저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
저거래량 상승장이 이어지며 강세 추세가 유지된다는 진단. SPY는 411 지지·414 저항, QQQ는 316 기준 312/322 갭 시나리오, 다우는 340 돌파 시 346-350 목표. 아마존은 109 목표 도달 후 200일선 회복 전까지 방어적 대응 권고. 테슬라는 167 위에서 약세 추세로 146/177 갭 메우기 가능성 언급. 엔비디아는 264-280 박스권으로 262 이탈 시 약세 전환 제시. 비트코인은 27,000 지지 이탈 시 25,000 하락 가능성. 전반적으로 단기 방향은 강세 편향.
다듬은 글
The stock market continues to experience a low-volume rise, and now we have the results of the big tech companies just around the corner. First, let's take a look at the S&P 500 SPY ETF. So, let's open this chart and see what's happening in the market today. Very good. Very good. Today the SPY rose 0.11% and we had a very exciting day of extremely flat price action .
Keep in mind that this is exactly what we're aiming for with this low-volume rise. I've been mentioning that we didn't need high volume to go up in the stock market for a couple of weeks now, and here we are still seeing this low-volume rise. This is the behavior you get in an uptrend when everyone tries to predict a peak , anticipate the next crash, and short the market.
They will see the absence of sales and will get a very low volume upward movement , which is known as that inertia rise. So, as long as we have this upward trend with all this bearish sentiment that keeps calling for a crash, the path of least resistance will continue to be upward. As you can see, the 20-day moving average is now extremely close to the price action and will be right here, near this critical support at 411, in the coming days.
Therefore, the 411 level of the SPY remains a very critical support level. We could shift to a risk-averse stance if we close below that level, but as long as we're above it, we're likely to keep going up. We still need to break that critical resistance at 414, and that will look like a weekly breakout if we manage to close above that level.
So, they are either holding cash waiting for a breakout from this range or sticking with swing trades in the direction of the trend, which remains bullish. So, please remain patient and manage your risk around the support at 411 and the resistance at 414. Remember, this is a very low-volume market, so don't expect any dramatic moves, and I would n't be surprised at all if we continue trading sideways before the FOMC meeting next week.
On the Nasdaq 100, the QQQs are down 0.21% today and we're closing right above a very critical support level where these moving averages are clustering around 316. That's not a critical support level, but it's relevant because we have a confluence of moving averages in this area, and it's possible that when the moving averages cluster, we'll see a big move from them in the next few days.
So there is a good chance that the triple Qs will push towards the support at 312 or towards the price target at the gap of 322, using this 316 level as a launching pad, whether from resistance or support. Therefore, whether the price is above or below 316 will be relevant, because we will either move to 322 from 316 or drop to 312.
The trend remains bullish as long as we are above the 20-day moving average, but as you can see, we are very close to breaking below it, which could mean we will drop to retest the breakout between 311 and 312 or close that gap at 308. Keep in mind that even if we drop to close the gap at 308, we could still rise to close the gap at 322 .
Therefore, even if we go down and find support, we can still bounce and close the gap to the upside, or we could bounce immediately from the zone and close the gap at once. So the only thing that will tell you which of these scenarios will play out is whether the price reaction stays above or below 316.
That's why I would watch the price action at that level. There's really no reason to become overly bearish while we have these upward trends, especially when looking at the S&P 500. The Dow Jones is up 0.19% today, and the price action is still above all moving averages. And as you can see from the moving averages, we continue to have a strong upward trend.
I talked about this in the weekly analysis of the weekend chart, where the Dow Jones looked ready to break out and start moving from that sideways consolidation. So, on the daily chart, wait for that break above 340, and we should start moving up toward the 346-350 range. Remember, these uptrends mean the path of least resistance remains upward until we see price action break the critical support, and on the Dow, that level will be 334.
On the Russell 2000 IWM ETF, we're down 0.07% today with a doji candle just above the rising 20-day daily moving average at 176, and we're still finding resistance at 179. This is a $3 range, and a break above this range will likely lead to a gap closing. So, a break above 179 means we'll close the gap above 181, and a break above 176 means we'll likely fill the gap at 172.
The Bollinger Bands are tightening, and we have critical resistance just above. So , if we see a breakout, we could see a very strong upward move, with the bullish catalyst being a break above 179 and 181, and the bearish catalyst being a break below the support at 176. The ARK ETF is down 1.36% today, and it is at risk of returning to a downtrend.
If we break below this support line at 37, we will validate this triple top, which could take us back towards 32; We are very close to a breakup. We just need to break the support at 37 and 36, and then we will probably continue in the market's bearish trend in the ARK ETF. For that reason, don't become bullish until we can break through this critical resistance zone at 40.5.
The VIX rose 0.72% today, and during the day it attempted to break above 18 , where the 20-day moving average is located , but it was rejected and the VIX plummeted again, closing below all moving averages and continuing its downward trend. This is exactly the low-fear behavior you expect to see in an uptrend, and that's precisely why we have a low VIX, because we're still maintaining an uptrend in the S&P 500.
In Bitcoin, we're currently down around 0.62%, and Bitcoin is trading right above the support zone at 27,000, which is also the rising 50-day EMA. If we break the support at 27,000, we should drop to 25,000 and we really shouldn't be bullish if we break that support because we could fall much further.
If they are waiting to position themselves upwards, I would wait for a break above 29,000 or the 20-day moving average . In Google stock, we're up 0.53% today as Google continues its upward trend, with the price action above all moving averages, maintaining that trend, and with gaps to fill at 106.84 and just below 110.
There's a good chance we'll at least close the gap near 107 by tomorrow, and we have earnings after the close, so it will depend on the earnings report whether we can move beyond this range or if we'll drop back down towards the support at 100. So, if you own Google stock, keep in mind that earnings are just around the corner, and your current risk level will be near 104 to 105, and if we break that, we'll likely drop back down towards 100 to 102.
As for Amazon stock, we're down 0.7% today, and Amazon reached our price target that we expected to see before earnings, which was that gap closing at 109. With that price target met and... Being overextended outside the daily Bollinger Band, it was time to secure profits, and that's exactly what traders did today, closing back below the 200-day moving average.
So, with profits just around the corner and having already reached our target price, I see no reason to take risks in Amazon stock until it can start closing above the 200-day moving average. Yes, it is still in an upward trend, but we are below the 200-day moving average and have reached the price target, so it is time to be defensive and trade intelligently; This is really a dead trade until after the profits.
If you want to maintain long positions in Amazon, that's fine, but you should manage your risk at the support levels of 104 and 102. In Microsoft stock, we're down 1.4% today, closing the gap down at 281 and breaking below the 20-day moving average at 285. Therefore, we might close the gap at 276 and test the support zone around 274.
If you're hoping to turn bullish on Microsoft, you really need to break above 285, because due to this rejection at 290, we might drop to close gaps before moving higher. Another resistance level to watch will be around 283. In Nvidia stock, we are down 0.28% today and trading across the range from support at 267 to resistance at 274, and are starting to close below the 20-day moving average.
This is really just a sideways trading range between the lows at 264 and the highs at 280. Therefore, you don't really have a trade until we break out of this range, unless you trade between the support and resistance within this range. We won't turn bearish on Nvidia until it breaks below the support at 262, and then we'll probably go down to 242, but we need confirmation of price action breaking the support.
The next bullish breakout would be above 274 and 280, and we still have that price target up there at 282.5 . Regarding Tesla shares, today we fell 1.53% and Tesla bounced off that 160 support level, as it was too far out of the lower Bollinger Band. So this is still, in a way, just a dead cat bounce .
We have a gap to fill at 146 and another at 177, and it's impossible to know which one will be filled first. Normally, the direction of the trend is the gap I'll pay attention to, and we're in a downtrend as long as we trade below 167. Therefore, there's a good chance we'll move down to fill the gap.
But if it's too obvious or we're too oversold, don't be surprised if we see a small dead cat bounce before we go to fill the gap to the downside. So it's possible to have an impulsive bounce from here to 170 and still drop to close that gap at 146. Therefore, if you're trading Tesla and you're short, you need to manage the risk very well down here, because shorting at the support level is basically selling at the bottom, and that's very risky.
Your risk level for short positions is right here, at 167 and 173, and obviously if we break that resistance, we'll be looking to close the gap above 177. As for Apple stock, we're up 0.2% today with a nice bounce off the 20-day rising moving average. We remain in an uptrend and above the risk level of 163 and 165, meaning we could still reach our price target before the gains at 169 and the gap filling at 171.
There's no reason to be bearish on Apple as long as it's uptrend above support, so manage your risk right here at 163. In the financial sector, we're down 0.24% today and still trying to consolidate that uptrend, but we need to break back above the 200-day moving average just below 34. The industrial sector is up 0.24 % today, continuing its uptrend, but still needs to break that resistance at 101.5.
The healthcare sector rose 0.56% today, resuming its upward trend and surpassing 134, so it seems we will try to reach new daily highs in the coming trading days. The energy sector rose 1.53% today with a very strong rebound from the 50-day EMA, and we now have an upward trend, so you can remain optimistic as long as we are above this support zone at 84.6.
Returning to the S&P 500, this is a bull market with very little volume, which means the path of least resistance remains upward in the absence of sellers, and we have plenty of gains from big tech stocks just around the corner . Keep in mind that the market has already priced in almost every possible scenario, so it's much more important to simply follow the chart and do what the price action and trend tell you.
If you think you're smarter than the market, the market will quickly humble you , so get used to doing only what the chart tells you to do. And at this moment, the chart continues to indicate that we are above a critical support level with an upward trend, so it remains a bullish-looking chart. If you want to , join us on ing alert service called Bank Trade Alerts, which sends you all your buy and sell alerts directly via email and text message, and only trades the TQQQ and SQQQ ETFs.
Discover how to join the links in this video's description. So, thank you all for watching the video. I hope they're killing it in this market and, as always, I'll see them in the next episode.
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