저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거가 2021년 1분기 알리바바(BABA)를 처음 매수했고 3분기에 대폭 추가 매수한 사실을 근거로, 영상은 알리바바가 저평가 상태이며 추가 매수 여지가 있다고 본다. 매수 근거: 멍거의 1분기 매수가는 대략 220~230달러, 3분기 추가 매수는 대략 140~180달러 구간으로 추정된다. 진행자는 평균 단가를 약 200달러 전후로 본다. 멍거 철학 인용: 우량 기업을 합리적 가격에 사는 것이 중요하며, 저평가된 '잘못 가격 매겨진 도박'에 투자하라는 가치투자 원칙을 강조한다. 중국 경제 전망: 멍거는 중국 경제와 기술주에 여전히 강세적이며, 미국·캐나다 밸류에이션이 극단적으로 높은 반면 중국 기술주는 상대적으로 싸다고 본다. 단기 촉매: 12월 16~17일 예정된 알리바바 투자자의 날(Investor Day)이 주가 상승 촉매가 될 수 있다고 언급한다. 추가 촉매: 중국 기업 IPO 가능성을 언급하지만 확실하지 않다고 본다. 리스크: 영상에서 구체적 리스크 논의는 거의 없다. 결론: 알리바바는 중국 이커머스 1위 기업이며, 중국 경제 성장이 이어지는 한 인내심을 갖고 기다리면 성과가 날 것이라는 입장이다. 진행자는 시청자에게 매수·보유·매도 의견을 묻는다.
다듬은 글
alibaba was charlie munger right purchasing alibaba should you still buy more do you think his decision was correct and let's get into it because a lot of people are still clowning charlie monger saying he made the wrong decision he's bad for investing in alibaba blah blah blah they're saying all of that good stuff so let's get into it and please guys can you like this video subscribe to my channel click the subscribe button down below man i'll be prodding you guys with so much new content all the time so please like and subscribe thank you guys remember charlie munger bought alibaba in q1 2021 that was his first purchase and it was it was a huge buy it sent shockwaves all throughout the stock market people went crazy making videos about it and rightfully so because remember charlie munger does not make purchases frequently like he barely touches his portfolio so that changed nineteen percent of his portfolio he bought 165 000 shares and then in q3 2021 he added way more he upped it 82 man so he made it at least a 20 percent holding in his portfolio and remember charlie munger does not make many bets so we're going to get into it see if he made the right decision the wrong decision and we have to put this in his philosophy how he thinks about this purchase because we're gonna get into some quotes as well right so he bought into alibaba remember it was q1 2021 so that's around january to around march so we have january until march so like look at this he could have bought it at 258 he could have bought it at like like 237 224 220 like so around march april that's when he probably bought it so i'm to give him around 230 to 220 at least into that range right i'm going to give him 220 right so let's say he bought it at around 230 220 and then the next time he doubled down he added a lot more was q3 and we know that q3 is from around july to september so like so when do you think he added again he added again probably around 195 probably around 157 140 maybe if he bottom ticked it which i highly doubt he he bought him ticked that like 145 doubt it he probably got like a 170 180 around that mark so i'm gonna guess his cost basis is around 200 maybe a little bit lower but yeah you we that's still a cheap price for alibaba that price right there is actually like literally perfect for charlie if you actually understand his philosophy and how we invest and we're going to get into that but i honestly think that maybe we could see another purchase of alibaba like would that surprise you if he doubled down again with alibaba since since like he's already so convinced that alibaba is at a cheap price around 200 180 like why wouldn't he invest more at 140 because that's how he thinks that's how we invest so let's get into some charlie munger quotes so munger's investment strategy is very boring keeping a cool head and investing in high quality businesses with long histories of rewarding shareholders may not be exciting but will generate solid returns over time with less risk than investing in the next big thing monger seeks opportunities that is attractive when adjusted for risk in other words he's looking for mispriced gambles you're looking for a mispriced gamble that's what investing is and you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced that is value investing that's value investing 101 we know that charlie sees an amazing price for alibaba because he already bought it at around 200 220 initially and it's selling at 140 so we know 140 is severely undervalued and if you bought it at 220 he thinks it's probably going up to 300 400 so you know this is a miss price gamble 101 and he sees this as a like not like a mispriced gamble plus a good risk to reward ratio the opportunities for monger looks for great businesses trading at a discount to fair value a great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price alibaba is the most dominant company in the market in china right now and it's still going to succeed as long as the chinese economy grows tabat and team all are still the most dominant companies especially in the e-commerce sphere and we understand that the chinese e-commerce market is still growing once an investor finds a great business it's important to be willing to give it time to charlie monger patience is virtue the big money is not in buying or selling but in waiting and that's the key right now alibaba you have to be patiently waiting for the success of the business to take its turn and we also gotta view it how does charlie view the chinese economy what does he say about the chinese economy so charlie munger is still super bullish on the chinese economy he understand that the chinese tech is actually cheaper than the us tech right now and actually the whole market the us and canadian valuations are skyrocketing right now they're at extreme highs and actually the chinese tech companies are under value right now so what are gonna provide the better returns moving forward so guys we're looking at two major catalysts for alibaba coming up and hopefully they do come up we don't know but remember we still have the investor day what alibaba going to invest in december 16th december 17th that could be a huge catalyst for alibaba and then what about an ipo is there a future for that for alibaba maybe maybe not who knows but that could have huge potential for the stock if that does happen or we can just wait for the next ordinance report alibaba captures recaptures this dominant position and keeps it running so guys tell me what you think about alibaba is alibaba still buy a cell a hold what are you thinking with alibaba
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