저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Siegel 교수는 연준이 다음 회의에서 0.25%p 인상은 하되 향후 긴축 중단(pause)을 시사하는 방향으로 갈 것이라고 본다. 다만 본인은 금리 인상이 불필요하다고 주장하며, 금리 동결이 오히려 시장에 불안을 줄 수 있다고 본다. 금융 불안 측면: 스위스 발 금융 충격과 SVB 사태로 인해 역전 금리차가 확대되었고, 과거 50년간 모든 경기침체 전에 역전이 있었다는 점을 경계한다. 그러나 이번 사태가 오히려 연준의 긴축 기조를 재고하게 만들 수 있다고 본다. 금리 및 물가 전망: 선물시장은 금리 인상 종료 후 인하를 반영하고 있으며, 연준 점도표 상단이 6%에서 5% 근처로 낮아질 것으로 예상한다. 연준의 긴축 효과는 아직 완전히 반영되지 않았으며, 지난 40년 중 가장 빠른 금리 인상과 실질금리 상승이 시차를 두고 나타날 것으로 본다. 생산자물가지수(PPI) 등 물가 지표는 개선 추세를 보인다. 노동시장: 고용 보고서에서 U-6 실업률이 소폭 상승하며 노동시장이 다소 완화되고 있다고 평가한다. 다만 신규 실업수당 청구건수는 변동성이 크다고 본다. 임금 억제 정책은 부적절하며 노동 공급 확대를 위해 임금 상승이 필요하다고 주장한다. 리스크: 금융 사고가 실제로 경기 연착륙에서 경착륙으로의 전환을 가져올 수 있다는 시장 우려가 존재하며, Apollo의 Torsten Slok은 최단기 및 장기 금리 정점이 이미 나왔을 가능성을 제시했다. Siegel은 이에 대해 연준이 금리를 동결하지 않고 점진적 조정(인상 후 중단)을 선택할 것으로 본다. 출연자 전망: 연준이 과도하게 긴축적이었으며, 금융 불안 신호에 따라 정책 기조를 조정해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
as I mentioned who's going to be with us today he of course a famed Finance professor of the Wharton School Professor it's good to have you on just give me your thoughts on on what is top of mind for you you just heard our report about what's coming out of Switzerland the impact that it's had on the market all day long well Scott I hope that this knocks uh some reality into the fed and uh chairman Powell you know we've been talking about the the big inversion 40 biggest in 40 Years of the term structure certainly svb went down on that inversion now yeah Bankers are not supposed to borrow short and lend long we know all about that but there's a reason that every recession last 50 years has filed an inversion something blows up something goes wrong um I I think this ultimately could be good because if you look at the Futures market right now they're saying one and done uh uh and then and then a decline as you know I've been saying that they've been way too tight uh for the last six to nine months actually I'd have to have to look at the liquidity the inversion and I think that those realities are finally seeping in I hope they're seeping in to the fat what's what should the FED do next week well assuming that not no further crisis in the next seven days I think what's going to happen is they are going to do 25 but the message is going to be a likely pause they won't commit to a pause but uh they're going to say look at the producer price index uh that we got a very good news this morning they're going to say we're beginning to see good progress on that inflation front we know the bulk of monetary uh tightening is yet to be felt and given the financial climate and the risks uh we could afford to to pause uh in our tightening they won't commit it but I think the language is going to be totally different from the language we had after uh the last meeting but you just said that's what you think they'll do I want to know what you think they should do well I I thought I I don't think they should raise and I didn't think they should have raised increased last time because the bulk of the monetary tightening the fastest increase in fed funds rates and real rates uh in at least 40 years was showing progress uh you know we talked about the Distortion in in the actual particularly Consumer Price data on and housing I talked about the fact that I thought that the war against wages was uh inappropriate uh we we need to raise wages to bring labor into the labor force and by the way I thought it was a a very promising labor report we had two tick uh two tenths of a percent you know increase in the U2 the U6 unemployment a little bit of a loosening he's going to use that language we see a little bit of a loosening of Labor Market of course tomorrow morning we'll get the initial jobless claims it it certainly did jump up on one week but that that's a volatile series we're going to see what's going to happen uh tomorrow on that but he could change his story uh looking at the the so to speak slow down side uh rather than only looking at the Troublesome inflation areas and uh uh I think he should have been looking at that slow down side for very many more months so what he should do is not increase at all but I think I think he's going to increase 25 with a very big change in language what's going to be interesting Scott is the dot Cloud because uh normally uh the the bank presidents and the fomc fills it out you know uh one or two weeks beforehand I think it's totally different after svb than before I hope they get them all a chance to revise it because it was going up to six and now if you take a look at the Futures Market it's barely going to five yeah so you know Apollo said today when the facts change my view changes this is from somebody at Apollo torsten's lock a financial accident has happened we're not going we're going from no Landing to a hard Landing the FED will not raise rates next week and we have likely seen the peak in both short and long rates um isn't he right I mean we just had an accident that's actually a quote from John Maynard quick Keynes who said uh when the facts change I change my opinion what do you do sir he once responded um and and I I read tourist and uh Slack's uh comments on that yeah I mean again I think they shouldn't um but uh my my feeling was I'll tell you why I think they're gonna go 25.
if they suddenly go zero it could worry the market oh my goodness I mean they're giving up on that are they so worried about the economy that everything they voice and all the opinions they've had over the last six months are down throwing aside I think a more measured way of doing is 25 with a pause um we are seeing progress
Comments 0