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after the great run in the gold price from um below 1500 in march to 2075 in august um the market's gone a little bit flat we're trading a couple of hundred dollars below those uh all-time highs so actually is the best of the move well behind gold and now is the time to sell out or actually is this just uh another buying opportunity before another look at those all-time highs we're going to take a bit of a different tack in this video and talk about legendary hedge fund manager uh ray dalio and his thoughts on the market and where the threats could be and then we'll talk about gold normally before we get into all of that let's just see what's been going on recently we had that great run up of course to those all-time highs but the price has been really uh flat since that sharp sell-off let's take a look at the shorter term so this is what the market looks like over the last um six weeks or so since those all-time highs and we are nudging back down to that that low from um the the middle of august around about 1860 really big level to watch and there's a a big threat for gold i think in in the months ahead our gold trades are under some pressure so i'm currently running a loss of about 170 pounds on gold so given the sell-off we're seeing in this market it's now the time to actually dump the positions because sentiment has changed and goals going to sell off much harder or actually it's just another correction hello i'm david jones from capital.com and i thought um we take a look at what someone else thought about gold uh for a change so i thought we we'd do a gold update but with a slightly different twist and talk a bit about legendary hedge fund manager uh ray dalio so as usual in this video i'll talk a bit about him uh his views on gold uh we'll talk about what's been driving the market what to look out for then we'll jump back onto the platform look at things uh in more detail from a technical point of view and see if there's a trade to do as usual if you're watching this and you haven't subscribed if you could click on subscribe it helps support the channel and means we can continue to push out about four videos every week on the different markets we cover plus of course um we've started doing live streams quite regularly now the next one will be uh the first friday uh in october covering the payrolls if you're subscribed and you have the alarm bell thing pushed uh you get notified whenever we go live anyway let's get into uh talking about ray daniel and gold so who is ray dalio well he's a legendary hedge fund manager uh a multi-billionaire hedge fund manager i should say founded his firm bridgewater associates back in 1975.
in 2013 bridgewater um had become the largest hedge fund in the world and um as of this year according to bloomberg uh mr dalio was the 79th richest person in the world so someone who does appear to have done okay out of financial markets over the years he did step back from the day-to-day running of the hedge fund in 2017 and actually it's not been the best of years uh for bridgewater as of august of this year it's uh sort of flagship pure alpha 2 fund is down um just over 18 for the year uh to date into august with plenty saying that they were somewhat late to react to the market sell-off in march which i think is understandable because it happened so quickly but then a bit late to get back in as the markets around the world recovered so it has definitely underperformed versus its peers gold though should have been a good market for bridgewater in the second quarter uh the company put in something like 400 million dollars into gold via etfs those exchange traded funds we've talked about uh before in the second quarter of the year and of course we saw that incredible run-up uh by gold that started in mid-july even though the market has been somewhat flat over the last month more recently mr dalio says that he thinks that the us dollar is really under threat as the world's reserve currency due to the ongoing stimulus uh provided by the central bank uh the federal reserve we've seen of course plenty of stimulus plenty of help from central banks since the the spread of the coronavirus pandemic so far at least um the u.s dollar in recent trading is sort of defying this call for for its uh demise it has taken a big hit since march but we are seeing some strength come back in let's talk about what's been going on with gold so as we all know i think if we follow gold we hit all-time highs uh in august trading up to about 2075 uh dollars an ounce we have seen quite a sharp reversal of that fairly soon afterwards and at the time recording gold is trading pretty much where it was a month ago there was a lot of interest in gold uh in the second quarter i talked about uh bridgewater putting money in via etfs exchange traded funds these these etfs saw a record influx uh in the second quarter of 2020 with uh both retail private investors and institutions buying etfs to gain exposure to gold and then of course we saw that fantastic run up but i do think for gold i think the biggest threat over the next few months is a recovery in the in the us dollar we've talked about this dollar index uh a little uh over the last few weeks we'll take a look at it when we jump back uh onto the platform the dollar has taken a battering uh since march but i think if you look at the price action more recently it's perhaps not doing what it should be doing you know we're seeing more support from the fed commitment to uh pretty much near zero interest rates for the next two or three years but we are seeing the dollar perhaps building a base i think if we see further us dollar strength from here that's something that could really put the squeeze on gold so the question is is this dollar come back about to wrong for investors or are we going to see more holes uh appearing in the global economy which will lead people perhaps to look at gold as a safe haven let's talk about the levels to watch then we'll go back onto the platform and see if there's a trade the obvious big level to pick out those all-time highs from august 2075 uh dollars an ounce after that we've got some more levels on the way down with the most recent coming in the most recent barrier on the upside around about 1 975 on the downside i think 1860 is a big level uh for short to medium term traders um this is the level we hit uh in the sharp selloff from those all-time eyes and saw support come in is it going to be the same this time round let's take a look on the chance if we take a look at the really long term in goals our favorite chart going back to uh 2018.
that trend is still going we had the sell-off in march came back towards the trend line the market accelerated since then that trend is coming in around on fifteen hundred dollars an hour and slightly below there so the two year plus trend is still uh still chugging along but has it really got a bit ahead of itself let's focus on the move since march so there's the march move um the trend off those lows uh from around 1450 that sort of area and we have fallen out of that trend really by virtue of the fact the price of gold has been trading sideways so we've slipped out of that trend and for me 1850 1860 is the really big level to watch if we fall below there i think the risk is for a deeper sell-off i think anybody who got into the move late on saw it sell off sharply after the all-time highs i think if the market starts pushing below 1850 the risk is uh for a deeper sell-off you know looking at the the july levels from 1750 to 1800 but for now i'm quite happy to stick with the existing positions in gold and the stops but like i said it's the dollar is the thing to watch so let's take a quick look at the dollar index so here's our dollar index i've talked about this a bit in recent weeks and it's a really interesting market it's the dollar against this basket of different currencies and we've so we saw the dollar perform really well in march when everyone had a risk off approach less risky assets like the us dollar was seen as a safe haven but then investors came back and embraced risk over the last six months and that's meant the dollar index fell from 104 down to 92.
so we saw an 11 fall pretty much in the value of the us dollar but what's been interesting is what's been going on over the last couple of months so we had this low for the dollar index in july it tries to push lower in august but there's no follow-through tries to push lower again in september but again we don't get the follow-through and i said um that actually is this the market discounting all the negative news for the u.s dollar the commitment to uh zero interest rates the possibility of more fed intervention and could we see a us dollar recovery from here at the time of recording the dollar's trading in its best levels since the end of july and it looks to have broken out that downtrend so i do think the dollar index for all sorts of reasons is an interesting market uh to watch from here and i think we could expect further uh dollar strength so i think that is going to put a bit of a squeeze on the value of gold but for now i'm happy to stick uh with the position because of the sell-off that we've seen uh the rsi down here has gone oversold it's the first time we've seen an oversold rsi we need to go back to march uh of this year for the price of gold to see the rsi this uh extreme and tying it in with the old support i suppose if you were really aggressive down here uh with the with the price trading around about 1884 at the time of recording you could be a buyer with stops the other side of perhaps 1850 looking for a squeeze back up to those early september highs in the sort of 1965 area that sort of place so it wouldn't surprise me in the short term if we did see a bit of strength come back uh into gold but i think for the next few months uh towards the end of the year keep an eye on the dollar index i think if we do see some dollar index strength there we could see the price of gold under pressure but for me in the short term it's all about this 1850 1860 level so i'm happy to stick with our our long positions for now in the price of gold i've got stops in at 18 20 and um just below 1800 so we'll see if that level does hold over the next couple of weeks if we do see it broken i think we could see a pullback towards 1800 then we'll look at it afresh from there that's it for our latest gold update we'll see how it pans out over the next few weeks but from me david jones and capital.com good luck with your trading for more trading videos just like this please subscribe to our channel
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