저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
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QRTEA(큐레이트) 주가는 2023년 3월 기준 약 1.11달러로 고점 대비 92% 하락했으며, 마이클 버리가 13F에서 일부 매도한 종목이다. 회사 실적: 2022년 매출이 감소했고 전자상거래 매출은 14% 감소했으며, 고객 계정 수도 2020년 12월 정점 이후 매년 줄고 있다. 온라인 매출 비중은 64% 이상이다. 부채 구조: 2029년 만기 회사채는 액면가의 24센트에 거래되어 수익률이 약 30%, 2030년 만기 채권은 27센트 수준으로 시장이 파산 가능성을 반영하고 있다. 보유 현금은 약 12~13억 달러이고 장기부채는 약 55억 달러다. 현금흐름: 잉여현금흐름은 2011년 약 6억 달러 이후 대체로 9억~10억 달러 수준으로 안정적이었으며, 애널리스트는 2023년 7억 달러, 2024년 10억 달러 이상을 전망한다. 발표자는 보수적으로 7억 달러를 가정한다. 밸류에이션: 기업가치(EV) 약 75억 달러는 잉여현금흐름 7억 달러 기준 약 10배로, 발표자는 이를 비싸다고 평가한다. 다만 부채를 시장가 이하에서 재매입하면 실질 부채가 줄어 매력이 커질 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 2025~2026년 상환 부담(약 6억 달러, 5.45억 달러, 리볼빙 약 27억 달러)이 크며, 2026년에 위기가 올 가능성이 있다. 채권시장이 맞고 주식이 0이 될 경우 전액 손실 위험이 있다. 매매 전략: 발표자는 주가가 바닥을 다지고 지지선을 확인한 뒤 분할 매수하되, 신저가를 갱신하면 손절하는 전략을 제시한다. 마이클 버리식 손절 원칙을 따르라고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 발표자는 시장이 더 많이 알 수 있다는 겸손함이 필요하며, 투자 여부는 본인 판단이라고 말한다.
다듬은 글
so many of you have asked about my opinion on q r t e a stock a stock that Michael burry actually owned and he sold some of it in his latest 13 app filing but many of you still own the stock because you believe it's undervalued and the stock is down over 92 percent from its size and now it's sitting only at a dollars and 11 cents per share and this company does have a lot of problems with that their own bonds are priced in like the company is going bankrupt tomorrow which going to take a look at that but they had pretty much the same situation in 2009 and after you know all the fears were gone that the company is not going to go bankrupt it went up over 1658 percent pretty much in the next uh you know five or six years which has been a pretty you know amazing thing so in this video I'm going to go over qrta stock which is I believe curate uh retail and I'm going to review their you know their debt profiles their bonds and see if maybe we can have another repeat of what we had you know from 2009 over 1650 percent or maybe the company is actually going under and we shouldn't really be touching it and I'm even going to tell you how I would personally buy or trade qrta if I had to do it in my portfolio so again I really hope you enjoy this video so curate sells a lot of products on TV they have some of their own Brands but they have other popular brands and from my understanding of the company they are mostly selling that stuff on you know cable TV which is really pretty much going out most people buy things online they buy things on Amazon they buy things as they see you know on Instagram some influencer wearing them or some type of you know advertisement on the internet they're not buying much you know things on TV which is why a lot of people's own have an older age actually use a curate to buy a lot of those you know different things but the company again has been moving online and a lot of things and if we look at that online usage it's over a 64 percent of Revenue is actually coming online from an e-commerce website that they actually built so they are trying to make a shift but as we can see the company has suffered a lot of different things one of them is declining people watching you know cable TV and stuff other ones had you know some macro economics issues that affected the company they even had some type of a facility go on fire and then it affected their net income so it was a very bad year for curate in 2022 which is why I'm not really going to focus on what they did this year I'm going to try to focus a little bit on what's going you know to happen next with the company but the company's revenues declined again in 2022 and they were actually you know a 14 decline of the e-commerce revenue from 2021 to 2022 and even their customer account actually has been delayed lining it peaked in December of 2020 and it has been declining every single year and again the company is declining which is you know which is why shredding a dollar was 11 is down over 92 percent and the biggest problem with the company is their debt they do have a lot of debt and if we look at their debt profile and how the market is pricing this debt their corporate bond which is due in 2029 is trading at 24 cents on the dollar now normally whenever you have a bond trading at 24 cents on the dollar I mean this is you know pretty bad it's pretty much pricing in like the company is going bankrupt the original yield on the bond is around four percent coupon now the yield is around 30 percent on this Bond because it declined to 24 cents so the bond market is pretty much pricing it in like this company is not going to survive and is going to go bankrupt and it's the same thing with the 2030 maturity date the coupon is around 3.75 percent now it's yielding 27 percent and it's trading at 27 you know dollars on par which is 27 cents on the dollars and again whenever you have something like that happening in the Box market and bond market investors are pricing this thing within the bonds of any single company normally this company is really not going to survive because the bondholders they do much more research than Equity holders and they really want to have their monies they want to be compensated for the risk of them actually taking on this whole debt but you sometimes also have mispricings in the market where some bonds just get too mispriced because of Treasury yields yielding you know five five and a half percent on the t-bill sometimes whenever you have such competitions these bonds trade at a discount regardless of how the company you know is actually doing which is what I'm going to try to evaluate in this video now we talked about them having a lot of debt but the company took a lot of initiatives to try to reduce this debt and and pay it back as much as possible one of the things they try to do is they try to you know sell some of the Fulfillment centers as they have and try to take a lease on it for example they generated around 340 million after they sold one of their you know uh lease back transactions and they did another one five properties they raised over 433 million then they list another one and they sold it in UK and Germany is around 182 million US dollars so again they did a lot of things to really try to raise some cash and be more efficient in their business model to try to take this cash and pay down to that and the new management has been you know so far actually doing a pretty good job at you know raising some Capital to try to pay down the debt but looking more at their balance sheet now the company has around 1.2 billion almost 1.3 billion dollars of cash and the long term that which is actually not much is only 5.5 a half billions I have some more obligations some preferred stock and stuff but in terms of long term that is actually five and a half billion and they have almost 1.3 billion dollars in terms of the balance sheet on cash but if we look at the company's free cash flow I am actually very very impressed with how resilient this free cash flow has actually been over the years and this is one of the reasons why qrta was able to survive after 2009 and go up 1658 percent because their free cash flow HMR is much more resilient than I actually imagined I would have imagined this company having anywhere from a hundred million to a billion dollars like you know it being all over the place but it's actually been pretty stable around 900 million to a billion dollars in 2011.
they had around 602 million and this is what the analysts are expecting they are expecting 700 million in 2023 and over a billion dollars by 2024 and two analysts are actually doing those expectations on this company but I'm not gonna try to to use them but again if you could do pretty simple mess with this company if they can keep generating 900 to a billion dollars of yearly free cash flow they can actually pay back so that that they have every single year and the company can survive now with the cash balance as they have of around 1.2 billion they can pay their 2023 and 2024 that was this cash position but the question is what are they going to do after because in 2025 they have 600 million of debt they have 545 million in 2026 plus pretty close to a 2.7 billion dollars revolver credit facility which they're going to have to pay down unless they can maybe you know refinance at a later date and then push it up another 10 years and it will likely not be at the interest rates where qrta has their debt which is around three to four percent coupons which is again locked in at a pretty low rate for such companies business model so the big trouble for the company is in 2026 but then have enough cash to survive in 2023 and go even into 2024 and depending on how their free cash flow actually is over those two years maybe they can raise two two and a half billion of free cash flow and try to pay down some of the debt but even if they do raise this free cash flow it's not going to be enough to pay you know the revolver or pretty close to 2.7 billion and 545 billion of long-term debt so it's going to be a lot of debt on the company and they're likely going to run into trouble in 2026.
now this is how I would personally value qrta which is pretty hard to Value I'm not really counting on them you know staying at a billion dollars of free cash flow although the analysts are expecting a billion dollars in 2024 but I'm not really counting on it I would rather use it you know shorter number like 700 million in 2023 and try to estimate that you know TV ads and stuff are going to decline in the future people are gonna go more and more to Amazon not go show up on the qrta and those type of you know websites so again if we use the 700 billion of free cash flow for the company the company's current market cap is 480 million but I believe we should value this company on Enterprise Value total Enterprise Value because they do have a lot of debt and this is the main issue with the company so if we use this 700 million and the Enterprise Value is pretty close to seven and a half billion this is more than 10 times free cash flow on this company now 10 times free cash flow for the company that's declining in pretty much everything that has those bonds priced in at this level in my opinion is very very expensive actually at 10 times free cash flow on Enterprise Value if it was trading at two to three times free cash flow on Enterprise Value meaning with that and everything that would make it much more interesting to me but for it to be trading at 10 times Enterprise Value on 700 million of free cash flow which I personally believe is very very fair I believe if the company is not as cheap as people believe but here is the trick if they can actually use this free cash flow to pay down the debt like we talked about the company is going to be much more attractive you know than people actually believe and there's something else that they can do which which is not really factored in a lot of investors research because if they do have for example let's assume the you know 500 million by 2028 and if the 500 million bond in 2028 is trading at 24 cents on a dollar they can actually buy some of it in the open market at a huge discount and the entire debt is going to be much less than 400 or 500 million dollars so they can actually buy back that at a discount if it's still trading at a discount in the open bond market some of those bonds have restrictions where they can't do that or they can you know do some of it but if they can go on the open market and actually buy those bonds back directly which they can actually do and core Civic has been actually doing that they bought some of them at a discount in the past qrta can actually do the same thing and then the total debt will be much less than people actually believe but the bond market actually scares me a lot with this investment that maybe there's something that we actually don't know for it to be trading at 24 cents on a dollar and yielding 30 and a half percent you know on the 2029 bonds and around 35 percent on the 2028 bonds I would normally go and say the market is wrong and I would go and buy this investment like I did with many companies like Geo and core Civic but Geo and core Civics they had their bounds around 95 cents even a hundred percent on sometimes score Civic had you know 105 on their debt so it was sometimes actually trading at a premium because the company is pretty safe so I trust the bondholders here and the bondholders are saying we shouldn't really be touching you know qrtea and I believe this is why Michael burry actually sold this investment and this is a big mistake that a lot of people people make you know they go and they want to buy stocks that Michael burry actually bought and then after a couple of weeks they say oh Michael burry sold to stock and then they're still holding it now whenever you have something that qrta or something like Lumen Technologies or some of those companies that are in a free phone and you don't know if it's going to go under or not you must have some type of a risk management strategy and what Michael burry does he buys it whenever he sees strength in a chart meaning whenever it bounces a little bit it feels like the price is stabilizing and if it does make a new low Michael body would exit the position and he would cut it out this is what he said before in his MSN articles and this is what he normally does so whenever you're trying to buy a Michael burry stock if you really want to you know invest in it just because Michael Murray owns it in my opinion you should Implement similar type of strategy like Michael burry actually talked about in his MSN articles whenever he buys a stock he has some type of a stop loss on a new 52 weeks lows and if the company does make a new low it means that the chart is weak it means that the company could go below so it cuts his loss and move on but a lot of people buy those Michael Boris stocks and they hold them and they dollar cost average you know like they're buying Coca-Cola or like they're buying you know Amazon or apple or Nvidia or whatever you should not be treating those cigar bus stocks like you trade any company any Mega cap you know stock like Google or Amazon or whatever you should treat them as cigar bot you have to be humble enough to say maybe the market actually knows more than I do and maybe you should exit and this is how I would personally trade qrta I would wait for the price to spit stabilize see if it's holding up at a certain level I would try to build a position and then maybe put a loss of me trying to cut my loss if it does make a new low and then I walk away from this investment and I just don't touch it again this is how I would trade something like qrta and if I'm right and I do catch the bottom on qrta and the sentiment changes the you know the Opera is going to be huge but if I'm wrong and if the bond market is right and qrta is going to zero like whatever price then although I don't believe so because they have a lot of ways they can generate free cash flow but let's assume the bond market is right and qrta is going to zero in this case you're going to be wiped out and this is not something this is not a good risk reward you would want with such investment which is how I would personally try to buy qrta maybe I take a shot on it maybe not but I'm trying to help you guys and tell you how Michael burry actually thinks about it because he said it in his MSN articles yet people buy his stocks and they buy them and hold them forever and they keep averaging down 50 60 70 80 to 90 percent while Michael Brody has been out weeks ago because the stock made a new low so you have to know how Michael burry sings before you try and you know buy his Investments you know in my personal opinion so this was my assaults on qrta I hope you enjoyed this video and I hope you learned something I hope you liked it if you did consider subscribing and maybe press the like button and I hope to see you in another video
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