion so this isn't a small Arbitrage and Buffett is gener generally involved with such large purchases I know that people were saying uh last year that he wasn't involved in the Activision Arbitrage but then of course in the annual general meeting you could see that he absolutely was involved in it um as he was talking about it but this stake in the tracker is worth about 20% of the The Trackers in general so you know Burkshire is in with $2 billion on this potential opportunity and so here is a slide from our monthly call where I talked about this to the uh um patreon subscribers on the call tier and effectively what I'm saying is that the uh Liberty serus tracking stocks own around 83% of Siri and there of course there's a deal to merge these two where Liberty holders will get 8.4 shares of Siri for each share of Liberty that they own so effectively you can buy lsxmk for $308 as of the time of the um uh preparation of this and you would receive 8.4 shares of Siri which are effectively valued at 4343 so it would give you a 41 a potential 41% return on this Arbitrage but the problem is is that you in order for this to make sense you have to assume that series Shares are worth uh$ 4343 or 8.4 series Shares are worth $43.40 and so in order to really partake in this Arbitrage opportunity or potential Arbitrage opportunity you really have to have a view on the valuation of series shares and here's where I would respectfully uh disagree with uh uh Warren Buffett or Brookshire Hathway's opinion on this I I built out the Siri model and I believe that they have too much debt to be worth anything more than around $280 per share and so really what I'm saying is the company's Valu at around $5 per share but when you penalize them with the debt burden they're worth around $22.83 now the current share price is $481 so really what's happening is that the investors are ignoring the debt on the balance sheet which is completely fine for them to do it's their prerogative It's just not how I personally invest in Securities but you can see that the company is trading at 15.5 times what I think that they're going to earn in 2024 so it is relatively fairly valued um if you ignore the debt I'm just not willing to ignore the debt and of course the other part is I call in to question the sustainability of the Siri business model because you can see that they had a roaring number of subscribers up until uh just before the pandemic and now they're declining and so you know they're really having difficulties uh growing your subscriber base and largely the subscriber base for uh Sirus XM Radio is an older crowd and so is this crowd aging out I'm not sure um but it just doesn't look like it's resonating with the younger audience and so this is one where I do feel that birkshire haway will make money on but this is not one that I'm willing to participate in so I want to know from you guys is this something that you're interested in is this something that you're going to partake in or have you already done so let me know in the comments below and of course if you want to see my full model on Siri you can get access to that at the lower tier of the patreon where you get access to all my models if you don't find any value from the patreon just let me know within the first month then I'll completely refund your first month subscription because the last thing I want to do is take any money from anyone who doesn't find any value and so I'll leave it there for you guys but I what I want to know is if you guys are participating in this Arbitrage or potential Arbitrage opportunity let me know in the comments below and we'll leave it there see you later
Comments 0