저자: TheStocksChannel진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500·나스닥 등 주요 지수가 단기 박스권에 갇혀 있다고 진단하며, 상단 저항 돌파 전까지 강세 베팅을 자제하고 가격 흐름(price action)에 따라 매매하라고 강조. 하락 시 갭 메우기 가능성을 여러 종목에서 언급하고, 테슬라는 실적 쇼크 후 146 갭 메우기 가능성을 제시. 애플은 실적 전 목표가 언급. 비트코인은 28,000 지지 여부를 주시. 변동성지수(VIX)는 20 돌파 전까지 크게 튀지 않을 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
today the stock market went lower is it the time for the Bears to strik spy was down 0.55 and I have to ask you all a very simple question why is it that most of you love the negativity and you want this Market to crash there's still so many people calling for a stock market crash like it's just something that is supposed to continue to happen over and over just because we had a bear market last year statistically speaking stock market crashes are very rare and very difficult to predict but there's still so many people trying to predict one and trying to call for one let alone trying to perfectly time one let me know where that obsession is coming from and let me know why you love digesting all of that negativity and negative news instead of just simply following what the price action and Trend are telling you so on this channel we simply let the price action do all the talking and in order for this bull Trend to roll over in die we need to see spy breaking down below these critical support zones which is going to start with spy 411 you can see from the price action we did not close below that level and we did bounce off of the rising 13 EMA even though we are starting to close below the 5 EMA so there are definitely some warning signs you need to pay attention to remember critical resistance is 414 so you have no business being bullish until we break out above that level never get bullish at resistance and never get bearish at support and we are very close to support so be very careful if you're getting overly bearish once we break 411 we need to come down here and break down below 407 and then we are officially losing this bull Trend and we are very likely going to roll over and die which means we're at least coming down to backfill some of these gaps do not guess when those gaps are going to get filled wait for the price action to roll over and lose the bull Trend and then you can trade in the direction of the downtrend on the way to go fill those gaps and you're going to have a much simpler time trying to guess tops and predict crashes and guess when things are going to happen because yes it is guessing is not how you're going to ever be a successful Trader so believe me when I tell you learn to follow price action and learn to understand when the price action is guiding you on the direction of the trade and right now there is no guidance from the price action you are essentially in a trading range between 411 and 414 until we get the breakout and then you're only going to get a few dollar move after that so it's still going to be a very sideways looking Market if you're expecting a crash of minus 20 or a bull run of plus 15 percent you're in the wrong Market this is going to be very sideways and very choppy until we get a very clean break out of this range remember if you zoom out which I do suggest a lot of you do the market has been going absolutely nowhere so make sure you have realistic expectations and a lot of the money being made right now is through very small move trades and having a very disciplined trading strategy that consists of buying that supportable Trend and selling at resistance and not getting greedy no knowing when to lock your profits because you never know when you're going to get rejected from resistance so lock those profits and wait for a break above resistance we've been absolutely crushing this Market in the stocks Channel Discord because we are simply following price action with a very objective approach so watch that resistance at 4 14 and that support at 411 and then if we break 411 we're going to 407 and if we break 414 we're going to 417.
on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were down 0.76 percent today and we're closing right on top of what could b I consider the critical support the breakout zone of the daily highs down here between 311 and this previous daily low at 3 13. you can also manage a risk up here at 315 which is perfectly fine but do keep in mind we can still break below 315 and still find critical support just a couple of dollars lower however if we break that critical support Zone we are likely losing the bull Trend and rolling over which means we're likely coming back down to 307 to 308.
the bull breakout at this point is going to be the brain break above 319 for The Gap close at 322 and the price Target at 327. on the Dow Jones we were down 0.31 today and the Dow Jones also closed down below the 5 EMA but we have the bull Trend and we have critical support down here at 334 so we really need to see critical support getting lost from the price action to go any lower below 334 we will have that Gap default at 329 but again don't assume we're going brake support let the price action prove it the next Bull breakout will be above 340 and then we'll likely start running towards 346.
on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 0.52 today and the Russell 2000 is now stuck in a very clear range between 176 and about 179 and we're going to get a break of that range in the very near future we're not getting bullish until we can break out of the resistance which is above 181 and we also have a gap to fill around that zone as well so if you're going to pick a direction in the small caps it is likely down until we get a breakout above 181 and then we are likely going to have a very substantial bull rally so wait for the break of 181 or at least the break of 1 179 and to the downside we need to break support at 176 and then 173 and then we will likely go fill the Gap at 172 and retest 3.78 today as Tesla one of the top Holdings got absolutely slammed today so we are getting this lower low breakdown towards support at 37.
remember below 37 we have a valid double top and Below 36 we have a valid triple top which could take us all the way down to fill the Gap below 32 so you have no business being bullish in the ark ETF until we break critical resistance at 40.5 on the vix we were up 4.32 today as the vix is getting a little bit of a dead cat balance after many consecutive red days in a row and there's really no volatility in this market until we see the vix getting all the way back above 20.
so this is going to be more indicative of a bull Trend while the vix is trading at these lower levels there's a lot of bears saying that this is bearish and it means the vix is going absolutely Skyrocket out of here and that is absolutely BS there is no way for you to know the vix is going to 30 or 40 wait for the vix to at least break above 20 and that'll tell us the vix is starting to spike and we could see more volatility look at the vix behavior all year long how much time we spent below 20 that is exactly what you typically see in a bull trend on bitcoin we're currently down 2.13 and Bitcoin is coming back down to the breakout Zone at 28 000 which is completely normal after a bull breakout to get a retest however the retest means we need to bounce from this support if we don't bounce from 28 000 we're likely coming back down to 27 000 and Below 27 000 we're starting to lose the bull Trend so if you're a Bitcoin bull you need to be careful because once these things start to roll over and die it typically moves very quickly which means we could flush all the way back down towards 25 000.
if we Bounce from 28 000 that will look more bullish but wait for that break above 29 400 and then we will likely start pushing up to about 31 000. on Google stock we are up 1.07 today with relative strength in Google and still fighting resistance right here right around 106 and we still have that Gap to fill out one of 684 there's a great chance that Gap is going to fill before earnings which is just in a few more days and then we also have the Gap up there right around 110.
manager risk at critical support between 100 and 102 and you can stay bullish as long as we're above that support on Amazon stock we were down point four seven percent today with a rejection around this resistance at 104 and we're really going to see some type of blue skies push higher once we start closing above 104.
so wait for that confirmation of that breakout and then we'll likely go straight to 107 and then the Gap filled just below 109 and possibly even as high as 115 but we need to break that very critical resistance you can stay bullish as long as we're above 100 to 102 and if we break that we're likely going to much lower prices which could include going all the way back down towards 94.
on Microsoft stock we were down 0.81 today closing right on top of the rising 20 daily moving average of support at 285 and we still have critical support below at 283. we lose these two support zones we're likely going to fill the gaps at 281 and 276 and the next Bull breakout is going to be the break of 290 for that price Target at 296.
on Nvidia stock we were down 2.96 today with another rejection from that previous daily high right around 280 around 270. below 270 it's going to look like we're double topping and rolling over and it could be the end of this bull Trend which means we need to go through a correction that could take us all the way back down towards 242.
however I suggest waiting until Nvidia breaks below very critical support at 262 before getting bearish because that is a very strong support level if we get any bull breakouts we're looking for 282.5 and if we somehow break that level we're likely going straight to 300. on Tesla stock we were down 9.75 today as Tesla was the man of the hour today after an abysmal earnings report and it absolutely got crushed today it gapped down below support at 167 and it's well on its way towards the next support just below 160 and then below that we have the gap for at 146.
there were some people saying I was too focused on that gap for that 146 however we know gaps typically get filled and we know Tesla wasn't a short-term downtrend and now you can see why it's in important to be aware of those gaps if you stayed bullish on Tesla this whole time you've been having a horrible time and it's going to only get worse if we get rejected from this resistance now we are a little oversold and there is the possibility of a dead cat balance so watch resistance at 167 and 173 and then above that it is possible to fill the Gap at 177.
however we also have gas to the downside and nobody knows which gaps are going to fill first so go in the direction of the trend and this is currently lower highs and lower lows which is a downtrend that means you should be very cautious buying Tesla long so be very disciplined and if you're already underwater on Tesla because you've been ignoring the technicals that's just a constant reminder that 8 percent as apple is still looking very strong with e strong bull Trend and still above this recent support right around 165 and it's very likely we are going to reach our price targets at 169 and the Gap foot at 171 before earnings remember so goes Apple typically goes the entire Market because it it is a huge big Tech name and it's going to move the entire index however that could work in both directions so if Apple does lose this support Zone at 163 we will be looking for that Gap fill to the downside right around 158.
on the financials we were down point three percent today trying to hold right around this resistance just above 33 and any rejection from here will take us to fill some gaps to the downside the Industrials were down 0.18 today still closing above all the moving averages and building up a bull Trend but we have resistance just above right above 101.
on the healthcare sector we were down point four one percent today and this really just looks like a pullback within a bull Trend and we now do have the bull Trend with all the moving averages we just need to break back over resistance at 134. the energy sector was down 0.88 today bouncing off of the rising 50 EMA and we're also going to have that 20 simple moving average Crossing back over very soon but we do have this Gap to fill to the downside if we do lose support at 84 look for The Gap fill just below 83.
so jumping back over the S P 500 remember there's a lot of negativity and a lot of bearish sentiment a lot of people calling for stock market crashes this year and I just want to constantly remind you that stock market crashes are very rare and you need to be very careful on how much of that information you digest practice looking at the chart looking at the price action and looking at the current Trend and then just simply manage a risk and make a trade plan around what the chart is giving you if you go get all of these baked in biases of where these stocks should be going or when the stock market's going to crash or when the next recession is you are going to be a much worse Trader and not a better Trader if you really study what trading is it's about managing risk and having a very disciplined approach which means you need to know exactly when you enter and exit trades and you should know that before you even enter them draw up a trade plan if we slice through critical support and start to crash and also drop the trade plan if we start to break resistance and climb higher and then trade the trade plan that the price action gives you if we break resistance you have the trade plan for the bullish scenario and if we break support you have the trade plan for the Bears scenario you're only looking in One Direction you're going to get blindsided by the market so stay objective and to Triple q and a i]
Comments 0