저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 2022년 말 기준으로 연준이 긴축 기조를 바꾸는 피벗(금리 인하)이 곧 올 것이며, 이로 인해 성장주 중심의 랠리가 나타날 것이라고 주장함. 연준 피벗 전망: 강달러(1년간 약 25% 상승)가 강력한 반인플레이션 압력으로 작용해 연준이 먼저 방향을 바꿀 것이고, 말로만 바뀌어도 시장이 반등하며 내년에는 실제 금리 인하가 시작될 것으로 봄. 이미 경기침체 상태이고 재고 조정이 1년 내 진행될 것이라고 판단. 인플레이션 해석: 현재 인플레이션은 1970년대처럼 구조화된 것이 아니라 코로나 이후 공급망 충격과 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁에서 비롯된 15개월짜리 문제라고 봄. 파월 연준의 볼커 흉내 내기는 실수라고 비판. 내년에는 월간 기준 디플레이션이 나타나고 CPI 전년비도 마이너스가 될 수 있다고 전망. 중앙은행 동향: 영국은행(LDI 리스크로 후퇴), 호주(25bp 인상), 중국(완화 예고), 일본·중국의 자국통화 방어 개입(달러 매도)이 사실상 달러 유동성을 늘리는 완화 효과를 준다고 설명. 비트코인·코인베이스: FTX 붕괴 이후 위기를 거치며 옥석이 가려진다고 보고, 본인이 약 700만 달러 규모의 비트코인을 보유한다고 밝힘. 2030년 비트코인 100만 달러 도달을 여전히 믿음. ARK는 코인베이스 주식을 계속 매수했음(한 번에 296,586주 등 ETF 편입 확대). 포트폴리오 전망: 베어 케이스조차 5년 연복리 15%의 최소 허들을 충족한다고 주장. 메타·넷플릭스 등 기존 파괴자들이 틱톡 등에 의해 파괴되고 있으며, ARK는 신흥 파괴적 혁신 기업(자동화, 로봇, AI, 핀테크, 클라우드, 이커머스)에 집중한다고 설명. 기업들의 채용 동결은 파괴당해서가 아니라 공격적 투자와 현금흐름 중시 때문이라고 해석. 성장주 선호가 다시 돌아올 것으로 봄. 리스크/조건: 인플레이션이 예상보다 지속되면 연준 긴축이 길어질 수 있다는 점을 시나리오로 언급.
다듬은 글
in terms of interest rates if we're right on inflation then we think the first thing that will happen is the fed and other central banks will pivot the FED will pivot first because we have an extra uh Force fighting inflation it's called the strong dollar and the dollar has been extremely strong up 25 in the last year or so uh and that's that's a powerful anti-inflationary force uh and uh we think the FED will first change its rhetoric and the market will rally just on a change in rhetoric and then we think it will actually start cutting interest rates at some point next year we will be in a recession we do believe we have been in a recession uh we see the inventories uh being disgorged uh within the next year and the FED will be facing falling prices uh so we think uh Edge will ease and I I believe other central banks will follow thank you arc invest CEO and CIO Kathy Wood updates about the current state of crypto Market following FTX collapse the future of Bitcoin and regulations needed in the space along with her stocks on inflation and interest rates China probably started and if you look at some of the Central Bank actions of late uh whereas they were following the FED now they're pulling away a little bit the bank of England had to pull away because of the liability driven investing excesses and uh margin calls and so forth they're nearly men moment as they would say so they've had to pull away uh we saw Australia raising its interest rates 25 basis points instead of the 50 to 75 basis points China is saying it's going to ease and um one of the other reasons they're changing their spots is they have certain limits in mind for their own currencies in terms of how much will they let them depreciate both Bank of China and the the pboc and the bank of Japan uh have effectively said you know we are going to intervene so that our current our currencies don't depreciate that much more and what that means is they are selling dollars and buying back their own currencies so they're actually adding to Dollar liquidity an effective easing out there not starting with the FED but starting with other central banks investment house Arc invest continued a buying spree of coinbase stock adding a total of 296 586 coin shares to its exchange traded funds every every um model that we do has a bold case of bear case and a base case so yes we do say oh what could go wrong and um I can tell you right now that I have never seen in my career The Five-Year rate of return expectation that we have in our portfolios right now so much so that even the bear case uh meets our minimum hurdle rate of return our minimum hurdle rate of return so a compound growth over a five-year period so per year averaging 15 percent uh uh our bear case um meets that uh minimum hurdle rate of return wood is a staunch Bitcoin Bowl saying on Peter McCormick's what Bitcoin did podcast that she personally holds around seven million dollars of the digital asset after the collapse of FTX wood said that she still believes Bitcoin will hit one million dollars by 2030.
sometimes you need to battle test you need to go through crises to see the survivors we think Bitcoin is coming out of this smelling like a rose in terms of where we are um we're we're in this downturn primarily because of inflation and interest rates and uh fears about how long it's going to take the FED to and and other central banks uh to to get inflation in particular under control um now there are two ways of looking at this inflation one which it seems the fed and the ECB are are using is you know this is a lot like the 70s it was inflation that became embedded and and the FED had to uh really uh strangle it out of the system uh and uh so that's the way they're going about it uh the other the other way of looking at it is that this inflation happened because of a major Supply shock started with covet I never would have dreamed supply chain issues would last for two plus years but they have and uh and then of course Russia invaded Ukraine and so we've had that supply chain issue that pricing issue so if this is a supply shock and as really uh was really a 15 month problem uh that's how long it took the FED to really uh turn around and say wait a minute uh it is not a 15-year problem if you look at the 70s inflation it started uh at least in the United States because of the Vietnam War 1964 and the Great Society programs that President Johnson put in place all kinds of new social programs also 1964 we went off the gold exchange standard in 1971 oil prices quadrupled and all hell broke loose for the rest of the decade we got to double-digit inflation and it was really hard to pound it out of the system Federal Reserve chairman volcker gets credit for it and and he was very brave and courageous uh to tackle it the way he did uh I think chairman Powell here in the United States thinks that he is The Reincarnation of chairman volcker uh and I think that's a mistake because this is not a 15-year problem it's a 15-month problem that the feds started tackling and we were already beginning to see deflation Arc is an actively managed ETF that invests in companies targeting disruptive innovation including air areas such as automation Robotics and artificial intelligence Arc F invests in equity Securities of companies engaged in the fund's investment theme of fintech innovation while Arc W aims to capture internet-based products and services cloud computing artificial intelligence e-commerce and media Innovations and of course now if we're right we're going to start seeing deflation on a month-to-month basis and we wouldn't be surprised to see CPI negative year over year at some point next year if we're right what has happened during the last two years is going to flip and we think the the market will flip back to a preference for growth stocks and our Innovation strategy arc's purchases of coin look like a typical wood double down though with the fund manager stating last month that the collapse of FTX benefits the crypto industry as it further helps to strengthen the infrastructure and the thesis of the digital currency the layoffs that we're seeing um are in companies that we might say used to be considered the disruptors like meta platforms formerly Facebook Netflix they were disrupting uh the the media world the uh advertising World dramatically and they have been for years uh but guess what Tick Tock came along and is taking all the oxygen out of the room meaning uh real competition for the con for mind share the consumer's mind share so the formally disruptors are now being disrupted we didn't own those names certainly not in our Flagship strategy and some of our very specialized strategies perhaps we did um but we didn't in the flagship for exactly that reason we saw that disruption happening and yeah very interestingly you know meta platforms Netflix the fangs generally are at the top of most uh growth portfolios and especially large cap growth uh portfolios um we are highly differentiated that way we are looking for the new disruptors and um the reason they may be putting on hiring freezes is not because they're being disrupted it's because they're investing so aggressively that and the Market's so focused on cash flow and and uh cash uh on the balance sheet that they are reining in some of their growth programs in the short term but they are the disruptors so that's the those that's the distinction so what do you think about Kathy Woods decision to invest in coinbase
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