저자: MooreMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 반도체 산업 비판 발언을 소개하며, 진행자는 TSM의 강점은 인정하지만 본인은 투자하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 멍거 발언: 반도체는 매 세대마다 번 돈을 전부 재투자해야 하는 '의무적 투자' 산업이라 싫어한다고 말함. 버크셔처럼 잉여현금이 많이 남는 사업을 선호한다는 취지. TSM 재무 분석: 영업현금흐름 약 400억 달러 중 약 300억 달러를 재투자하는 구조. 매출·순이익·CAPEX 모두 증가 추세이며, FCF/매출 비율은 평균 약 20% 수준으로 제시됨. 진행자 시각: 인텔처럼 재투자에 뒤처지면 몰락할 수 있다는 점을 우려하나, TSM은 파운드리 특화로 지속 가능한 경쟁우위가 있다고 평가. 성장 전망: 진행자 예상 매출 성장률 2028년까지 연 약 15%, 이후 약 7.5%. 순이익은 2023년 약 290억 달러에서 2032년 약 670~680억 달러로 증가할 것으로 봄. 지정학 리스크: 중국·미국 간 긴장이 우려되나 진행자는 '이성적 해법'이 나올 것이라고 낙관. 미국 CHIPS법: 인텔 오하이오 공장 등 보조는 긍정적이나 현재는 보조금이 아닌 대출 성격이라 한계가 있다는 멍거 견해를 소개. 결론: 진행자 본인은 반도체 전문성이 부족해 투자하지 않을 것이라고 밝힘. 멍거 역시 본인 전문성 밖이라고 언급. 채널 안내: 유료 멤버십(모델 접근, 월간 라이브 콜) 홍보 및 커버드콜 관련 영상 소개.
다듬은 글
we're hot off the heels of the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting and there were a lot of gems that were dropped by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger however one gem that is being missed right now is something that Charlie Munger dropped at the Westco annual general meeting when he was speaking about investing in the semiconductor industry so that's what I want to talk about in this video and so guys as you smash that like button let me run that intro what's up guys and welcome back to the channel now a couple of months ago I put out a video on Taiwan semiconductor I was actually looking at investing in the company however I was kind of thinking about reasons why I shouldn't be investing in the chip space and you know the obvious reason is that I'm just not as experienced in the chip space in general but one of the things that I learned as I learned more and more about the chip spaces I found that if you look at the cash flow statement all of the money that these guys are generating they're just reinvesting it right back into the business and my question is how much of that is just to stay ahead of the game and how much of that is maintenance cap I don't really know I'm assuming that it's all capex but what it really told me is that this might be a business that doesn't have a lot of excess Capital that it can spit off for other things and you know that's something that Charlie Munger actually spoke about at the Westco annual general meeting and so without further Ado let's go to exactly what Charlie had to say about investing in the semiconductor industry and keep from Cupertino California writes in and this is in the same vein but a little more focused how should we think about the political political climate around Taiwan and the long-term impact on the semiconductor industry specifically do you see the chips and the science of the chips and science act favorably the semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry and the semiconductor industry you have to take all the money you've made and and with each new generation of chips you throw in all the money you previously made so it's compulsory investment of everything if you want to stay in the game naturally I hate a business like that at Berkshire we like a whole lot of surplus money to come in we can do something else with and of course now if you're enough ahead of it like Taiwan semiconductor is that may be a good buy at these prices I I I it's not at all clear to me that that that are going to succeed mightily but it's a it's a difficult it's a bit of an enormous promise for the big winner but it's a difficult business in requiring everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money and so it's not perfect that semiconductor business and here's what Charlie Munger was talking about in action so you can see that exactly happening with Taiwan semiconductor this is their cash flow statement and you can see there as their revenues have increased you don't see the revenues here but you do see the net income increasing so of course if the net income is increasing obviously that revenue is increasing you know notice that so have their Capital expenditures increased at a substantial rate as well and their free cash flow as a percentage of Revenue averages in that sort of like 20 area obviously higher uh in the last five year area five years maybe it might come down as the economy enters a recession I'm not really sure I would say probably average is higher than the 20.
but notice that they'll make like in 2021 40 billion dollars in cash flow from operation then they're reinvesting 30 billion dollars right back into the business now a part of this is or a big part of this is the fact that you know there's just an insatiable demand for chips and so they uh are reinvesting because they are increasing the returns for the business the problem I have however is that I'm not smart enough to understand uh how much of this is going to give them future sustainable growth and really what I'm thinking and what I'm seeing from these financials is that this is an industry where you continuously have to reinvest to stay ahead of the game otherwise you turn into something like Intel where you actually end up falling behind and so that's kind of what I'm concerned about investing in uh the chip space in general But ultimately TSM is the best company in the world in terms of a Foundry uh you know just a company specifically focused on being The Foundry and that is an absolute sustainable competitive Advantage I would just say that I'm personally not smart enough to invest in this business and you know that's not something that I haven't already said on the channel I've been saying it a lot but you know I'll continue to say it and you can see from Taiwan semiconductors p l that the comp Company still has exceptional value as they're expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years so here's what I'm forecasting their growth to be um you know they're going to be powering the cloudification of businesses the AI Revolution as well and I think you know geopolitical risk is a concern for this name but ultimately I don't think that there's going to be significant geopolitical issues now I know Warren Buffett was asked about this and he uh kind of like danced around the question but I'll you know if if you were to ask me I would say that I think cooler heads will prevail uh between China and the U.S but you know ultimately you know between 15 of your growth into 2028 and then a seventh and a half percent growth thereafter I think this is being a little bit pessimistic and yet their net income is still substantially increasing from uh what I think would be around 29 billion dollars in 2023 to 67 or 68 billion dollars in 2032 so you know there's a long runway for growth and I think a lot of people are going to make money uh in this name even if I'm one of the people that are gonna stay on the sidelines here now another thing that Charlie Munger was asked her what are his thoughts about the uh chips act that was passed in the U.S and how will that benefit companies like Taiwan semiconductor here's what Charlie had to say but I remember when Intel owned the world intel was once the Taiwan semiconductor business of the world yeah they invented the damn business and they dominated it for decades and and until it's not clear to me that Immortal Intel is going to have a very decent semiconductor business getting as far behind as they are now it's my answer is it's not so damn foolproof as it looked even with the incentives to build plants here in the United States it's like Intel is doing in Ohio well of course that will really help but they're borrowing the money there's no indication the government is going to forgive the loans or something it's it's not like the recent loans to business where they said we'll loan you the money then then it was aware heck go keep the money the government is not planning to do that with these new semiconductor loans look it's it's it's not a field where I feel I have a lot of expertise what the hell do I know about semiconductors do you worry about any conditions that the government would put on companies that end up using any of that money with semiconductors or anything else well of course all of that it's deeply intertwined with government policies of both China and the United States so I would rather have something that's more foolproof myself but I do think Taiwan semiconductor is the strongest selling conductor company on Earth so I am a I'm a big admirer of what they've achieved it's just incredible of what they've achieved speaking of things you like better and by the way maybe a wonderful investment the fact that I don't like it because I'm an old man and I don't like learning new tricks that doesn't mean it isn't right for some younger person that understands it better than I do now it's always great to hear from Charlie and his thoughts however I did show you guys the model for Taiwan semiconductor and if you want access to that model you can get access to it at this lower tier and if you want to join us for a live monthly call you can join us at this higher tier join over 200 patreons that are supporting this Channel and I recently released a video about writing covered calls and how they can actually reduce risk for your portfolio overall and if you've missed that video you can actually get access to that video right here
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