The Fed is excessively data-dependent, says Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

Fed의 2023년 3월 금리 인상 결정(25bp)은 데이터 의존적이었다는 점에서 혼란을 준다는 결론. 스스로 25bp 인상 후 다시 50bp를 언급하는 것은 정책 지침의 번복이며, 시장 변동성을 키운다고 비판. 직전 회의에서 50bp 유지가 맞았고, 25bp로 성급히 내린 것은 실수였다고 주장. 정책 지침 번복 과정에서 2년물 금리는 한 달 새 100bp 이상 움직였고, 장단기 금리 역전은 1981년 이후 최대 수준으로 확대됨. 인플레이션 둔화 서사가 '물가 안정과 멀다'는 Fed 발언으로 대체되었다고 지적. 2020년 채택된 새 통화정책 프레임워크는 총수요 부족 세계용이며, 현재는 총공급 부족 상황이라 정책 틀이 맞지 않는다고 봄. 연착륙(soft landing) 기대는 장단기 역전을 고려하면 달성이 어려워 보인다는 입장. 데이터 변화에 따른 조정 필요성은 인정하나, 정책 지침의 일관성과 점진적 긴축 신호가 더 중요하다고 강조. 정책 금리가 높은 수준(약 6.5%)까지 가는 경로를 놓고 Fed가 딜레마에 처해 있다고 진단.

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01. uh for more on the fed's rate hike ifb is this thing in our year where you can hear let's bring in Muhammad alerian Allianz and Gramercy chief economic advisor president of Queens College Cambridge in that I don't know whether all things changed yesterday Muhammad probably didn't change for you you've been pretty hawkish but for me the reason that they were going 25 basis points was because they were data dependent and that sort of threw me for a loop yesterday it's like you would you would take the full dose of an antibiotic you wouldn't like take it in a piecemeal fashion if you wanted to to take care of something and they were obviously doing it you know in 25 basis point moves now they're saying maybe we need 50.

02. so do they they're no longer data dependent or do they know something excessively data depend excessively so they lack extern View they lack a monetary frame and therefore you get this flip-flopping something's going on with your audio I I got most of that Muhammad I hope uh we're going to keep trying and hope that goes but if they if they were data dependent all along how did they get down to 25 basis points was that that was a was that a mistake that they only won 25 last time it was a mistake and I told you that before they went 25 I told you they should keep at 50.

03. so at this point do you think faster hikes and a higher terminal rate or can we just go faster to get to you know hopefully not six and a half percent do you think five and a half does it we get there quicker so they've got a dilemma Joe what do you do now if you go back to 50 you're negating all the forward policy guidance you gave over a month ago if you stay at 25 you fall further behind on the inflation front so you know it's a situation it's a whole that they dug for themselves and they keep on digging they they have to stop digging themselves such a deep hole because there's real consequences the whole point of forward policy guidance is to allow for smooth economic and market adjustments that's why we the FED has become so transparent instead since the day after the fomc meeting what has happened the two-year has moved by over 100 basis points the Tuesday has inverted by another 40 basis points to levels we haven't seen in 1981 and all The Narrative of disinflation has been replaced by and I quote chapal here us being very far away from Price stability that's not a way to run monetary policy and they need better strategic and structural anchoring of what they're doing Steve wants to ask questions I want to ask and then you need Mohammed to tell me just how bad that inversion uh what that is forecasting for the overall economy I I think it just it makes it tough to Envision a soft Landing but go ahead Steve Muhammad I was just going to ask how um I don't know quite how to put this do you give the FED any leeway because of the dramatic revision to the data I mean I get what you're saying it would be nice if things were smooth and and I completely agree with what you're saying regarding the idea that policy guidance should make things smoother and give the market time but you know what things changed and the FED changed because things change and I think if they didn't you'd be right back here saying they're not paying attention to the data so I'm just wondering how you respond to that so first they knew that before they downshifted to 25 so that didn't stop them from downshifting to 25.

04. the first thing that's just a fact second thing is also a fact that new monetary framework adopted in 2020 is for a world of insufficient aggregate demand we are in a world of insufficient aggregate supply so they lack the framework for monetary policy thirdly a risk assessment approach to policy at the last meeting and that's what I shared with you and wrote it before the meeting would have suggested that the balance of risk is such that it's better to keep 50 than to go to 25 prematurely so Steve I am very sympathetic with how fluid the economic situation is I'm very sympathetic with how difficult it is to exit a regime of suppression but let's not have a new layer of policy induced volatility on top of these things and that's what we're getting it's flip-flopping of policy guidance