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워런 버핏의 2023년 투자 조언을 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 하락장·고인플레이션·금리 상승이 겹친 2023년에는 장기 가치투자자 관점에서 시장 하락을 오히려 매수 기회로 봐야 한다. 시장 하락에 대해: 버핏은 장기 순매수자라면 주가 하락이 유리하다고 본다. 젊은 투자자(약 55세 이하)는 하락을 반기고, 은퇴 후 순매도 단계에서는 높은 주가가 유리하다. 주가 하락에 감정적으로 반응해 파는 것이 가장 큰 실수다. 인플레이션에 대해: 가장 좋은 대응은 자신의 소득 창출력을 높이는 것이다. 수동적 투자로는 가격결정력(해자)을 가진 우량 기업을 장기 보유하는 것이 인플레이션을 상쇄하는 방법이다. 해자의 예로 특허, 통행세 구조, 코카콜라·애플·루이비통 같은 브랜드, 코스트코 등이 언급되며, 코카콜라는 가격 인상 후에도 매출이 늘었다는 사례가 제시된다. 확장성(추가 자본 없이 거래량을 늘릴 수 있는 사업)도 유리한 조건이다. 금리에 대해: 금리는 자산가격에 대한 중력과 같다. 금리 상승기에는 전문 자금이 주식에서 국채로 이동해 주가가 하락하는 경향이 있다. 장기적으로 주식이 채권보다 유리하지만 단기적으로는 예외가 있으므로, 우량 기업의 실적에 집중하고 장기적 관점을 유지해야 한다. 연준의 정책은 통제할 수 없다. 출연자 전망: 2023년에 주식시장 조정, 고인플레이션, 금리 상승이 함께 올 것으로 보며, 시장 하락을 두려워하지 말고 우량 기업을 싸게 사라는 메시지다. 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 목표가나 매매 지시는 없다.
다듬은 글
stocks sell at silly prices from time to time it doesn't take a high IQ to figure out that they're cheap but it does take a temperament that's willing to step up and actually act that there as I'm sure you are all aware is Mr Warren Buffett the 92-year-old Oracle of Omaha he is the CEO of birkshire heway one of the largest companies in the world and the reason most people know his name is because he is the world's best investor every year he releases a letter to his shareholders where he details the returns of Burkshire Hathaway stock since he took the Reigns back in 1965 and get this from then to now he's averaged 20.1% per year while the S&P 500 or the market has only averaged 10 1 12% burk's Total return over that time is 3.6 million per versus 30,000 for the S&P 500 so in this video we're going to take the time to hear some of Warren Buffett's advice that specifically applies to the investing scenario that we all face coming into 2023 so what is that situation well firstly the market is falling it felt 20% in 2022 we also have very high inflation although thankfully that does seem to be trending down at least currently and then finally we have Rising interest rates which are likely going to continue in 2023 based on the FED reaffirming they want to get that inflation rate back down to 2% and they won't stop raising rates until they get there so Chuck that all together with the possibility of a decent sized recession throughout the year and well for investors there's a lot to think about so let's start at the start the first conundrum what do we do as rational long-term value investors when the stock market is pretty solidly trending down let's talk a little bit about the fact that the Market's down almost 800 points this morning yeah concern for you well no that's good for us actually um we're a net buyer of stocks over time and uh just like being a net buyer of food I expect to buy food the rest of my life and I hope that food goes down in price tomorrow when stocks are down we're going to be buying on balance and who wouldn't rather buy it you know a lower price than a higher price people are really strange on that I mean they uh most people most most your listeners are Savers and that means they'll be net buyers and they should want the stock market to go down they should want to buy at a lower price and they have that feeling that they just feel better when stocks are going up Buffett's rational thinking really shines through in this clip if you're a long-term investor trying to build wealth and you're under the age of about you know 55 you actually want the stock market to go down reason being is you should still be a net buyer of stocks you know if you're 70 or if you're 80 then you definitely want the stock market to stay really high because on the flip side chances are you're in the stage of your life where you're a net seller of stocks and I like that Buffett touches on the fact that most people's reaction to a falling Market is really emotional people just feel better buying stocks when the market is going up but in reality you should actually feel better buying at times like right now when the stock market is down so much and this goes back to a very famous investing quote which says the stock market is the only place people run out of the store during a sale think about that when it's Black Friday we're always buying but how come we get scared when Black Friday happens in the stock market for long-term investors we should actually get excited by the stock market falling have a listen to these two clips some people should not on scks at all cuz they just get to set with price fluctuations if you're going to do dumb things because your stock a stock goes down you shouldn't ownn a stock at all what are dumb things selling a stock yeah selling a stock as it goes down I mean if you buy your house at $20,000 and somebody comes along next day and says I'll pay you 15 you don't sell it because the quote's 15 but some people are not actually emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks but I think there more of them would be if you get educated on what you're really buying which is part of a business if you worry about corrections you shouldn't own stocks I mean if you can't take your stock going down it's going to go down sometime if you own a stock so why worry about it I mean the point is to buy something that you like at a price you like and then hold it for 20 years and you should not look at it dayto day if you bought a farm or apartment house you wouldn't get a quote on it every day or every week or every month so it's a terrible mistake to think of stocks as something that bob up and down and you should pay attention to what those Bobs up and down so in summary own great businesses and remember that market Corrections are a normal part of investing and they should actually make you happy not scared so that's investing during a bare Market but what about all this inflation we're seeing prices of materials are rising a lot at the moment making everything more expensive for both us consumers and also for businesses so what do we need to consider during a period where prices across the board are inflating Kane said it many years ago that it it's an invisible tax that only one man in a million really understands the best investment against is to improve your own earning power the best passive investment I think is is is a good business if you own an interest in a good business uh you're very likely to maintain purchasing power no matter what happens to the currency but it's interesting in the United States the value of the dollar since I was born has declined by 94% to 6 cents but things can work out pretty well even during inflationary times I mean if somebody told me when I was born you know that the dollar bill is going to go to 6 cents I might have said you know let me go back I'm not I'm not interested in emerging into that kind of a world but actually it's worked out pretty well so I I have no complaints so that device is really interesting there are a few Concepts to unpack there firstly the best thing you can do during High inflation is to actually improve your own earning power AKA make yourself more valuable to your employer or potential future employers so that your income can actually rise alongside the inflation that you'll feel but beyond that Buffett says the best passive strategy you can Implement to nullify inflation is to find a really high quality business and stay invested in it and Buffett wrote down exactly what he meant by this back in his 1981 shareholder letter he said that the best businesses to own to combat inflation have firstly an ability to increase prices rather easily even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume and then two he said they need to have an ability to ate large dollar volume increases in business often produced more by inflation than by real growth with only minor additional investment of capital so to explain the second Point first Buffett is simply saying that businesses will fare better during inflation if they are scalable AKA they can accommodate a much higher dollar volume of business without needing to sink a lot of money into the company to increase that capacity think for example a social media company versus a car company you know it costs Facebook to nothing really to show you three ads instead of two but for Ford or for Tesla to increase their output by 50% well that would cost a lot in capex and it would take a lot of time to spin up so that's the second point but it's Buffett's first point that is really critical when it comes to investing during inflation and that is that the business needs to have an ability to increase prices without losing market share or unit volume and this simply means that the company has a competitive advantage or aote that gives them pricing power when you go into a drugstore 7-Eleven or something and you say I would like a Snickers bar and the owner says oh I've got something the musk bar at at at 10 cents off the Snickers bar you say give me the Snickers and if he doesn't give you the Snickers you go across the street and buy the stickers it's probably easier to develop a new card just compete with stickers uh but some products have terrific mes and probably Elmer's Glue does you know WD40 people that have an iPhone they want to continue with a product that they've God they want they want the new version it's just easier for them they they learned how to do everything and their Liv spill around it and all of that and mes are very useful Costco has a mode in people's mind I mean you Amazon can raise the price of prime you know 20% and you can't do that unless you've built something within that image of the Amazon Prime that's based on reality that you're going to get a lot for your money and you're going to want to use it and then you can raise prices $20 but if you're selling you know you're selling some commodity Pro product you can't do that you need a mo so there are many different types of Moes out there for example a patent could give a company a moat anytime you have to pay a toll that toll collecting company has a moat as Buffett said powerful Brands like Coca-Cola or apple or Louis Vuitton they all have Moes Costco has built a mo around always having the best prices there are a lot of different ways companies can form a competitive advantage and if it gives them the ability to dictate prices AKA pricing power then they're the best bets to come out on top during an inflationary period as inflation raises their costs and lowers their profits they can simply raise the prices of their end products and their MO should protect them from suffering a drop in sales in fact last year as Coca-Cola raised their prices their sales actually went up so there's some good proof for you so that's how to handle the inflation side of investing in 2023 but finally we also need to talk about the third Big Challenge of investing this year interest rates what can we do when interest rates just keep Rising interest rates you know basically are to uh the value of assets what gravity is to matter you know essentially and if if I could reduce gravity it's pole by about 80% I mean I'd be in the Tokyo Olympics jumping that's really the way to view interest rates like gravity to the stock market when interest rates are very low makes money cheap and easy to access for both consumers and businesses and this means more spending more profits and more growth and that's what we've had basically over the past 10 years or so but now on the flip side we're starting to see Rising interest rates this means of course borrowed money is more expensive to access so business debts become harder to pay off and consumers generally have a lot less to spend so this is a tough environment for businesses to operate and thrive in and often shows in their financial results which then affect their stock prices have a look at this graphic of the past 5 years as you can see interest rates went up in 2018 and the stock market didn't do much at all in 2019 rates started coming down and the market went up and then when Co struck the FED lowered the interest rate to zero and the market basically boomed for two years however in 2022 interest rates went up a lot and the market dropped by 20% so when rates go up stocks generally suffer and this is half caused by businesses performing poor poly and their stock value falling but the other factor to consider with interest rates is of course government bonds so us treasury bills or treasury bonds are generally considered the risk-free return so you give the US Treasury a loan and then they'll pay you back at some point in the future plus interest so when interest rates are low the government honestly they give you bugger all interest but when interest rates rise if you buy the new bonds that they're issuing well those ones will give you a higher interest payment now this this is all very boring to us but it is very interesting to the 80% of the market who are just institutional money managers trying to get a good return for their clients with as little risk as possible so what you find is that when rates rise a lot of professional money flows out of the risky stock market and back into the safety of treasury bills and that selling out of the stock market by the big players causes stock prices to fall this is Buffett talking about exactly this idea in 1982 or three when the long government amount got to 15% a company that was earning 15% on Equity worth no more than Book value under those circumstances because you could buy a 30-year strip of bonds and guarantee yourself for 15% a year and a business that earned 12% was a subpar business then but a business that earns 12% when the Government Bond is 3% is one hell of a business now and that's why they sell for very fancy prices so if a business is giving you 10% returns per year that's pretty good but the closer that risk-free rate gets to 10% the more professional money will sell the business and just buy the Government Bond causing the business's stock price to fall so what do we take away from all this well it's again that we need to be laser focused on our selected businesses performance and we need to stay focused on the longterm because history tells us stocks are generally a better place to be than bonds over a very long period of time that's just the reality but for short periods of time well occasionally they're not so we as stock market investors need to stay focused on the long term so that we can use the depressed stock prices on high quality businesses as opportunities for long-term returns we need to acknowledge that we can't do anything about the Federal Reserve they'll do whatever so instead let's just play the long game and pick up great businesses at great prices while interest rates are really high that's how we tackle a high interest rate environment and overall guys that is Warren Buffett's wisdom around tackling the three big investing issues that we are all going to face in 2023 stock market correction High inflation and Rising interest rates but really hope you got something useful out of this video please leave a like And subscribe obviously a ton of effort goes into our videos we're also trying to hit a million subscribers this year on the channel that's our big goal so if you enjoyed this video you made it this far and you want to see similar videos to this please consider subscribing but apart from that guys thank you very much for watching and I'll see you guys in the next video
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