저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
JD.com이 중국 우려로 한 달간 약 70% 급락했으나 사업은 성장 중(매출·광고·쇼핑 빈도 증가, 영업이익률 회복, 자사주 매입·배당 포함 약 6% 현금 환원)이라 주장. 현재 PE 약 13배, 잉여현금흐름 성장률 6~7% 가정 DCF로 적정가 약 80달러 제시하며 미래 주가 127달러(약 34% 상승 여지)로 강세 전망. 하워드 막스·마이클 버리 등의 매수도 근거로 언급.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome back to just invest today and in today's video we're going to talk about jd.com why it should be worth around $120 to like $130 a share you can see the top investors buying heavily into jd.com we got Howard marks we got David terer we got the legendary Michael bur all buying into jd.com for a specific reason guys it's so undervalued at this point people are overlooking everything that's going on with jd.com the growth that's accelerating the margins are improving again they're buying back shares guys this stock is definitely worth 125 plus a share in the next 5 years you have to understand what jd.com is actually presenting to us and why I still think it's not a value trap they're actually proving that jd.com is still sufficient with the results that they just released in q1 so guys let's get into it right now so if you haven't been living under a rock j.com right now is going through a massive selloff the one month chart 70% down guys there's been no additional news or negative news coming at dd.com so why is this huge dip happening it's all about the market participants everyone just hates China at this point this is why you just have to allow everyone just to sell off j.com and just ignore the news and the main reason why people are going to say oh jd.com is in China blah blah blah we hear the same thing with alib baba but on the opposite side you see Apple at alltime highs we see TSM at alltime highs guys they get a lot of revenue from China we have apple getting around 20 to 30% of the revenue from China we have TSM if if China invades TSM what do you think is going to happen with TSM they say they have like some kind of thing to like just shut off the whole TSM system so what do you think is going to happen with the company it can go to zero that quickly so if we have stocks like that trading at alltime highs why is people worried about jd.com and Alibaba in 10cent it doesn't make sense so guys just ignore all this fake negative news we had jd.com growing 7% quarter over quarter so like it it just doesn't make sense how people can say that this is a dying company is a value trap Over The Last 5 Years Revenue grew 19% we have net product revenues growing around 16% in the last 5 years we have net service Revenue growing around 36% year-over-year we can just see that the momentum for jd.com is still growing so we can understand why people like Howard Marg David terer and Michael bur are still bullish on this company because they see growth while the company is buying back shares issuing a dividend still trading on the low PE around 13 and this is also what we love to see because they're actually improving their business by their margins we saw that operating income was at 5.2% in 2023 Q3 it dipped to 2.6% now it's back up to 4.1% so you can see the margins improving guys cash growth is still climbing man from 2023 up into 2024 q1 trailing 12 months 50.6 billion R&B and this goes into like7 billion dollar of USD so that's $7 billion of cash flow off of a $46 billion market cap company so that's around like a 15% yield so what are we seeing we're seeing a company that's giving us a dividend around 3% buying back shares around 3% so that's a 6% of just cash returns to us as shareholders while we wait for this huge explosion plus they growing free cash flow I'm projecting cash flow growth around 6 to 7% I think it might be more but that's going to be my conservative view in my opinion now let's go into the actual business and see if jd.com is improving because a lot of people still have jd.com as a value trap the business is declining it's losing market share blah blah blah let's get into the last quarter's earning call and let's see what management is saying about jd.com business I really want to show you what management is saying just to prove that JD 's business is actually improving I can have some certainty that jd.com business is going to keep growing in the next 5 Years cuz that's what we're looking for when I end off with this DCF model so q1 2024 results we kicked off this year with encouraging momentum in q1 our Topline growth accelerated in market share expanded while our bottom line trended healthily in the quarter after spending the past year on the strengthening our procurement capabilities and upgrading fulfillment Network and operating efficiency our Supermarket Cate recorded double digit gmv and revenue growth in q1 with increased order volume and shopping frequency we expect supermarkets momentum to continue throughout the rest of the year and it will remain an important driver in the long run with massive Tam super key as to user Behavior shopping frequency on our platform delivered a substantial double digigit year-on-year growth in q1 more than offsetting the decrease in average order value as a result of our low price offerings this led to a relatively able arpu in q1 compared to the same period last year in addition driven by our expanding user based and shopping frequency our order volume continue to increase at Double digigit rate year onye in q1 a pace we have seen for three consecutive quarters so this business is continuing to grow seeing healthy shopping frequency both our 3p user based and 3p order volume continue to grow at a faster Pace in q1 compared to the previous quarters our Marketplace and marketing revenues return to positive growth in q1 as we navigated oneoff impacts in the past quarter this is primly driven by the growth in our advertising revenues while commissions remain soft due to our strategy to prioritize ecosystem development over monetization at the current stage so if you look at the results of jd.com how is this business losing market share when the business is growing on all fronts how can this be a value trap when the business is actually growing while buying back shares while giving us a dividend when you hear people say this you just have to ignore them and that's how we can kind of just go back into our DCF model we can ignore the noise because people are just going to vote with their dollars and not buy the stock but it doesn't matter because eventually the company will follow its earnings if it takes 5 years 10 years whatever it is as long as this business stays durable guys when I'm putting the DCF model for jd.com look what I'm doing I'm putting 6% growth of the free cash flow I'm projecting out 5 years share reduction of 3% and this is what they're saying they're going to do they growth rate of around 5% which is very cheap a price the free cash flow of only 13 the average has been 15 and I'm seeing this in the next five years discount rate at 10% fair value at $80 a future stock price of $127 guys that's a 34% keger and that's why I'm so bullish on jd.com that's why we can sit back and wait it doesn't matter what the market does eventually it will go back to where it's supposed to be and those are like kind of conservative results in my opinion guys even if the stock doesn't move up as fast as we want to we're getting at least a 6% return the dividend and the share repurchases so guys keep that in mind as we wait for the stock to recover like this video And subscribe to my channel peace
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