원문 보기
oh man hey everyone meet kevin here this market is a crazy it's nuts and no i don't mean crazy and nuts that on january 23rd i said in a video the market will likely fall in an additional 20 i was wrong it fell an additional 23 before bottoming out no that's not crazy it's just mostly lucky but what's crazy is that on one hand you've got companies like robin hood amazon and tesla cutting jobs and google and facebook freezing hiring and threatening layoffs we're technically in a recession at least if you use the technical definition of a recession and not the political definition of a recession and company earnings while are coming in a little bit slower are still mostly above expectations leading to large rebounds and stocks like coinbase up nearly 100 from the time kathy woods sold she literally dumped about uh 1.3 million shares and it pretty much doubled since then the tesla up over 50 from its lows in the last two months and companies like uber sofa doordash and cloud fire were all jumping 10 to 30 after their earnings even companies that miss earnings like airbnb are seeing their shy prices just in general rise after short declines and yet at all this might seem bad we still have an unemployment report that came out this morning that literally came in twice as hot as expected with more hiring than expected by the tune of a two-fold a prior revision up in the amount of jobs we created so we're getting still more hiring in an unemployment rate that's actually falling yet things are supposed to be bad so this is really really weird and kind of leaves us with this feeling of like a lack of direction are we going up are we going down what's going on and what are the two freaking warnings that we gotta watch out for well we're gonna talk about those just a side note i have conducted research that rivals the research that twitter has done into how many bots they have on the their platform and uh this research involves the youtube bots gods mods buds and everything telling me that maybe my youtube channel will finally grow and people will click the subscribe button again if i just post fewer higher quality videos and skip live streams therefore unfortunately i had to make the decision based on well youtube literally sending me a text message going you're an idiot and once again flip flop on live streams and i am bringing the market open live streams in-house to course members only daily at six a.m if you want to get lifetime access to those courses on building your wealth check out the coupon code and you also get access to not only the recorded lectures but the updated lectures private live streams with me and you'll be getting a first dibs to invest in the company that i'm launching soon many details to come on that of course now boom that might have been a mouthful but let's talk about warning number one warning number one is all about data folks between now and the next federal reserve meeting on september 21st when we're likely to see another interest rate hike the federal reserve has told us to watch for two major data points number one jobs we have two jobs reports between now and when the federal reserve is likely going to raise rates again august 5th and september 2nd and we have cpi readings coming out august 10th and september 13th and let me just put it very simply if these readings are bad the market is going to have to price in a higher likelihood of the federal reserve giving us a little bit more of a spanking because what the federal reserve is trying to do is drive interest rates up so that people and businesses spend less money and feel less rich the problem is this is all going to get worse if the data that comes in again august 5th september 2nd august 10th and september 13th jobs and cpi if that data comes in hot which could mean the economy is still overheated or doing very very well and companies and businesses and people are still spending money like crazy then the fed's going to have to talk more dirty to us and it's going to drive the market down because the fed is mad that even though the fed is like we need everybody to stop spending as much money everybody keeps spending money in fact according to the economist most people when asked about the economy say the economy is bleak and doing terribly but most people when they're asked about their own personal finances say they're doing great way better than they did in 2019 even with higher gas prices and higher energy costs people feel great about their own personal finances and their net wealth is substantially higher in many cases than what it was in 2019 right before the pandemic so what does this tell us about watching data well first again this morning we had a crazy jobs report we were expecting 250 000 jobs to come in and what did we ended up getting well we ended up with 528 000 jobs created that is over two times that is an example of a hot reading and immediately the nasdaq went from positive 20 basis points to negative one percent boom instantaneously after that hot jobs report came out but folks that's just one out of four data sets that we have coming up the next is the cpi report which comes out on august 10th where we're going to be looking for inflationary pressures and i'll tell you even the jobs report that just came out here august 5th didn't help us at all with job or with inflationary expectations because we had an average hourly earnings expectation of 0.3 percent that is wages potentially went up 0.3 month over month we missed that they actually went up 0.5 which means rather than seeing an annualized rate of three point six percent for job wage growth it actually came in at six percent annualized that's bad again telling the fed we got twice as many jobs and wages are going up faster than expected this is double bad on top of that we got the year-over-year measure which was expected to be 4.9 coming in at 5.2 percent so we literally got three hot pieces of data in the august 5th report but hey we get to look forward to august 10th next which is when that cpi report comes in the cbi report consumer price index this is how we measure inflation generally the federal reserve uses a similar one called pce but we generally watch cpi in in the public eye that rhymes uh and here's what's wild in the last inflation report we had a month over month increase of prices of 1.3 percent however in the august 10th report we're expecting that inflation is only going to move up on a month-over-month basis by 0.2 now that initially sounds good because it's like yeah elon musk is right inflation's going down inflation's transitory inflation's going to go down which i have to say i believe that at some point inflation will go down as well but just because i believe inflation will go down at some point doesn't mean that i can lie to myself or anyone else and say that we don't have a problem here well this jobs report this morning was a problem and what i personally believe is we've got a big problem with the cpi report coming up because if the expectation is that inflation on a month-over-month basis is going to be 0.2 percent and that on a year-over-year basis it's going to go down to 8.7 percent personally i think there's a really good chance we're going to miss at least one of those numbers that means we might see inflation on a month-over-month basis come in at 0.4 percent or 0.5 and even though that's lower inflation than what we've been used to because last month prices went up 1.2 percent it's still going to be higher than expectations it could drive the market down so you could literally see the market go down after august 5th jobs the market go down after august 10th cpi and then we repeat the process again for jobs on september 2nd and september 13th and so you have to be very careful of these dangers but you also have to be careful of the very next danger and this very next danger is one that is probably the most critical but first message from our sponsor click up but first i want to thank today's sponsor click up as you guys may know by now i'm a pretty busy guy and keeping up with everything going on through a bunch of different tools and project management platforms can sometimes end up costing me more time than it says and it's really frustrating thankfully today's sponsor is click up which is a perfect all-in-one solution to finally stay on top of all the things that actually help save you time click up is a work management platform whose features can flex to all of your needs whether you're building product roadmaps launching a marketing campaign or supporting clients from all around the globe click up is a fully customizable platform to help you organize and get productive with alignment and visibility my favorite part of click up is that it allows me to check on updates of any of my business ventures from a single place again easily organized i can check on my tasks my projects my chats my docs my goals my spreadsheets and more best of all it's great for scaling since click up can support any team size from one person to over a thousand people so join the over 800 000 highly productive teams using click up today and make sure to use code meet kevin to get 15 off click ups massive unlimited plan for a year which means you can reclaim your time for under five dollars per month again use code meet kevin at checkout when you use my link below in the description with that said let's get back to the video now folks the second big danger and this one'is chart might seem overwhelming let's keep it very very simple basically if you go all the way back to the post-war era which is like the 40s and 50s you're going to find that there have been very very few dates or periods of time where the stock market has gone from negative seven percent on the s p 500 to positive seven percent the next month and folks on screen here are the returns that you could have potentially seen if you were in the market at the time one month out three months out six months out and 12 months out in time now what's wild about this is we just had one of those occur on july 29th we went from negative seven percent in june to positive seven percent actually more than positive seven percent in july and that sets up the odds that we could if we're at all average right here see some substantial returns in the stock market over the next one three six and 12 months and this sets up the potential danger that combines with danger number one danger number one says if we continue to get bad reports we could end up seeing some of these right here see these two instances where we actually had red numbers where on the one month we fell five percent or on the three month we fell three percent that could happen again we could see another test of some of the lows that earnings right now are really affirming if you actually go and look at the nasdaq for example via qqq you could see that we hit a beautiful bottom on june 16th and we've retraced over 38 percent from then but with some of these reports coming in hot or expected to come in hot we could quickly see a retracement not just down to the 318 level for the nasdaq but maybe even down back to 299 or retest that bottom at 268 but based on this chart we should probably be anticipating green if we hold and get in and that really sets up the big next danger which is not being in this market yes there can still be bad news but all signs are pointing to over time even if it takes a little longer than expected inflation's probably going to go down this economy's still killing it earnings are holding up spending's holding up jobs are holding up and yeah that means the fed's going to talk a little more dirty to us but all it's going to do is give us more of a buying opportunity and no i don't just mean a buying opportunity to get in with me on my series a or to get in on the courses on building your wealth and those market open live streams which we're going to do for course members use that coupon code down below but buying opportunity in the market and folks if you found this video helpful do me a favor hit the like button share the video and subscribe because we gotta get back to grow you
Comments 0