저자: 진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리가 13F에서 알리바바와 JD.com 비중을 크게 늘린 것은 중국 기업들이 여전히 극도로 저평가되어 있다는 신호로 해석된다. 마이클 배리 13F 분석: 알리바바 신규 편입 수준으로 확대, JD.com 지분 233% 증가. 중국 기업과 은행주가 가장 저평가된 섹터라는 진행자의 판단을 뒷받침하는 근거로 제시됨. 은행주: 배리가 은행주를 대거 매수하고 워런 버핏의 뱅크오브아메리카 추가 매수와 리 루(Li Lu)의 추가 매수도 언급. 은행 섹터 저평가 신호로 해석. 중국 경기: 중국 경제는 2~3년째 저점에서 회복되지 않았으나, 진행자는 2분기 이후 소비 회복이 시작될 것으로 전망. JD.com도 2~3분기 소비지출 회복을 언급했다고 소개. JD.com 1분기 실적: 매출 전년비 1% 성장으로 시장 예상을 상회했으나 진행자는 실망. 비GAAP EBITDA는 56% 증가해 14억 달러. 2017~2022 순매출 연평균 24% 성장 후 향후는 5~10% 수준 예상. 세부 매출: 상품매출 -4%, 서비스매출 +34%, 마케팅·마켓플레이스 +8%, 물류 등 기타 +61%. 마진은 전년비 46.1bp 상승. 현금흐름은 악화했으나 매출채권 사이클 영향으로 설명되며 2~4분기 회복 전망. 경영진: CEO 은퇴, CFO 셰니(Sandy)가 CEO로 승진 예정. 진행자는 이를 레드플래그로 보며 전환 과정을 주시하겠다고 함. 전략: 공급망 우위와 규모의 경제를 기반으로 한 상시 최저가(everyday low price) 전략 강조, 제3자 판매자 확대와 마진 효율 개선, 중국 집중 및 동남아 철수로 수익성 강화를 장기 보유 근거로 제시. 주가: JD.com 주가가 최근 5일간 약 10% 상승했으나 전반적으로 크게 하락한 상태. 진행자는 단기 주가보다 장기 성장 잠재력을 근거로 보유 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
so Michael burry just released his 13 F filings he added a lot to Alibaba and jd.com and we're gonna get into it in this video can we dream anything from these significant ads day.com's earnings just came out last week and we're gonna talk about it there is some good there are some bad it was kind of so so we got to get into the depths of this because remember I own a lot of jd.com and Alibaba and jd.com is still a significant portion of my Holdings it's still down like 20 to 30 percent in my portfolio so we have to get into the earnings and what we're seeing for jenny.com and see if jd.com still has future potential should we hold should we add should we sell what are we doing guys let's get into this video right now but before we do like it and subscribe to my channel click that like button click that subscribe button right now so if we look at Michael burry's Holdings it's not a surprise that he added to jenny.com and Alibaba he added a hundred percent man that's crazy he added 233 percent to diddy.com Holdings guys this is not a surprise Chinese companies are still super undervalued at this point and it hasn't recovered yet it's been two to three years and the Chinese economy has not recovered from these lows so he still sees it as a huge undervaluation with Chinese companies and we have to realize that the Chinese economy is going to pick back up very very soon q1 for the Chinese economy was picking up slowly but the demand for customer products hasn't been there jd.com said in Q2 and Q3 we're gonna see the pickup and consumer spending that's an early sign for us if you own Chinese companies that it's gonna pick up in Q2 for these Chinese companies like Alibaba jd.com like 10 cent he's also buying a lot of Bank stocks because he sees a devaluation in the bank sector we know how Michael burry likes to choose his company and invest it's strictly on evaluation pretty much and he's seeing a lot of undervaluation in these sectors so we can look at Chinese companies and bank companies those are are the most undervalued stocks in my opinion and that's why I've been buying a lot of big socks and Chinese companies because those two sectors are getting hit the hardest and I think that's where you're going to see the potential returns into the future which you want that's not investment in advice but that's what I'm seeing in the market and that's what a lot of people are seeing in the market because even Warren Buffett came out and added to his position in Bank of America we see Lee Lou coming out and adding huge amounts to his Bank of America position as well I'm probably gonna do a separate video on that but damn that's showing you signs that the banking sector is very undervalued and they're buying only for one reason because it is cheap at this point jd.com stock price has been up almost 10 percent in the last five days especially on this news that pretty much Michael burry is buying the stock but the earnings did come out and it went up seven percent but then it declined again right after so you can see it Spike up right here and then down really quickly six percent and then back up as people started seeing that Michael burry and a lot of people are investing in these stocks so what happened during the earnings so jerry.com releases earnings and revenue was only a one percent year over year Beats by 560 million so it did beat but guys one percent with coming off this whole covert restriction was kind of uh disappointed I thought it was gonna be up like five to six percent but I guess the street had it way lower because they beat with only one percent Revenue growth non-gap ebitda increased by 56 year over year to 1.4 billion for the first quarter of 2023 and this is the main argument I have for jitty.com going forward seeing increasing margins you're actually looking at the cost structure and kind of rating all the expenses back in they're looking at more profitability they're getting out of all the markets that they are not good at like southeast Asia they're kind of focusing on China and I really love that because they're gonna bring up their margins they're going to focus on profitability they want economies of scale to be even larger so that's what I love about jd.com's culture and how they're moving forward so I can still see this as a long-term potential hold because of what they're doing and how they're refocusing their business and I really love that so I'm very disappointed on the revenue growth it wasn't there but overall the earnings was amazing we're gonna go side by side with this new presentation that they gave it's always good to go back and look at the overall picture of jd.com because since 2017 to 2022 kegger of net revenue was up 24 which is good and solid so are we going to see that going forward I would probably say no I think it's going to be more of the five to ten percent range so year over year again net revenue up one percent breakdown of net revenue guys product revenue is down four percent so that's like very lackluster net service Revenue up 34 which is amazing and that's how we're seeing kind of diddy.com develop data.com is trying to get more third-party merchants on their site so that's where we're seeing Marketplace and marketing Revenue up eight percent we're hoping that more people start selling on the jd.com platform and that's going to increase the market spend plus that's going to drive up margins because that's more margin efficient compared to their 1pf business and then we have Logistics and other services up 61 so that's the realmo of diddy.com it's Logistics Services man they reach everywhere in the Chinese economy and they're looking to be more efficient in that sector we can see margins up 4.6 101 bps's for a year over year which is pretty amazing and that's gonna kind of increase over time we see the cash flow kind of down but they kind of talked about how the cycle and accounts receivable so that was very understandable and they're predicting that to go up for Q uh two to Q3 Q4 so we can see a bounce back in that sector now we're gonna go over to the earnings transcript the things that I like the most about what the CEO said and guys the CEO is retiring he's getting out of the business so that's kind of a red flag for me Sandy the CFO is taking position at the CEO role now so let's see how that goes she's been in the company for many years so I'm hoping that transition is seamless but that's kind of a red flag so we're gonna see how that pans out we're gonna keep we're gonna keep an eye on that and here is where the moat comes in we are also leveraged our supply chain advantages to realize economies of scale and pass on those benefits to Consumers does that ring a bell kind of like Amazon therefore JD's ability to offer everyday low prices based on our focus on everyday low cost we'll drive several user experience changes this year by making adjustments on marketing and strategies guiding users to embrace everyday low price concept instead of stocking up Goods only at promotion thus we will see the share of everyday sales increase this year which is in line with our goal of everyday low price returning to assets of retail this is where I love the company as they're going to provide a lot of cost benefits to the consumers this is where I see JD's mode expanding so I love the long-term growth potential for jd.com and that's why I'm not really worried about the stock price at this point even though it's down like holy 50 60 whatever it is I still see the long-term gold potential for jd.com tell me what you think about everything like And subscribe to my channel
Comments 0