저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
8월 5일 고용지표가 예상보다 강하게 나와 나스닥이 반락했으나, 기업 실적·소비·고용은 견조하다고 본다. 8/10 CPI와 9월 지표가 뜨거우면 연준 긴축 우려로 시장이 추가 하락할 수 있다. 다만 S&P500 월간 급등 이후 역사적으로 수익률이 양호했던 점을 근거로 조정 시 매수 기회로 본다. 나스닥은 318, 299, 268 지지선 재테스트 가능성을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
oh man, hey everyone, Meet Kevin here. This market is crazy. It's nuts, and no, I don't mean crazy and nuts in a bad way. On January 23rd I said in a video that the market would likely fall another 20%. I was wrong. It fell another 23% before bottoming out. No, that's not crazy, it's just mostly lucky. What's crazy is that on one hand you've got companies like Robinhood, Amazon, and Tesla cutting jobs, and Google and Facebook freezing hiring and threatening layoffs. We're technically in a recession, at least if you use the technical definition of a recession and not the political one. Meanwhile company earnings, while coming in a little slower, are still mostly above expectations, leading to large rebounds. Stocks like Coinbase are up nearly 100% from the time Cathie Wood sold. She literally dumped about 1.3 million shares, and it pretty much doubled since then. Tesla is up over 50% from its lows in the last two months, and companies like Uber, SoFi, DoorDash, and Cloudflare all jumped 10 to 30% after their earnings. Even companies that missed earnings, like Airbnb, are seeing their share prices rise in general after short declines.
And yet, as bad as all this might seem, we still have an unemployment report that came out this morning that literally came in twice as hot as expected, with more hiring than expected, to the tune of a twofold upward revision in the number of jobs we created. So we're still getting more hiring, with an unemployment rate that's actually falling. Yet things are supposed to be bad. This is really, really weird, and it leaves us with a feeling of a lack of direction. Are we going up? Are we going down? What's going on, and what are the two freaking warnings we've got to watch out for? We're going to talk about those.
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Now, that might have been a mouthful, but let's talk about warning number one. Warning number one is all about data, folks. Between now and the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 21st, when we're likely to see another interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve has told us to watch for two major data points. Number one, jobs. We have two jobs reports between now and when the Fed is likely to raise rates again: August 5th and September 2nd. And we have CPI readings coming out August 10th and September 13th.
Let me put it very simply. If these readings are bad, the market is going to have to price in a higher likelihood of the Fed giving us a little more of a spanking, because what the Fed is trying to do is drive interest rates up so that people and businesses spend less money and feel less rich. The problem is this is all going to get worse if the data that comes in on August 5th, September 2nd, August 10th, and September 13th (jobs and CPI) comes in hot. That could mean the economy is still overheated or doing very, very well, and companies, businesses, and people are still spending money like crazy. Then the Fed is going to have to talk more dirty to us, and it's going to drive the market down, because the Fed is mad. Even though the Fed is saying "we need everybody to stop spending as much money," everybody keeps spending money.
In fact, according to the economist, most people when asked about the economy say it's bleak and doing terribly, but most people when asked about their own personal finances say they're doing great, way better than they did in 2019. Even with higher gas prices and higher energy costs, people feel great about their own personal finances, and their net wealth is substantially higher in many cases than it was in 2019, right before the pandemic.
So what does this tell us about watching data? First, again, this morning we had a crazy jobs report. We were expecting 250,000 jobs to come in, and what did we end up getting? We ended up with 528,000 jobs created. That's over two times the expectation, an example of a hot reading, and immediately the Nasdaq went from positive 20 basis points to negative 1%, instantaneously after that hot jobs report came out.
But folks, that's just one of the four data sets coming up. The next is the CPI report, which comes out August 10th, where we're going to be looking for inflationary pressures. Even the jobs report that just came out August 5th didn't help us at all with job or inflation expectations. We had an average hourly earnings expectation of 0.3%, meaning wages potentially went up 0.3% month over month. We missed that. They actually went up 0.5%, which means rather than an annualized rate of 3.6% for wage growth, it came in at 6% annualized. That's bad. Again, it tells the Fed we got twice as many jobs and wages are going up faster than expected. That's double bad. On top of that, the year-over-year measure was expected to be 4.9% and came in at 5.2%. So we literally got three hot pieces of data in the August 5th report.
But hey, we get to look forward to August 10th, when the CPI report comes in. The CPI, the Consumer Price Index, is how we measure inflation. Generally the Federal Reserve uses a similar one called PCE, but in the public eye we generally watch CPI, which rhymes. Here's what's wild: in the last inflation report we had a month-over-month increase in prices of 1.3%. However, in the August 10th report we're expecting inflation to move up only 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. That initially sounds good, like, yeah, Elon Musk is right, inflation's transitory, inflation's going down. I have to say I believe that at some point inflation will go down as well. But just because I believe inflation will go down at some point doesn't mean I can lie to myself or anyone else and say we don't have a problem here. This morning's jobs report was a problem.
What I personally believe is that we've got a big problem with the CPI report coming up. If the expectation is that inflation on a month-over-month basis will be 0.2%, and that on a year-over-year basis it will fall to 8.7%, personally I think there's a really good chance we'll miss at least one of those numbers. That could mean we see month-over-month inflation come in at 0.4% or 0.5%. Even though that's lower inflation than we've been used to, since prices went up 1.2% last month, it's still going to be higher than expectations, and it could drive the market down. So you could literally see the market go down after the August 5th jobs report, go down after the August 10th CPI, and then we repeat the process for jobs on September 2nd and CPI on September 13th. You have to be very careful of these dangers. But you also have to be careful of the very next danger, which is probably the most critical.
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Folks, the second big danger. This chart might seem overwhelming, so let's keep it very simple. If you go all the way back to the post-war era, the 40s and 50s, you'll find there have been very few dates or periods where the stock market went from negative 7% on the S&P 500 to positive 7% the next month. On screen are the returns you could have potentially seen if you were in the market at the time: one month out, three months out, six months out, and 12 months out.
What's wild is we just had one of those on July 29th. We went from negative 7% in June to positive 7%, actually more than positive 7%, in July. That sets up the odds that if we're at all average from here, we could see substantial stock market returns over the next one, three, six, and 12 months. This sets up the potential danger that combines with danger number one. If we continue to get bad reports, we could see some of the red instances on this chart, where on the one-month horizon we fell 5%, or on the three-month horizon we fell 3%. That could happen again. We could see another test of some of the lows that earnings are really affirming right now.
If you look at the Nasdaq, for example via QQQ, you can see we hit a beautiful bottom on June 16th, and we've retraced over 38% from there. But with some of these reports coming in hot, or expected to come in hot, we could quickly see a retracement, not just down to the 318 level for the Nasdaq but maybe even back to 299, or a retest of that bottom at 268. Based on this chart, though, we should probably be anticipating green if we hold and get in.
That sets up the big next danger, which is not being in this market. Yes, there can still be bad news, but all signs point to this: over time, even if it takes a little longer than expected, inflation is probably going to go down. This economy is still killing it. Earnings are holding up, spending is holding up, jobs are holding up. Yes, that means the Fed is going to talk a little more dirty to us, but all it's going to do is give us more of a buying opportunity. And no, I don't just mean a buying opportunity to get in with me on my Series A or to get into the courses on building your wealth and those market open live streams, which we're doing for course members. Use that coupon code down below. I mean a buying opportunity in the market.
Folks, if you found this video helpful, do me a favor: hit the like button, share the video, and subscribe, because we've got to get back to growing.
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