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the collapse in investor sentiment or consumer confidence that all happened around February 2018. So really that coincided with that first low that was made um in 2018 and the market began to stage its recovery. reveals the extraordinary odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks post April 2. Exploring market trends and investor insights.
Join us and discover these exciting opportunities. It's sliding in the final hour today. Black Rockck's Rick Reer saying last hour that the animal spirits that helped drive the market higher at the end of 2024 are part of what's hurting stocks now. Take a listen. We came in the beginning of this year.
It was all about animal animal spirits. and it seems like it's moved to animals in hibernation from animal spirits and that could trans that can translate into a bit slower growth for a couple of quarters. So that was interesting to me Tom Lee as I bring you into this conversation uh the head of research at Funstrat and a CNBC contributor um because he's talking about animals in hibernation, not not animals dying.
It goes back to this idea of uncertainty around things like trade and tariff policy and the fact that as of right now in the midst of that uncertainty perhaps companies are sitting on their hands before they start to make any kind of future investments. So if that's the situation how much does getting some sort of certainty uh now frame uh the investment thesis for for how you for how you position yourself moving forward?
Uh, I think that's exactly what's happening now, Morgan. Um, first in 2018, which Michael was talking about, this the spike in the VIX or the collapse in investor sentiment or consumer confidence, that all happened around February 2018. So really, that coincided with that first low that was made um in 2018 and the market began to stage its recovery.
Um, I don't blame any business or investor for saying, "Look, there's so much uncertainty. I can't make a decision." I think that's why Rick Reer's talking about animals in hibernation. But as we start to think about the second half of this year, first of all, we've already had the collapse in sentiment.
We've we've seen 850 billion of cash raised over the past year on money market balances. And then in the second half, we were looking for possibly tax reform, which really propelled stocks in 2017. So, I I think that the odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is just extremely high because we've already sequenced a lot of the panic that people saw in 2018.
I think it's already taken place. Today's crypto news delivers a mix of challenges and wins that captured the attention of investors and enthusiasts. NFT sales dropped 63% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to last year, casting a shadow over the market. Yet collections like Pudgy Penguins, Doodles, and Nility Maker buck the trend, performing better than expected and offering a glimpse of resilience amid downturns.
Major collections such as Cryptounks and the Board Apach Club faced significant declines, highlighting the volatile nature of the crypto space. On a regulatory front, the SEC closed its investigation into Crypto.com without further action and dismissed its case against Cumberland DRW. Meanwhile, prospective SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins underwent a heated Senate confirmation hearing where questions about his industry ties raised concerns over future regulatory decisions.
Today's updates showcase a rapidly shifting digital asset landscape. Let's watch these developments to see how they shape crypto's future. So, what would you be buying right now? Uh well to us um I think exhibit A for a V-shaped recovery is going to be Tesla because it's it's really been one of the most controversial stocks and it's been caught in that sort of political mastrom of uh Doge and Elon Musk's involvement in the White House and I think it's you know it's already recovered more than 15%.
But I think if Tesla is leading us into this balance that's a bold case for Mag 7 to be the group to own in the next few months. So you like So you like Mag 7 even though we've been talking about things like cash burn at at Microsoft and all of the capex investments and worries about a bubble in AI spending.
Yeah. I mean in some ways um you know it's been a self-amplifying downturn, right? Because we've been worried about AI as a bubble and and and the core IPO at a time when we have tariff uncertainty. So I I could see it as a very convenient reason why investors have actually avoided MAG7 and it's been the the group that kind of really led the downturn.
Um but it is a cyclical trade too because I think once investor confidence returns and they're going to start to buy stocks the MAG 7 are not only the best companies but they're the most liquid and they really derated. On top of that I think you know financials and industrials look attractive as well.
What do you think it takes to see that reversal in sentiment? We talk so much about when sentiment gets negative enough, it becomes a contrarian buy signal. So if we're there now, then what are going to be the catalysts to start to shift that confidence again? Well, I think the focus right now is on April 2.
So I think the market has a lot of myopia around getting tariffs and tariff clarity, but we know that tariffs are just one part of the administration's goal. you know there is reducing regulatory cost and then there is extending tax cuts. I think as investors start to think about that for the rest of the year that gets them quite excited and and of course we have I think we have a lot of what I would call spooled energy.
You know investors can't stay this bearish. The VIX can't stay this anxious. There is a lot of firepower and dry powder on the sidelines and I think businesses can't stay cautious forever. I mean once they know know the ground rules I think they're going to actually start making decisions. XRP is facing a potential 40% drop as technical signals and macroeconomic pressures create uncertainty among risk traders.
A bearish descending triangle pattern has been forming on its weekly chart, indicating that the current rally may be nearing its end with a flat support line and a downward sloping resistance. Technical analysis suggests that a break below support could push XRP toward a target of approximately $1.32.
This pattern aligns with veteran trader Peter Brandt's warning of a decline to as low as $1.7 based on a head and shoulders formation visible on the daily chart. Adding to the pressure, President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on autoimp imports set to take effect on April 3 is spooking risk traders.
The tariffs are expected to increase costs for manufacturers and consumers, further tightening market conditions. The drop in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, now below earlier estimates, diminishes the flow of capital into riskier assets such as XRP. A delayed rate cut means investors may become more cautious, reducing speculative activity and dampening momentum in digital asset markets.
Market uncertainty remains high as investors weigh technical indicators against broader economic challenges. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether XRP bounces off support or continues its downward trend. Observing these developments will be key for those tracking XRP and other cryptocurrencies in an increasingly volatile environment.
Analysts advise close monitoring of market signals and regulatory changes as they may provide warnings of further downturns or unexpected recoverie.
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