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결론: 금리·인플레이션 같은 거시 변수는 예측·통제 불가이므로 개별 기업의 실적과 내재가치 대비 할인 여부에 집중해야 하며, 장기 가치투자 원칙을 유지하라는 취지다. [거시 예측 무용론] 피터 린치는 금리, 경기침체, 주식시장 단기 방향을 예측할 수 없다고 주장한다. 1981~82년 20% 프라임레이트·두 자릿수 실업률도 사전에 아무도 예견하지 못했다고 언급했다. [장기 관점과 수익 구조] 기업 실적 성장이 장기 주가를 결정하며, 10~30년 단위로 보면 기업 가치는 상승 가능성이 크다. 단기 2년 방향은 알 수 없다. 장기 주식 투자가 현재 10년물 국채 수익률(약 2%대)보다 유리하다고 봤다. [일본 사례] 일본 닛케이가 5,000에서 15,000 적정 가격을 넘어 40,000까지 오르며 과열 후 장기 침체를 겪었다는 사례를 들어, 과도한 시장 상승은 위험하다고 경고했다. [종목 선택 기준] 경쟁우위, 우수한 경영진, 이해 가능한 사업, 그리고 내재가치 대비 큰 할인(예: 내재가치 50달러 종목이 25달러에 거래)을 중시한다. 시장 하락은 이런 기회를 제공한다. [리스크·보상] 위험보상비율을 따져야 하며, 기대가 이미 주가에 반영된 종목은 완벽한 실행이 없으면 수익이 제한된다. [광고] 영상 스폰서 Simply Wall St 소개가 포함되어 있으며 투자 판단과 직접 관련된 예측 발언은 아니다. [후원·링크 언급] 내재가치 계산 관련 추가 영상 링크를 안내했다.
다듬은 글
Peter Lynch the man the myth the legend he ran the Magellan fund at Fidelity between 1977 and 1990 where he achieved a 29.2 percent annual return the guy is an investing Master he also wrote the book one up on Wall Street which you know at this point is basically required reading for all value investors and on top of that it's also one of the best-selling stock market books of all time now Lynch doesn't really do many interviews but I was watching through a lot of his old commentary recently looking for insights that specifically apply to the market conditions that we see today heading into 2023 and it's really surprised at how much stuff I actually found that was useful for right now so as we know our main issue is running into 2023 are high inflation and Rising interest rates which is causing asset prices like stocks and real estate to suffer and it looks like they're going to be the big issues throughout 2023 as well so with that in mind let's firstly hear Peter Lynch's opinion about investing during times where inflation is up and interest rates are rising and what he says might just surprise you in how perfectly relevant it is for today's environment people understand there's a hundred percent correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened the price of oil whether who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer it has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but anyway it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do right and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on Earth they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first he can influence somebody can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term insurance rates are going to be one year for now two years for now three years he's even surprised how low they are now so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 we had a 20 prime rate 14 unemployment 12 inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about it in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things you know his overarching point is that yes the macro is important yes it influences prices but as an investor it's one of those things that is short-term and you can't control it so if you can't predict it and you can't control it then why should you spend your time thinking about it and this is a trap that many investors have made this year and it's honestly it's fair because it's all that the media has been talking about you know the FED has had another meeting and they've raised rates the Bureau of Labor Statistics was released this month's CPI data blah blah but you can't get caught up in that sort of stuff as an investor you need to be laser focused on each potential investment you're looking to make and judge each opportunity on its own stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates if any interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire it's certainly there's not that many billionaires on the planet they can't be that many people who can pick interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I had a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and 82.
when we had a 20 prime rate with double-digit inflation double-digit digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I studied all this stuff I remember anytime we had the worst recession since the depression what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average year for now would be X that we're gonna have a full-scale recession where interest rates going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that as a classic line by Peter Lynch but it really hammers home the idea that while macroeconomics kind of makes the world go around it's really not what we as long-term value investors should be focused on for example 2007 was the last time interest rates were higher than they are now but imagine not buying a business like Amazon or Apple or Google just because you were scared of interest rates it's obviously a bad call in hindsight but even today with the market down there'll still be tons of investors bailing on their portfolios based on a fear that interest rates could go a lot higher and stocks may suffer as Peter Lynch says what we really need to be doing is focusing on the earnings of each individual company you know how profitable are they are they getting more profitable how much cash could they return to shareholders each year is that growing these are the questions to ask and one resource that can definitely help you in that space is simply Wall Street for the sponsor of today's video so I currently use the simply Wall Street unlimited plan for research searching my videos and with that I get unlimited access to global markets so you can check in on any stock that takes you fancy say apple and then instantly you can scroll through topics such as valuation and future growth or past performance Financial Health Management and a lot more and one thing I'll mention is that if you missed it recently I published a discover collection with simply Wall Street detailing the 10 most bought Stocks by the smart money in Q3 of 2022.
so if you wanted to check that out and do a little bit of digging on some of those big name companies I'll leave that Linked In the description of the pin comment also if you use that link and you did want to sign up you can get 40 off so if you're on the fence definitely check out that offer and always thanks to Simply Wall Street for sponsoring the Channel all right back to Peter Lynch so we shouldn't be focusing on the macro fair enough but what should we do now that the market is down 15 is it a time to wait and see or is it a time to buy at a discount well we had a huge run I mean the market was 4 000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it Round Up to 8 300 in August and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off and it's healthy in fact I mean I'd rather gone down a thousand points than gone to twelve thousand if you look at Japan Japan went from five thousand to fifteen thousand on their Dow it was fairly priced at fifteen thousand on earnings and everything else then it went to forty thousand and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been a recession for five or six years because their Market went up too high the market was too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out isn't that the story the past few years interest rates were at zero and the market just absolutely ripped but now we're seeing the opposite interest rates are up and the stock market is down but Lynch's key Point here is that you shouldn't be concerned about this he even says you know it's healthy because when the market is hot and you do your discounted cash flow analyzes usually the conclusion you come to is that the stock has to execute perfectly over the next five years to actually justify its current valuation but on the other hand when the market drops things start to swing in the long-term value investors favor and that's really what you need to remember when the market goes down we need to stay focused on the long term I may have been right six times out of ten but if I'm right I make a double or triple occasionally it offsets the times you lose 30 or 40 percent in fact you could be right a third of the time as long as you have a lot of good results so when you're short you can only make 90 when you're long you make tenfold or five-fold so I think long is the way to be corporate products have grown about seven or eight percent a year that means they double but including dividends about every 10 years could Drupal every 20 go up Eightfold every 40.
that's the kind of numbers you're interested then a 10-year bond today is a little over two percent so I think the stock market's the best place to be for the next 10 20 30 years the next two years no I've never known what the next two years is going to bring and that's a very good point you know in the next two years nobody knows nobody I really wish I could get that point across to more people you know in the next two years the stock market could go up or it could go down and there's no way to know which way it's headed but over 10 20 30 years the likely outcome becomes much clearer businesses get more productive they earn more or they increase their valuations and stock prices go up we can take a coin out and flip it I have no idea what the next thousand point is going to do the next 6 000 points is going to be up the next 14 000 points can be up the next 20 000 points can be up but you don't know where the next thousand is going to be up nobody does and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now it'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you could rely on Microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago Staples didn't exist 20 years Federal Express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along 20 years ago that's what makes Amgen has two one billion dollar drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago new companies that come along that's what makes this country work so that's the game stay focused on the long term and watch for those companies that pop up on your radar that look really solid the ones that you understand the ones that have a competitive Advantage the ones that have really well-oiled management teams and then lastly and most importantly the ones that offer a steep discount to intrinsic value and this has been the problem over the past few years unfortunately there have been many wonderful businesses out there but basically all of them have been at really high prices so much so that they really did need to execute perfectly over the next 10 years for their valuation to be justified this is Peter Lynch talking to exactly that scenario you say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you see it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to see yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much I'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stockshot we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong maybe I'll lose 30 40 that's a favor ratio if you say if I'm right the Stock's not gonna go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know okay that's really going to be the secret to investing well in 2023 watching these valuations you know what we're looking for are companies that are wonderful but also valued low enough that the risk reward is in our favor for example if you calculate that a stock is going to grow at you know 15 per year for the next 10 years and if that happens you think right now the shares are worth 50 bucks well if the stock sits at 50 then that's an annoying spot to be in if you buy the shares the company has to execute perfectly to make you a return what we're looking for are the stocks that you've calculated to be worth fifty dollars today that are actually selling for 25.
that's what Peter Lynch was saying and for those wondering how you do that well I'll actually leave a link on the screen right now to an in-depth video on calculating intrinsic value I would go over it here but it's a very long topic so please check out that video if you actually wanted to learn that process but long story short we're finding wonderful companies that are valued well below intrinsic value and that's when we seize the opportunity of this Market weakness all these public companies out there here's the company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to see some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do not it's like the one from overpriced to fairly Place sometimes fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale so that is it guys we're looking for companies on sale ones that you know were fairly priced and have now dropped into margin of safety territory thanks to the movement of the broader Market the one thing we don't do is get too deep in the weeds of macro economics and end up being spooked out of our tried and true long-term value investing strategies anyway guys that will just about do us for today thanks very much for watching the video and subscribe to the channel if you would like to see more but guys that will just about do us for today and I'll see you guys in the next video
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